If you are right about opponent having nothing, often times floating to "represent a draw" will allow you to see both the turn and the river for only a single flop bet if you are on a longshot draw like a gutshot or backdoor draw. This gives you extra equity on your bluffs on the turn if it fails and also gives you the option to occasionally check the turn so opponents can't easily check raise you off of good draws if you pick up a draw and since the draw is a longshot, you will often get paid off while you also may be able to bluff profitably if the draw hits.
Tournament poker edge has a good article on floating. However, I actually think it can be used more liberally, particularly if you play tight preflop such that you always play a strong preflop hand that has a greater than 50% chance of being best given the preflop action with a mixture of both low and high cards so you cannot be read.
It can be used liberally if you play looser than that preflop too but only if opponents do not play optimally or there are both antes and blinds.
I think there are actually 3 types of flops to float, but each of them must be approached differently to be used effectively, and they should not be done with just any hand you have, particularly if you don't have a good feel for opponents, they may not need to be done at all. But they can be done in a way that can add a LOT of balance to your play and difficulty to your opponents to put you on a hand.
1st)As the article describes a well defined board or "static" board (way ahead or way behind situations). The kind of board you'd slow play if you hit the flop.
AKK flop. AA8 flop or A88 or A82 with no flush potential. a 55J flop is pretty "static" but not quite as much Even jacks full on that flop is vulnerable to QQ hitting a 2 outer and A5 is vulnerable to any pair hitting a two outer as well as flush draws. A 552 flop is only "semi-static" since many hands like an overpair would probably still stay in and a high card on the turn could significantly change the equity in the hand.
But let's say we have a A88 flop.
If opponent has 99 it will be hard to continue knowing there may be multiple streets of betting. Whether you have KQ or 22 you can probably get opponents off the hand without an ace. As these flops are well defined, your hand doesn't matter on these really. Just the opponent and whether or not he has it. Either check/fold these flops if you miss or if you want to be tricky and difficult you can float. Call for information then either bluff the turn or give it up to a bet.
A call or fold is really the only play that makes sense on this type of board unless opponents have seen you 3bet with a monster before. If opponent checks you also should typically check these flops as a general practice and not continuation bet if you are in position. When you have a decent hand you want to get it to showdown without risking a lot. When you have a monster you want to let opponent catch up and when you have nothing you want it to look like you're slow playing so your bluff is more believable on the turn.
Side note: Well defined flops favor the out of position player since no card will provide information on how it helped opponent and so positional advantage doesn't necessarily apply and being the first in to bet or even double barrel bluff is more likely to be successful.
2nd) A draw heavy board
In this case the float is not designated as an automatic "bluff" on the turn but a strategic one that only develops if the board is likely to look scary to opponent's likely range of hands. If you do not actually have a draw, you are going to "float" the flop as if you do. If opponent checks you are NOT going to bet UNLESS it looks like you caught your draw. In addition to the possibility that you catch runner runner or maybe you pair one of your overcards to the board and have a chance at winning by showing the best hand, you also have more "outs" to a profitable bluff. If there are two cards of the same suit on board, there are 11 cards in the deck that would provide a potential flush. There is an over 20% chance that it hits by the turn and if opponent checks the turn you may see the river. There is over 40% chance that it hits by the river.
In the case of a draw heavy board you should either have a hand that is probably 2nd best but still has a chance of winning at showdown against AK... like 44 or 77 or 45 or 67 on a 56J flop, or a any type of draw, even a gutshot or longshot 3 cards to both a straight and flush like 45 of spades if there is both a spade and either a 2,3,6 or 7. Or if you have 46 of spades you need a spade and a 3,5 or 7 since you want the potential to turn an open ended draw at least. If another low card comes, your low pair may actually be good. But you still usually should still act as if you are playing the obvious draw since it doesn't probably seem to make sense to play AJ or QQ that way. An opponent who has Ace King may be stunned if you win at the river and stayed in for one or two bets post flop without a set, but what he doesn't realize is you were planning on bluffing much stronger hands than 44 out a good percentage of the time, and you only stayed until river because the opponent made the showdown cheap enough.
You are probably usually checking the turn on these boards even after floating the turn and you may be checking the river if you don't improve or you don't see a scare card. Depending on opponent you may bluff the river anyways if opponent checks again and isn't the type to check and call to bluff catch.
