The 1st post that outlines the SuperSystem hand ranges and strategy.
The 2nd post looks at the possible move of shoving in on the turn with semibluffs and introduces the opponent's counter strategy of calling the flop to trap as a potential hazard of this strategy.
The 3rd post attempts to balance out the ratio of semibluffs to made hands (2pair or better). It does this to fix the leaks that may occur as a result of pushing too often on the turn with a draw while not getting action when you hit your draw on the turn. While one possible way that I did not discuss to do this to very rarely but with the correct mathematical proportion to use scare cards to occasionally bluff shove the turn, you also need to have a real hand often enough to make this strategy profitable.
Edit: Added another post which I constructed a Supersystem Semibluff chart listing the probability your opponent needs to fold with given odds of catching your draw to shove to various multiples of the pot size.
Now we are going to sum up how to specifically implement the strategy with a buy in full of opponents who bought in for 100 big blinds.
Outs
System is designed to shove with suited connectors that have a gutshot draw or better. However, flopping lower and middle pair hands are not played as aggressively since they have zero outs to sets and better hands and have enough show down value that you may want to keep the pot small and see if you can improve. Occasionally you can play gutshot draws slowly to improve the strength of your semibluffs against opponents who are more likely to call you or to use for bets closer to 4.5x the pot. Conversely against opponents who are more likely to fold or in larger pots against opponents who will still fold 60% of the time you may be willing to play bottom pair hands and even backdoor straight AND flush draws fast. (If you have 78 of spades if there is a 5,6,9 or ten and one spade it is a backdoor straight and flush draw)
Bet Frequency
Continuation bet the flop nearly 90% of the time. Any pair, any draw, overcards, and any board that isn't likely to have connected with your opponent's hand range.
Bet Sizes
Doyle Considers "pot size bets" to be a reasonable bet. I believe preflop a 3 or 4 big blind bet plus 1 to 2 additional big blinds for every limper would also be "reasonable" for Doyle as it creates larger pots to shove all in with. Shoving all in for up to just over 4 times the pot on the flop is also acceptable if you have a draw or a made hand (two pair or better) and opponent who will fold 60% of the time to such a bet.
The Guide below is to identify the minimum threshold shoves against single opponent who will call our shove 40% of the time so that our semibluffs break even on average.
Single raise preflop:
After 4+ limpers, use a large isolation reraise of 8 big blinds with hands like T9s and low suited connectors as well as strong hands like Ace King and Big pairs. Pot size 22 or larger with 1 caller on flop you can open shove.
Single raise preflop, single caller creates a pot of 7.5 plus bet of at least 4 big blinds and raise of at least 12 creates enough to 4bet shove against opponent who frequently 3bets flops.
If there are straddles in your game and players have straddled after an initial raise of around 6+ big blinds you can 3bet flop shoving on flop if opponent bets 8+ on flop.
3bet Raise Preflop:
3bet preflop occasionally from big and small blind and with standard bets you have large stack sizes to check raise shove flop.
3bet preflop creates large enough stack sizes to 3bet shove.
You can actually open shove flops that have been 3bet if you or opponent have under 90 big blinds to start the hand.
You can open shove flops if there were a few limpers prior to the raise who folded.
4 Bet Raise Preflop:
If you get a little crazy and 4 bet to 15 big blinds or more and opponent calls there is enough in the pot to open shove on draws.
Turn Play:
On the Turn, if you are just called on the flop and you have a good draw you can shove every turn card for up to twice the pot if you have a preflop hand selection that has the right ratio of monsters to draws. This requires shorter stacks or more money in the pot though.
The shove the turn strategy is ideal for the opponent who tries to draw or call with medium pairs but who won't call an all in with less than top pair.
For example, preflop raise of 4x for 9.5 in the pot, 10 bet on the flop plus caller only puts 30 in the pot with 86 behind. Your stack size is probably too big to shove in this spot 100% of the time with the typical hand range. To execute a turn shove, you need a 3bet preflop and/or on the flop. You might intentionally size your flop bet to set this up to be less than 2x the pot.
