Doyle Brunson in his book Supersystem talked about shoving all in on the flop whenever he was raised. He was "continuation betting" on about 90% of the flop. (Actually he called it the turn because terminology was in reverse back then, but he corrected it in his holdem section in supersystem 2). He rationalized that if people played back at them on the flop a few times and got shoved in on, eventually they are going to fold too often to your bets on the flop so you are going to be able to steal more pots.
He was referring to being aggressive preflop and reraising and betting on the flop and moving all in over anyone that 3bet the flop so there already would be a sizable amount in the pot. The question is though if with shallower stacks or more in the pot preflop in modern games can we still pull this style off?
However, the cash games would also play pretty deep so he would have plenty left over to shove. He reasoned that this would allow him to take pots on the flop uncontested like crazy when opponents didn't have much of a hand and get him looser action when he actually had a hand and opponent had something. A lot of these ideas has been proven to be mostly correct with modern game theory and refined further.
Today we are going to look at a super system like strategy. There are a few things to understand.
1)You have to have an idea of how probable it is for opponents to call your shoves, otherwise the equation completely changes.
2)To do this you should have a good idea of preflop hand ranges. The opponents who play very few flops are a lot more likely to have something.
3)You should have a general idea of how well a particular flop connects with opponent.
What we will look at today is just a few general numbers so you can construct more precise principals based upon doing a lot more work. To start with, start an excel spreadsheet.
You need to have data for:
% of time our all in bet gets opponent to fold
amount we win when shove works.
% of time we get called
% equity when called
% losing equity when called
Amount loss we risk being called
Amount we win when called
[get called and win %], [get called and lose%]
notes:
The % of time you get called can be calculated as 1 minus the % of the time the all in bet works.
The % of losing equity when called is simply 1- % equity when called.
The amount we win when called is simply the amount you win when the shove works plus the amount we risk being called.
The get called and win% is equal to % of time we get called multiplied by the % equity when called.
The get called and lose % is simply the % we get called multiplied by the % losing equity when called.
Using this data we have a formula that calculates the total earned in each scenario and adds them up. We want this to equal zero. I won't bore you with the calculations that I have set on the spreadsheet but I'm sure with some work you can figure out how to calculate it.
Okay?
For now let's say we semibluff on average with a 30% chance to win. If opponent calls with a pair and is fairly moderately loose, they might hit a flop they can call an all in with 40% of the time that they go to the flop. This percentage could be closer to 50% if they play tighter preflop but loose enough to call with a pair on the flop.
This equation may change since opponents may be less likely to 3bet the flop that often, so keep that in mind depending on whether it is a 3bet all in or 4bet or an open shove.
What we want to find out is how many times the pot can we shove for before we are break even. We want to seek to break even with our bluffs, also shove in with out hands that are in the lead of our opponent's all in call range, and then "play poker" with the remaining to squeeze whatever equity we can out of the pot.
What we find is that we can bet up to 3 times the pot all in on a semibluff under these conditions if we are 30% to win on average.
From here we can play with the numbers and see how the conditions might change. For example, if we mostly push in with better draws such that we are 35% equity when called, we can push with our semibluffs up to nearly 4.25 times the pot. If we push with only 20% equity against opponent's calling range, we can only push up to 1.87 times the pot. If our opponents fold more to our shoves we can push a little bit more though.
Now depending on our opponent, we might play a wider range of hands. That's mostly baked in to the equation though since 40% of the time he can call an all in.
But here's a guide on the outs and odds of winning.
Also keep in mind backdoor draws
a 67s with a matching 5 of that suit on say a 25Q board even vs QQ provides a 7.34% chance of winning.