The strength of floating here is not being able to bluff as much as it is in getting a cheap showdown with a hand that still has a chance to win while mixing in SOME bluffs occasionally to make a slightly unprofitable call slightly profitable.
Sidenote:Draw heavy boards and "dynamic" boards, especially both favor the in position player since there will likely be new information on each street that has a high chance of changing the strength of the hand no matter how hard you hit the flop. A straight can be vulnerable to a higher straight hitting their draw or a flush or board pairing to potentially make a fullhouse. A set can be vulnerable to a straight or flush.
3rd) A not well defined board or "dynamic" board
If the board comes down ten high or lower with potential straights and flush draws (or ten high without them), the winning hand is probably not yet well defined. This benefits players in position as they have the ability to read opponent after conditions change. If a scare card to the board such as a higher card comes you can bet if opponent checks to you or bluff raise if he bets as it doesn't make sense that he would bet ten high flop and King turn unless he was just continuation betting the flop and hit one of his 6 outs. But if opponent is raised on the flop he will probably have to fold unless he has a king. So it's worth staying in. There are 16 cards in the deck that are scary for someone with T9 on 9 high flop. If one of these cards DONT come but opponent checks, you still should be able to bet some of the time and win against the opponents who Cbet AJ+,KQ,etc and give up on the turn. If one of those cards DONT come but opponent bets, you fold.
Hands to float:
Double back door draws.
You don't usually want to float without at least some chance of winning vs two pair. Regardless of flop, I like floating with 3 cards to a flush and 3 cards to a straight. This gives you as many as 27 cards that will at least give you 4 or 5 outs against most of opponent's hands on the turn. Even if you hit one of these cards you aren't that likely to hit the river, but you are likely enough where if you also can win pots often enough on bluffs and/or semibluffs and/or get paid off when you hit you may be able to turn this marginally unprofitable decision profitable, and you will tend to get action when you actually have a hand because you are mixing it up and staying in after the flop often enough to seem overly loose.
The bet has to be about half the pot or else I have to have a good feel for opponent.
On boards that do NOT have a lot of potential scare cards like ace or king high boards without obvious flush draws I will only float if opponent is a pretty ABC player who continuation bets or bets for information a lot but check/folds the turn a lot. I will tend to bet when checked to. If improve my draw to 8 outs or more on the turn, I will usually call an audible and take the free card to avoid being check raised and consider reserving my bluff for the river, or not at all. That way my opponent is likely to try to bet for value or bluff river and if I miss it only cost me a single flop bet call. If I hit my opponent will not be afraid of the straight or flush so he is more likely to pay me off. If I hit a low pair I often will also take the free card and consider calling a bet on the river if my opponent is aggressive enough to try to keep firing with ace high.
Floating on King or Ace or Queen high boards with a backdoor draw is even better when you can alsorepresent a different drawing hand like if you have 89 of spades and flop is T of clubs, 4 of clubs and 5 of spades. Depending how loose I've been playing, opponent could put me on 67, 36, 23,45,34,56 for a much better draw, or a club draw or even over cards.
If opponent has 22,33,66-99, T9, T8, AT,KT,QT or even JJ on a T45 flop, there's a lot of potential scarecards that could come that I could realistically act as if I had them.
This way, if the "float" fails and opponent bets I may have picked up a draw and have the odds to try to hit runner runner. I may be able to semibluff occasionally even. If the turn card is any club or any number of possible scarecards, It may be a good card to try to bluff. If opponent continues betting on a Ten high board and again on the Ace on the turn, his story short of having Ace King or Ace Queen and Cbetting doesn't make sense so I don't mind 3bet raising the turn after floating here but a particular scare card hitting is the only spot that I would consider raising on the turn after floating unless opponent was regular double barreler.
If you pick up a draw on the turn and opponent continues, you can still call even though you don't have the pot odds provided you try to bluff at a few rivers occasionally.
Hands To Float:
Middle Strength Hands
Middle strength hands can be floated with the idea that you are trying to check the turn and induce enough bluffs on the river to overall see a cheap showdown and possibly win the pot and you may add the occasional bluff in there in select spots as well, particularly ON the river itself if it will get enough higher middle strength hands to fold and it figures to be better than calling and is consistent with the story of either slowplaying or hitting a draw depending on what makes the most sense.