Say there is 19.5 pot on the flop with 91 behind. An open shove would be too large. A bet of 20 would create 71 behind and 60 pot. A bet of 10 would create a turn of 40 with 81 behind. So you should bet a little more than 10 so you can shove the turn. If opponent knows the rest of the money is going in, he can't simply see he is getting 3:1 on his money and call if he has a 1/4 or 25% chance to win like he could on the river. So opponent may fold or push a lot here.
Preflop Theory
Preflop Hand Selection Balanced Turn Shove:
One possible way to play against the "problem" opponent who tries to call just pairs on the flop rather than fold or play back at us and is able to fold if we hit, call if we didn't... is to make sure that we have a strong hand often enough to compensate. This way we make enough from our strong hands to make up for the semibluffs. This is a preemptive way to prepare to try to avoid difficult decisions and varying play. In order to balance our hand range so that we can shove on the turn for twice the pot anytime we have a set or twopair we must check our preflop hand range. This way opponents can't trap us with a pair and fold if obvious draw hits, else call the shove.
Note: Added hands should not be played as fast as draws and two pairs or better with designated suited connectors and pairs.
If we DO elect to shove gutshot draws:
Early position:
5 pairs to 4 suited connectors TT+,45s,56s,67s,78s. I like to represent both low card flops and high card flops so I prefer the low connectors. They also are less likely to run into higher straights by opponents playing AK or KQ or QJ or JT than the higher ones.
Add AJ+ to make up 7.05% of hands
Although QJ is not a suited connector we can also add AK and AQ which occasionally will be suited so overall it's close enough. This will be 7.05% of hands.
Middle Position:
7 to 6: 88+,45s,56s,67s,78s,89s,T9s. We should also add in AT+, KQ,QJ,JT to make up 13.35% of hands
Late position: 13 to 10
22+,45s,56s,67s,78s,89s,T9s,36s,57s,68s,79s. Plus basically any halfway decent hand. You should play close to 50% of hands in late position in my opinion but at least 20%.
Alternative strategy if you elect to not play gutshots fast.
Early Position: TT+ 45s,56s,67s,78s,89s,T9s,JTs,QJs plus AQ+
Middle Position: 88+,45s,56s,67s,78s,89s,T9s,36s,57s,68s,79s,8Ts. plus AJ+,KQ,QJ,JT for 13.65% of hands.
Late Position: This is basically any pair and any suited connector or suited gapper including those around the edges. Plus any halfway decent hand.
Non Balanced Range Strategy:
The above "balanced" is just a baseline from which to be more challenging to play a certain way against. It is more of a "defensive" way to play. If you are an adaptable player you shouldn't have to worry too much about balancing your ranges, but can use it to understand how far to adapt from that baseline. Fortunately, in reality plenty of opponents will call a large bet on the flop but fold on the turn to a shove. Additionally FEW opponents can make the fold when you hit the turn every time without also being susceptible to bluffs when you simply pair your card. The turn bluff shove to these opponents can simply be done to 1 pair hands where it looks like you may have a straight.
For example if on 67K flop a 5 comes, they may think you have 89 or 56 or 67 or 34 and fold AK. But you may just have 45 and just hit only a pair. Or if a T comes they may think you have 98 or 67. If a 9 comes you could have 8T or 97 but you may have 45,56 78 or 9T. So if they are the type that can fold a pair, you can shove any "scare card" that looks like you have a straight or two pair rather than a draw otherwise shut down.
If they are the type to call with pairs to shoves you only shove the straight and two pair more often, draws less often. If they are the type to fold pairs to shoves, you can shove semibluffs more often, draws less often. Preferably one where you pick up additional outs. If a 3 cards to a flush comes you may represent that you hit your flush when you really still have open ended straight draw plus outs to a low flush that may be good.
