Saturday, June 20, 2015

From Cash Games To Tournaments

There are many differences between cash games and tournaments, but the biggest difference I have found is the difference between just the blinds and when the antes become involved.

In a cash game if players were equally skilled after the flop, and it folded to you, you'd want to raise such that you have a 50% chance or more of having the best hand. (Plus adding bluff raises. The more opponents fold, the more bluff raises to add)

50% chance hand starts out as favorite opener strategy given X players left to act:
8 8.3% 88+, AJ+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs
7 9.43% 88+, AJ+, KQ, A9s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs
6 10.91% 66+, AJ+, KQ, A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s
5 12.95% 66+, AJ+, KQ, A9s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
4 15.91% 66+, AJ+, KQ,QJ,JT, A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
3 20.63% 55+, AT+,KT+,QT+,JT,A7s+,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
2 29.29% 22+, A9+,KT+,QT+,JT,T9,98,87,76,65,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
1 50% 22+,A2+,K4+, Q8+, J9+,T8+,98,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J5s+,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s,64s+,54s

However, once the antes are involved you are often min raising or 2.5x the big blind raising. As such when you get called by a player not in the blinds, you have around 2.25 blinds dead in the pot plus your opponents 2.25 plus yours. You are getting 2 to 1 on your money and thus can lose that 2.25 big blinds twice and on the 3rd win it and you are break even.

If your opponents always call you only need to be 33% to win. IF opponents properly raise you more as a result of this strategy, you can still raise as long as you have 40% equity. Either way, the point is it is correct to loosen up once the antes are involved. The exception is if you have plans to use a tight image for high risk, high percentage moves in larger pots such as 3bets, 4bets, squeeze plays and "dead money grab" (raise over limpers) or if opponents are aggressive you might just flat call their raises a few times and be willing to resqueeze back over a squeeze play or flat call.

Although 33% chance of starting with the strongest hand is not the same as having 33% equity, it's a good first step and illustrates how your strategy should change when the antes are involved. Also, if opponent's correctly adapt, it becomes incorrect to raise quite this frequently because they more often than not will 3bet you, and you won't be able to have a 4bet hand often enough to make up for it if they correctly adjust. Nevertheless, it's an important starting point from which to establish the theoretical strategy and if your opponents are tighter or looser or aggressive, you can adjust from there.

8) 12.84% 44+,AJ+,KQ,A9s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s+
7) 14.53% 33+,AT+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s+
6) 16.74% 33+,At+,KJ+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s+,98s
5) 19.74% 22+,A9+,KJ+,QJ,A3s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s
4) 24.02% 22+,A5+,KJ+,QJ,JT,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s
3) 30.66% 22+,A2+,KT+,QT+,JT,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,
2) 42.26% 22+,A2+,K8+,QT+,JT,T8+,98,87,K3s+Q6s+,J6s+,T6s+,96s+,85s,75s,64s+
1) 66.67% 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J5+,T7+,97+,86+,J2s+,T3s+,95s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s,43s

3betting is something that also should change as a result of the antes. First, there is still more in the pot proportional to the bets since the bets and 3bets tend to be a bit smaller and the antes are still involved. Secondly, if your opponents correctly open up their hand ranges more to adjust for the antes, it becomes possible to raise them lighter.

Before I continue, please understand how you might deviate from the strategy provided for a greater edge. Always 3betting is not necessarily the most ideal solution in practice. In practice you should probably bluff 3bet a few hands that are normally outside of the playable range to a raise, and flat call with those that are on the bottom half of the 3bet range and mix in some calls and some 3bets with the strongest of hands to veil the strength of what each action means with a greater importance towards getting value over veiling information.

If you have an edge postflop, it's better to keep the pot smaller preflop more often so that you can exploit that edge to a greater extent. If opponent doesn't adapt to the information there's less reason to give information away. If opponent folds too much you can bluff raise more often and if he calls to much you can eliminate bluff raises and always 3bet the entire range.

3bet without antes
Since you are assuming opponents should range with a 50% chance of being best, to put in a 3bet you'll want a 75% chance hand is best preflop (This approximately means your hand has a greater than 50% it's best after an opponent raises)

8) 3.53% TT+,AK
7) 4.03% 99+,AK
6) 4.68% 99+,AQ+
5) 5.59% 99+,AQ+,AJs+,KQs
4) 6.94% 99+,AQ+, ATs+,KTs+,QJs
3) 9.14% 77+,AJ+ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs
2) 13.40% 44+,AJ+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s
1) 25% 22+,A8+,KT+,QT+,JT+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s

Ante stages
Aside from the obvious tournament pressure and players not wanting to play a pot that may risk their tournament life with marginal holdings, 3 betting light also works because of the antes. The added price of the antes does make a difference, and the opponent's hand range in theory SHOULD be larger as well.