Many times you will have to float the turn only to give up at some point in the hand if the board increases it's overcards to your pocket pair from one to two or increase straight possibilities and/or flush possibilities or if opponent's action represents a high probability of having you beat where previously it did not.
If you are going to float with a pair the higher the pair the better. With 2 suits to a flush you may call a bit more often if you have a pocket pair that contain that suit because you can now semibluff the turn as if you hit the flush with outs if opponent doesn't buy your story, and if the board pairs or was already paired or if you hit your set you may have outs to full house if opponent just hit the flush.
If you are going to float with a pair on 3 cards to a flush you probably need an overpair like QQ or top pair with ace or king draw to the flush since you don't know if opponent has flush or draw to a higher flush with one or two overcards like AK to your QQ and you don't know if opponent already has flush and you are drawing or even if your outs are live. It's hard to get paid off if you hit and hard to avoid paying off opponent. Just calling is one way to get information, potentially give it up on certain turn cards (like an ace or a king and opponent still betting), and potentially see a fairly cheap showdown.
Hands To Float:Monsters - Of course you also will float with your monsters given the context of the flop. While most of the time two pair or any set is a monster on a 567 with 2 suits it is only a strong hand with dangers to the straight, flush, draws to straights or flush and higher two pair to your two pair or two pair to your set has outs, and non flush draws may have backdoor draw to flushes.
Conversely on a A72 rainbow flop or K72 flop, AK is a monster relatively speaking. There is no action killer coming and there is no card that really should scare you. Of course hitting trips or twopair without possibility of being counterfeited or hitting a fullhouse is usually a monster with very little chance opponent beats you or draws out.
Either top pair on a dry flop (maybe not always a monster) or an overpair on a dry flop is close enough of a monster to just call. Sometimes the turn will no longer allow you to slowplay but if you are going to float with air you also need to be floating with strong hands. Similarly, if you are going to check behind with strong hands you also should delayed continuation bet or delayed steal by checking and betting the turn on the same kind of flops.
Hands to Float:
Obvious Draws
Sometimes you will represent the obvious draws, and sometimes you will have it. Although sometimes you can bet and raise with the draws sometimes you should also call so opponents won't know what a call means. Are you drawing? Are you representing a draw and backdoor or gutshot drawing? Are you slow playing a monster? Are you slow playing twopair or better? Are you floating with air? Are you calling with a middle strength hand?
Hands to not float:
You can't always float or it will make the double barrel bluff too profitable for opponent. Of course, then you can mix in the double float but that complicates matters. Sometimes you need to play the hands aggressively, and sometimes just finishing the hand on the flop rather than small ball may be a better approach. Usually though you want to be aggressive with only your strong hands that stand up well against calls and reraises by opponents as well as bluffs since opponents have the ability to raise you off the hand when you have a draw or middle strength hand and if you get opponent to fold, you don't get any showdown value out of hands that may otherwise have some.
However, sometimes aggressively raising the worst of your "medium strength hands" will get other medium strength hands to fold where as not doing so would not. And sometimes when either stacks are deep enough to still show down or the aggression ends up with the all in types, your best of medium strength hands could be mixed in if opponents think your raises usually mean bluffs and he may accidentally give you value not only on monsters but on medium strengthed hands by calling with ace high type hands. Sometimes you need to get draws out yourself or you should just play the hand fast and semibluff straight away on the flop I used to obsess over floating but it's not that great of a move if everyone knows about it. On the well defined flops like AA8 you might occasionally play 22-66 fast as well as any ace, 88 and "bluff" hands like QJ which while it may seem pretty weak, on that flop it's actually the second highest non pair next to king high hands, may get lower pocket pairs to fold and still has outs to the "hero calls" players make with the low or mid pocket pair and should easily get any King hand of opponent to fold, but doesn't have enough show down value to really matter.
Adding Outs:
When you play certain draws there are other potential "scare cards". These "scare cards can in a sense be "extra outs" such that when they hit, you win if they are scary enough to get opponent to fold often enough for bet to profit.
Outs need to be added strategically and the story your hand is telling needs to make enough sense that opponent isn't likely to pick you off. If you play tight enough preflop it may be more conceivable that you could be slow playing a monster, and you will be often enough that your "floats" will represent strength a high enough percentage of the time that you may not necessarily need a "scare card" to hit.
Even still, in these situations you need a method to make sure you don't bluff too much or too little so you must be very calculated about it so that your play is mathematically correct enough to add value.