Additionally, plenty of opponents will fold often enough on the flop that we can suspect their hand range to be strong enough for us to avoid shoving, while other opponents will call too often on the flop with medium strength hands where we can easily semibluff far more often.
Rather than balance your preflop pairs and suited connectors such that you have the right ratio to shove the turn for 2x the pot you might instead elect to play the turn cautiously or play the flop differently under these conditions. Or you might just play an entirely different strategy or "gear" against the opponents who tend to just call.
However, in either case it's important to at least know good poker theory preflop.
Equilibrium theory is about raising with a 50% chance of having the best hand (45% or even 40% with antes).
[9 players left: 77+ AK T9s JTs QJs KQs 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s] 10 handed only
8 players left: 55+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs
7 players left: 22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs
6 players left: 22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s
5 players left:
22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs
Hijack (4 players left):
22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s
Cutoff:
22+ AQ+ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s A2s A3s A4s A5s 76o 65o
Button:
22+ AJ+ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s A2s A3s A4s A5s 98o 87o 76o 65o A6s A7s T9o Jto Qjo Kqo Blind vs blind:
22+ A9+ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s A2s A3s A4s A5s 98o 87o 76o 65o A6s A7s T9o Jto Qjo Kqo T6s J7s Q8s K9s 32s 53s 54o T8o 97o 86o 75o 64o Kjo Qto J9o Q9o Kto J8o T7o A4o A6s A7s
You should typically 3bet (raise the initial raiser) with the upper HALF of your opponent's range of hands. If you do not know there range, you can assume they raise with the hands listed here and raise with the upper half.
If you are leading out with the above hands, you should be prepared to reraise an opponent's raise (4bet) with between 1/3rd and 1/4th of the hands you raise with to prevent opponent from being able to 3bet with any two and exploit you.
9 players: JJ+,AKs
8 players: JJ+,AKs (maybe if both tens are matching color you also push)
7 players: TT+,AKs
6 players: JJ+,AK (and two red tens)
5 players: TT+,AK,AQs
4 players: 99+,AK,AQs bluff:T9s (you could put AJs or 88 if you like instead)
3 players: 88+,AQ+ bluff:T9s (you could put AJs or 77 if you like instead)
2 players left:55+,AJ+ Possibly remove some of the lower pairs and AJ and replace them with bluffs.
Again, this is a "poker theory" and balanced way to play. I believe it is much better to play exploitable and just be prepared to shift gears and adapt and anticipate your opponents trying to adapt to exploit whatever current image you have. Afterall, its' a competition. You don't play to neutralize your opponent and win a small amount but to beat him.
Preflop Exploitable Strategy:
In reality position is a huge advantage. As a result, opponents can and should fold more often in early position and in the blinds. As a result, later position can and should raise more often. However, with the blinds getting a discount to call and better pot odds they may be tempted to call anyways and defend. As long as you don't fall into patterns of always raising the blinds or folding to strength and are aware of how opponents may defend the blinds, this shouldn't be a problem. Don't give opponent the chance to check raise you frequently after defending preflop
Blinds: Play 40% of opponent's assumed range and tend to raise if you can create large enough pot to make all in decisions more likely on flop or turn to neutralize positional advantage on turn and river. Tend to keep pot small if you cannot neutralize edge through all ins.
Out of position: Tend to raise to create pot sizes large enough to get money in preflop or open shove on flop or shove on a check raise if your steal attempt fails. Usually play tightly. The all in move takes away the positional advantage but you probably need a stronger hand to play this way
In position: Tend to just flat call raises and do so with wider range than opponent.
When folded to:
When folded to on the button or cutoff: Raise with virtually any two if antes are in game, raise with 70% of hands if no antes.