Ante stages 3 bet for opponent's likely to call or fold and unlikely to 4bet exploit, or likely to fold too much.

57% of opponent's range when opponent opens with handrange with 40% chance of being best.

40% because at an aggressive table opponents should not actually raise with 33% chance it's best or 50% due to the antes, but around 40%. We 3bet with 57% of opponent's range because the pot odds allows for us to have the pot odds when we're called so we don't have to be a favorite vs opponent's range we just need to be best around 43% of the time.

8) 6.17%    99+,AQ+,ATs+,KQs
7) 6.99%    99+,AQ+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs
6) 8.07%    88+,AQ+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs,JTs
5) 9.55%    66+,AJ+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs
4) 11.67%    55+,AJ+,KQ+,A9s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs
3) 15.00%    33+,ATo+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s
2) 20.95%    22+,A8+KJ+,QJ,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s
1) 34.20%    22+,A2+,K9+,QT+K5s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s

The real ideal solution would look for equity rather than odds hand is favorite but that requires some deep calculations vs various hand ranges. This is close enough to show how we might widen our range.

Flat calling on the button.
As I said, a 33% chance of having the best hand is not the same as having a 33% chance to win. While it's difficult to know what hand range we will be called with if we raised one thing we can do is look at flat calling an opponent's hand range from the button.

This time we will say the opponent doesn't adjust to antes so we are looking at flat calling an opponent with the SAME opening hand range. We are now looking at EQUITY vs that range. Without antes we need about 45% equity. With antes we need about 33%.

Flat from button without antes (45% equity vs range)
8% range: TT+,AQ+,AJs,
9.5% range:TT+,AJ+,ATs,KQs,
11% range:88+,AJ+,ATs+,KQs
13% range:77+,AT+,KQ,A7s+,KTs+
16% range:77+,A8+,KT+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+
20% range:66+,A8+,KT+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+
30% range:44+,A4+,K8+,Q9+,JT,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T9s
50% range:33+,A2+,K7+,Q9+,JT,K4s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s

flat from button when antes are in play (33% equity).

33% equity
8.3% range: 44+,A9+,KT+,K9s,Q9s+
9.5% range: 22+,A2+,KT+,QJ,K4s,Q9s+,JTs
10.91% range:22+,A2+,K9+,Q9+,JT,T9,K2s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s
12.95% range:22+,A2+,K2,Q6+,J8+,T8+,98,Q2s+,J2s+,T4s+,96s+,86s+,76s,
15.91% range:22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J8+,T8+,97+,J2s+,T5s,95s+,85s+,75s+,65s,54s
20.63% range:22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J7,T8,97+,87,J2s+,T6s+,95s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,53s+
29.29% range:22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,95+,85+,75+,65,54,92s+,82s+,73s+,63s+,52s+,43s
50% range:22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2s,T3+,95+,85+,75+,64+,54,92s+,83s+,73s+,62s+,52s+,43s

Note:33% equity assumes after the flop hands are checked down to the river this is not the case and a player should actually adjust for the fact that it is not. This means "trouble hands" with high card and kicker problems become less playable while "implied odds" hands like suited connectors become more playable.

I would rather have a hand with slightly worse equity and use post flop position and skill and ability to have better implied odds and less likely to get trapped for a big pot. Also, because I'm picking specific hands in opener's range some hands may be overvalued against an unknown range and others may be undervalued. This is just a guideline to determine an approximate calling range such that you have equity in the ante stages.

As you get shorter stacked, suited connectors lose a lot of that value and the actual hands should be closer to the solution. As they get even shorter still there are more semibluff opportunities with suited connectors so having a larger probability of being able to make a big move with outs may have enough value to add some of the higher suited connectors again.

Mostly, this is to illustrate how much you should widen your calling range preflop and encourage you to play more hands.

After the flop, not a ton really changes in terms of decisions, other than the fact that the remaining stack size proportional to the pot should always change decisions and what hand strength is "good enough". The antes tends to create far more situations where the stacks are short postflop relative to the blinds.