Optimal River Bluff To Value Bet Frequency
Based purely on mathematical game theory, if you are to bet half the pot on the river, you should try to increase your outs by 66.67% so that you bluff 40% of the time that you bet (if you have 8 outs you should "add" 5 outs and 1/3rd of the time on a 6th outs you may "add" a 6th out). If you are going to make a potsized bluff on the river, you have a bluff around 1/3rd of the time or increase the outs you have by 50% by picking out cards to bluff at. If you are going to make 2x pot bluff on river you should increase outs by only 33% so that you bluff 1/4 or 25% of the time that you bet. If you are going to make a 3x pot bet on river, 20% of the time you bet is a bluff, or increase outs 25%. The greater the hand you are drawing to, the larger the bet should be, provided opponents don't know that and can't just raise you off of your small bets. If your bets on the river when you have it are always the best hand, you should plan on betting the maximum and your bluff frequency should only increase by 1/ your stack size as a multiple of the pot plus 1.
9x the pot all in push means you only increase outs 1/10= 10% or bluff around 9% of the time that you bet.
Your opponent should call you such that your bluffs break even. So if the bet is a pot sized bet, opponents should call you half the time or with the top 50% of his hands he will have in that scenario. If the bet is 2x pot you can win the pot twice and lose the 3rd so opponent should have a hand to call you 1/3rd of the time. 9x opponent should call you 10% of the time.
With that theory comes the realization that if opponent will call you too often, you shouldn't bluff at all and thus probably shouldn't even call the turn unless the bet is 1/4th the pot or unless he'll call a big over bet if you hit. If opponent will fold to any scare card you might bluff more often and choose as many scare cards as he'll fold to. However, if opponent is good or you unknown, this is the "optimal" amount to bluff. So if you have 8 outs, pick 4 outs to bluff at as well on the turn if you are calling a bet and betting a pot sized bet on the river. You will bet the pot on 24% of river cards and so you can call a decent bet on the turn. If your bluffs break even, your made hands add value so you should win and get opponent to call the river's pot 50% of the time that you hit. So 50% of the river pot should be added in implied odds. So if you are facing a pot sized bet the river bet will be 3 times the turn and get called half the time or add 1.5 in added value. Rather than getting 2 to 1, you are gettin 3.5 to 1 and thus you only need to hit your "outs" 22% of the time. This seems ridiculous, but you can actually just barely call a pot sized bet with 8 outs on the turn and make money from that decision if you play this way.
Against opponents who fold too often, you can bluff a larger percentage of hands and should typically aim for smaller sized bluffs assuming they are still as effective since you are not looking to break even on bluffs against these opponents, but exploit and profit on bluffs.
On the Flop And Turn
It's important to know this river bluff to value bet ratio math does NOT apply on the flop and turn.**
On the flop and turn you should actually be staying in much more frequently in theory disproportionally to bet sized because of the ability for bluffs to make a hand, bluffs to be made on multiple streets and increasing bet sizes and either you or opponent being on a draw which may add for bluff opportunities and chances to win with hands that don't seem all that great on the flop. The average "optimal" frequency is staying in on some capacity in about 70% of all flops and 70% of all turns but that requires a much tighter preflop strategy and is far too often against most opponents who don't play optimally, and it requires creative ways for you to pick up chips such as using the river math to balance the bluffs and value bets, fight for equity in the hand and find ways to stay in strong.
**The only way it could apply is if you were pushing all in with your unbeatable monster hands where opponent cannot draw you out and you bluffed proportionally with pure bluff hands in the same manner that depended on the size relative to the pot. So if you pushed all in for 4 times the pot with an unbeatable monster hand, you need to add bluffs such that you increase your all in hand range by 20%. Thus if you calculated that an unbeatable monster flop made up 2% of all flops, you should have a pure "Mike Matusow Blow up" style bluff on 0.4% of all flops. How the hell you calculate that I have only the faintest idea** The alternative to "unbeatable hand shoves" is balancing the very longshot draw shoves in with roughly the same odds of drawing out to opponent's calling range. So if the monster shoves have an average of 85% equity against calling range, you need hands with 15% chance of winning vs the calling range. Then you can actually mix in those crazy drawing slim hands like bottom pair or gutshot provided you only do it the very small percentage of all flops you see to balance your monsters. Good luck with that.
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