Hijack: I'd be willing to add several more hands on Hijack than the "theory" suggests unless the player on the button and/or cutoff tends to flat call a lot in position. I'd be willing to add "trouble hands" like AJ,AT,KQ,KJ,KT although it may be better and more strategic to play offsuited connectors and suited aces and king type of hands instead. Either way adding 5-10% of all hands to your range.
Middle position (5 or 6 players left): I dislike this position even more than early position. In early position at least you can disguise having a number of hands and your raise tends to represent more strength to good players. You also can limp in and stimulate multiway action with connecting hands and hands that play well with multiple callers. If players tend to raise over many limpers you will have a strong enough hand often enough to limp raise with pairs and AK type hands and represent that you were slow playing aces, hopefully after trapping several limpers behind you, or actually have aces or kings. In doing so, you may even be able to bluff raise with suited connector type hands and set up the pot size to be large enough to shove or check raise all in.
There will be enough in the pot generally to make up for hands you folded.
When there are many limpers:
In late position: Many generally like to limp behind. I prefer to raise and inflate the size of the pot and isolate the limpers to a few callers. This is susceptible to someone trapping you so be aware of the fact that you basically have to have AA or KK as a large enough percentage of raising hands to not be too exploitable. So you probably only want to only raise with maybe 5% of hands. Since many good hands that have to fold have plenty of value in multiway pots, you actually want to have either a strong hand or the weaker of the playable hands. A2-A5 offsuit for example plus some suited ace hands are strong heads up hand and still have some chances to continue. They will have some interesting semibluff potential if you hit a wheel draw on the flop but generally are dead meat to the types of hands that will limp raise like AQ, AK,AA,KK. Certainly AJ and AT COULD theoretically call and have you in big trouble, but it isn't like you are going to move all in on a T high or J high flop and if reraised you will fold.
So put in the large isolation raise when you are in position and if you get limp raised simply fold. If you get called, a continuation bet should take it down. If you have medium strength flop for your hand like a wheel draw or low pair (with potential to bust opponent if an ace hits), or an ace, you may wish to simply check, be willing to call a small turn bet and fold river if you don't improve.
Middle position: I like to raise middle position as well since it will tend to be larger and scare out the late position players. However, if my opponents aren't likely to respect this action I either play tighter or simply limp behind with good multiway cards. I also like to trap by limping with QQ and JJ here even though you have a good chance of giving away a lot of value if you can be smart about it you can take a very low risk chance of winning a big pot by either trapping opponent who tries to punish the limpers or if you flop a set or better. I prefer to flat call a preflop raise with JJ+,AK to trap a squeeze play since it is more likely to be a heads up or only 2 opponents where my hand will still be good if I flop an overpair and I may not have to release it as quickly, plus if there is only 1 opponent I may get him bluffing into me.
Early Position: IF there is already a limper or two before me in the first 3 positions to act, I will limp behind and rarely raise. I don't know if someone else has picked up a hand and they may be afraid to raise over two early position raisers. I'd rather limp to trap with AA while also trying to play many drawing hands in a multiway pot. If I am first to act I will limp a lot more than most because I don't want to play a big pot out of position and because I like to limpraise resteal more than most, and because I love playing draws out of position and encouraging passive action. How do you play a one pair hand in multiway pots against a better and a caller? It's hard to raise with many preflop limpers since any one of them could have two pair. So many call. As a result if you have a drawing hand, you can bet small to create profitable drawing opportunities where if you check someone may bet a little bigger. You can draw to your flushes and straights and two pair and bet with a fair amount of confidence if you hit. If it is just you and the blinds, you have position.
If I do create another post to add to the nutball supersystem it will be a table of how often opponents need to fold to 2x,3x,4x and 5x all in bets so that semibluffs break even given each individual semibluff's odds to win on the flop and then again on the turn.
I also may look into providing guidelines for how to adapt to flops and how cautious you should be if an ace high flop vs jack high flop vs two broadway cards on the flop (JTx when you have 98 or QJx when you have T9) vs a particular type of opponent.
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