here. I also concluded with: "If I do create another post to add to the nutball supersystem it will be a table of how often opponents need to fold to 2x,3x,4x and 5x all in bets so that semibluffs break even given each individual semibluff's odds to win on the flop and then again on the turn. "
Here you go!
However, on the rare occasion that I do decide to bet with bottom or middle pair if opponent just calls I may be likely to shove any turn card against the right kind of opponent and the right stack sizes. If a call by opponent usually means a draw or medium strength hand and I think he will fold maybe 60% of the time, I may shove if that is effectively 2 times the pot. But whether I hit or not, I will shove. A shove may only be 2 times the pot on the turn so I really do have 20% equity since on 7K2 flop opponent isn't going to behave differently if a 8 or 6 or another 2 hits the turn or if it's another card. So if I have 23, 67, 87 or a very strong hand like a set or AK, I could be shoving the turn and have either hit two pair and in rare cases I may have 56 and pick up a 4 or 8 to give me a 16% chance of hitting or 68 or 89 and pick up an open ended draw.... Possibly I pick up a flush draw as well. It will be hard for opponent to call me often enough to break me while also avoiding calling the made hands.
Determining the actual probability opponent will fold is typically done best by looking at the probability opponent will have a pair given his preflop range and given the flop.
But there are a lot of unique flops.
For example, if you have 67s and put opponent on a range of 22+,AJ+,A9s+,KQ,QJ,JT (about 14% of hands) and flop is:
89K
Opponents bet on the flop. If you shove all in what hands will call you? What percentage of hands is that?
If opponent always continuation bets we can't rule out any hand. Even if he does, as long as we can't rule out that he randomizes his bets, or don't know what it means we still cannot say we gained any information. So he could still have any of his top 14% of hands.
So what will he call with?
If he has not seen you move in a lot, he still could call with at least
88,99,KK,AA,AK,KQ
This is only 31% of his hands so he will fold 100% minus 31% or 69%.
Looking at the chart we only need 20% equity when he calls to shove 4 times the pot. We have 31.43% if we have no backdoor flush draw and 34.01% if we DO. We can shove over 5 times the pot.
If opponent calls with ALL of his hands in his range, you have nearly 40% equity on calls, but 0% chance of opponent folding. You can only shove up to 2x the pot against this opponent.
More realistically, opponent will call you with A9s and any pocket pair and AQ if he knows you're a nut AND has big cajones. That would be 70% of the opponents hands or he would only fold 30%. But you would be 40% to win so you could shove 4x the pot. However, that is WITH a backdoor flush draw. Without that backdoor draw, you are at 38% with AQ which means you can only shove somewhere around 3 times the pot. Take out ace queen and you are closer to 35% but your opponent folds 37% of the time so you can shove over 3 times the pot.
Now let's look at the same situation on an 89A flop instead.
Tight opponent will call you with 88,99,KK,AA and A9s+ and AJo+.
Although you are a good 38% to win this time, it represents a larger percentage of your opponent's 44% instead of only 31%. Opponent will fold 56% of the time instead of 69%.
Fortunately it is still enough to shove with just over 5 times the pot.
If opponent calls you with any two you have 37% equity but 0% from folds which means you can only shove only up to 2x the pot yet again.
If opponent calls with any pair he has a wider range to call with since more hands contain an ace than a king 22+,A9s+,Aj+. That makes up 74% of his range which means he will only have a folding hand 26% of the time. You are only 36% equity which is just over 35% so I would be comfortable using the chart and shoving up to 2.5 times the pot, but not much more. If I had the backdoor flush draw, I would have 40% equity so I could shove up to probably over 3.5 times the pot.
What about a raggedy flop?
A 892 flop for example with 67?
Now opponent that would call with any pair can only call with 22+ and A9s. I'm less confident that he'll do so, but he may call with AK and QJ since he'd have to be pretty loose to call with the 33,44,55,66,77 hands. So what I'll do is I'll give him 80% of the credit for calling that loose which means he'll fold 20% of the time that he has QJ and AK. That subtle adjustment bumps up his fold % from 37% to 41% but the equity stays about the same. around 37-38%. I would be comfortable shoving over 3 times the pot but less than 4. With backdoor flush draw I can shove around 5 times the pot. Big difference than when facing an ace high flop where I'm shoving only up to 2.5 times the pot, close to 3.5 with backdoor draw to flush.
If I was to add two face cards on the board with a T9 or JT type hand to draw at the straight you would find you get called even more often against most opponents preflop ranges that are also willing to call with a pair. A QKx flop for example hits AK,AQ,KQ,KJ,QJ,QQ,KK,AA and plenty of hands have draws like AJ,AT. The hands with draws, particularly if they know you shove on semibluffs, particularly when they have a flush draw as well will call you. You may also be drawing to a straight that isn't good when it hits. Since many players play broadway type hands you won't get them to fold very often at all, particularly those who do NOT also play the lower pairs and instead prefer broadway cards to 22-77.
Trying to map out all paired flops, two broadway flops, ace flop, ace wheel draw flops, ace broadway flops, all with monotone, two to a flush, 3 to a flush against a wide variety of opponent's preflop ranges and flop calling shove ranges is exhaustive work, but knowing a few situations like this better than your opponents can at a minimum give you an idea of how to adjust a particular strategy.
A little information is dangerous. I don't doubt that some people could take the supersystem and transform themselves into a winning player very rapidly in spite of a few mistakes. It only really takes one person to make a really dumb call on your large overbet shoves. As a result of them seeing you push so often you can make a LOT more money from this style. A few dumb calls opponents make when you have a monster can make the difference. Not to mention the increased chances of picking up more pots on your continuation bets.
However, If you aren't aware that overbetting too much can result in lost money, and tighter preflop opponents on flops that have a higher chance to connect with them may result in worse profits, opponents can easily adapt and beat you using the traditional semibluff shove style of the supersystem. And what about players that rarely 3bet unless they have a monster? You are shoving and they are calling 90% of the time and you are drawing slim which means you have less equity and a low fold percentage. If you are shoving even 2 times the pot you may be in deep trouble and be losing quite a bit of money with this move.
That doesn't mean this style can't be ridiculously profitable with the right adjustments to shove less often on draws and try to show down draws more while shoving more often with the twopair+ hands, and to mix it up and play some small ball for quite awhile before going back to it. However, if you aren't aware of how to adjust to break even on your semi bluffs and you don't try to adapt to your opponents you may easily get too carried away.
Overall though if you DO learn to fine tune this strategy so that semibluffs break even, you have a strong likelihood of powering table a high percentage of the time, and getting action far more often when you do have a hand and opponent has a little piece of the flop.
If for example you thought opponent would fold 80% of the time to a shove but you had nothing but a backdoor straight flush draw, you can eyeball the changes in the chart and imagine that you probably could still shove 3 times the pot and be okay. It's just a rough ballpark guess. Out of curiosity I looked it up and the actual math says 5 times the pot would be break even if he'd fold 80% of the time... If you thought 3 was the number you'd still be making profitable decisions. You may miss out on some more shoving opportunities but that isn't a terrible thing.
However, if he'll only fold 70% you can only push for about 3 times the flop. Slight differences in your estimation of how likely opponent is to call could be trouble, when you are drawing so slim against a call, but even if you keep this in mind, a conservative estimate would still allow you to capitalize off of it often enough. You may move in on a flop for 2.5x, while trying to get more in smaller pots before shoving (such as attempting a check raise rather than open shoving).
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