Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Squeeze play all in 20% raise, 20% caller

We will continue the all in squeeze play series and start with the same framework we used in  the 2x pot squeeze play facing 10% hands, only this time we will use 20.36% hands or
22+,A9+,KJ+,QJ,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s
Since last time 50% of hands worked out to be close to equilibrium, we will start there.
50% of this range is 66+,AJ+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs.
Once again, we need to win 1/3rd of the time we are called to have a profitable shove.
That means shove:66+,A4,A5,A7+,K9+,QT+,A2s+,K3s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s.
The weird relationship with A6 vs A4 and A5 means A4 and A5 because of wheel possibilities is actually better to shove. A6 is not a profitable shove bu A4 and A5 is.
Well this shove range wins .33325x pots on average per shove with 26.4% of hands yielding 0.088 pots or about .66 big blinds per hand dealt in this situation.


I don't know if this is optimal, but right now I don't feel like doing all the work. Shoving with any two I approximated the solution as 6% of hands. So if opponent calls with 99+,AQ+,ATs+,KQs or 88+,AQ+,AJs+,KQs or something to that extent or tighter you can shove with any two.

Approximate Optimal Shove*:66+,A4,A5,A7+,K9+,QT+,A2s+,K3s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s.
Approximate Optimal Call*:is 66+,AJ+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs.
Any two if opponents Call ranges are this tight or tighter:99+,AQ+,ATs+,KQs

Assuming it's close enough until I do the work to prove otherwise which I don't feel like because the advantage for a better strategy if there is one will probably be pretty small. It is far worth my more on my time to get to the other situations of 30%, 40%, 50%, any two and then repeat at 3x, 4x and 5x pot than to make sure these strategies are all perfect. Afterall, your opponent probably won't be perfect anyways, and you probably won't remember all of these anyways, so since it's just to get a "feel" for how to shove in a few spots so you have more accurate poker intuition, perfection is not the goal.

2 comments:

  1. On the off chance that your cards aren't right, don't fuss! Rather, consider how to play them better and accomplish the outcomes you need.
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