You may also have to fight a little harder with the worse preflop hand for the 33% equity. So you need to fight to see a showdown or get your money's worth enough to make up for playing more hands. You should work a little harder at getting a cheap showdown as it is of benefit to both you AND your opponent at the expense of all the players not in the hand that have contributed.

One thing that does change slightly is the all in decision. The pot becomes large, much faster proportional to the "big blinds",

Let's consider a 3bet all in. If there are no antes, 2.5x big blinds raise plus blinds equals 4bbs in the pot. If there are antes in the pot 2.5x raise and antes is probably about 5bbs. An all in for 3.5 times the pot without antes would take place if your stack was 14 big blinds. An all in with antes would take place if you had 17.5 big blinds. With antes you can make your move a little sooner or loosen up your range of push hands at a given level of big blinds.

All in preflop as the first one in also changes with antes. A preflop move all in with 15 big blinds increases stack by 10% without antes. Preflop with antes that same 15% big blind all in increases stack by 15%. You could increase your stack by 10% if you open shoved with 22-25 big blinds. This means your moves can take place sooner or with a wider range of hands if you'd like.

The other key difference is a tournament player could accumulate every single chip and win and only get 25% of the prize money. Every all in that is risked actually benefits the players not in the pot slightly because they move closer to the money. While this can be taken to an extreme and entire models can be made off of this to determine decisions, I'd hesitate to go that route completely.

The ICM model is basically if everyone flipped a coin all in for there chips what would be the probability that each remaining player finished in each place, and as a result, what would the overall payout be. That carries with it the assumption of equal skill. Even those who try to quantify a skill would say that a skilled player has a 60% chance of winning those coinflips.

In reality you are taking low variance edges over hundreds of hands until ultimately the blinds and antes force an all in decision. A good player may have doubled or tripled his stack without high varience. In theory if the blinds went up extremely slowly, a player could turn down any time he risked too much of his bankroll so that he never went broke and even the smallest skill advantage would mean a first or second place finish everytime if he were the only one to play that way.
Well the blinds and antes don't go up that slow, but even so, considerable value can be added.

ICM will teach you that only decisions should change close to the money and close to the final table but for the most part giving up an edge in exchange for avoiding all in confrontation isn't advantageous. But that's based on equal skill. When you introduce skill, the opposite is true.

Losing your chance to play during the ante stages is giving up a huge amount if you have a skill edge. The opportunity cost is not worth the chips you gain by taking risks. If you can win a net of 3 times what's in the middle per rotation in the ante stages, you never have to be all in to win a tournament. If you can win 2 times what's in the middle you probably will never have to be all in more than once. I think winning 2 times what's in the middle per rotation is fairly reasonable with the asterisk of doing so may cost you enough volatility that you actually do have to be all in more than once, and your skill edge tends to decrease the later in a tournament you get. However, you still should be able to finish tournaments being all in less than 4 times before the final table even in very large tournaments if you do this well. This probably translates into an over 10% chance of making the final table. If this drops to 6-8% in exchange for a few more wins it is probably worth it. If the field is 500 players in theory you should make the final table just less than 2% of the time. In practice that is not the case for many good players.

Either knowing the ICM solutions for the late stages of the tournament and bubble stages OR taking the approach of high probability of survival, high aggression on the bubble, and patience afterwards until you are then going to take the higher risk aggressive strategy and get a big stack or go home. Then once you have a large enough stack to go on autopilot and basically automatically finish 5th without ever being all in then you can play hyper tight and raise a large amount with JJ+,AK and fold JJ and AK to large shoves and sometimes QQ. You can perhaps widen range a bit in late position and under the gun because under the gun garners more respect and late position when it folds to you doesn't require as strong of a hand to raise or call an all in. You are virtually guaranteed a fighting chance at the final table by this strategy and regardless of how many chips you have the final table is always going to be high varience.

Final table you survive to around 5th place, pick up the aggression dramatically. You also will try to manipulate who you steal from such that all the players end up fighting for second place. You want to keep the shortest stack alive while stealing from the others fairly evenly but trying to prevent anyone from becoming a huge threat. So you might stay away from the second place guy in chips for awhile so as to not let him catch up with a move or two over you and wait to come after him later so he thinks you are staying out of his way and playing tighter against him until the blinds raise and you are maybe 3 handed.

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