That same hand vs AA since runner runner two pair is possible provides a 10% chance of winning. Don't overlook the boost you can get for backdoor draws that are super powerful. Even if there is a few gaps like 69s on that flop vs KK you have a 8.54% chance of winning.
outs chart
Outs On either turn or river
1 out 4.26% (22.5:1)
2 outs 8.42% (10:9)
3 outs 12.49% (7:1)
4 outs 16.47% (5.1:1)
5 outs 20.35% (3.9:1)
6 outs 24.14% (3.1:1)
7 outs 27.84% (2.6:1)
8 outs 31.45% (2.6:1)
9 outs 34.97% (1.9:1)
10 outs 38.39% (1.6:1)
11 outs 41.72% (1.4:1)
12 outs 44.96% (1.2:1)
13 outs 48.10% (1.1:1)
14 outs 51.16% (1:1)
15 outs 54.12% (0.8:1)
16 outs 56.98% (0.8:1)
17 outs 59.76% (0.7:1)
With say 67 on a 45K board if our opponent has Ace-King you actually have about a 35% chance to win because of the possibility of back dooring two pair or trips (on this same flop there is also the back door quad 55 or 44 possibility for split pot against KQ or KJ). If specifically you also have a backdoor flush draw it goes up to 37%. But against a set of 4s you are only 27% to win because if you hit straight, opponent can hit full house on river. Or if opponent hits full house on turn your straight is no good. So the exact odds of improving may be slightly different hand to hand with even the same draw.
It's okay to get a little bit carried away on some hands, but we have to extract enough value to make up for it elsewhere. We want to get as close to break even as possible on our semibluffs even if that may mean losing opportunities at times since the purpose of it is to make money on our big hands and get action.
Doyle also doesn't advocate ALWAYS playing draws fast, but just in case you decide to, it's important to not overplay them too much.
Now let's look at the odds of 67s hitting a pair, flush draw, straight draw, etc
probability of flopping an 8+out draw 21.390%
probability of gutshot draw 14.370%
probability of flopping 2 pair or better 5.582%
[probability of pairing hand on flop 26.940%] - Some pairs will combine WITH draws, and some straight draws will combine with flush draws as well.
[Note: I assumed this data I found online to be accurate. Another website has different data than this suggesting less than 18% chance of flopping an 8 out draw, I'm not sure which is correct. But my initial assumption was that the above data was correct so I will proceed but keep in mind you may have a drawing hand on the flop less often than suggested.]
That means 41.34% of the time we have a hand we can move in with. Doyle Brunson in supersystem mentioned sometimes even moving in with only 3rd pair. This would probably give you 5 outs and possibly some runner-runner back door draws, but it might not and probably isn't necessary. Sometimes we will have a pair in addition to a draw. If we only shove all in with 2 pair or better, or a gutshot draw, or an 8 out draw then of the times we move in on a bluff...
Assuming we are about 80% equity on our two pair hands since top pair will have 5 outs (overpair will have 2 but set we will only have 4 outs), a weighted average approximates about a 34.6% equity given a shove with suited connectors. It probably will be a little bit higher than that BECAUSE the open ended straight draws will usually have backdoor draw to two pair and/or flush draws to win and some of the flush draws will have backdoor straight and two pair possibilities. That may balance out some rare moves with bottom or middle pair where we are probably only 20% to win.
With this calculation and even if our opponent has something he can call with 45% of the time, which requires a fairly tight preflop opponent since he will have to start with a pair (or a flop with one or more broadway cards) we can still move in for around 3.75 times the pot. So either with the added equity of backdoor draws that may increase to 4, OR with the rare move in with bottom pair with only 20% equity we can probably still move in for nearly that amount (but we cannot choose to BOTH move in with bottom pair occasionally AND regularly move in for 4 times the pot).
On low card flops (T high or lower, preferably 9 or 8 and lower) it may be okay to push in with our pairs since we will have 5 outs to an overpair or top pair and will probably have backdoor straight draws as well, plus it is less likely than other flops to hit our opponent so we may get our opponent to fold often enough to pick up enough extra pots to break even. Our opponent will also have to respect the range of hands we could have there as well, and if we play lots of connectors and pairs and few broadway cards, if they don't give us credit we will get enough from when we actually do have a hand like two pair or a made straight on that flop and they call to make it acceptable to push.
Remember, having a backdoor straight AND backdoor flush draw could add as much as 7-10% equity. On flops with one or more high cards we probably shouldn't shove gutshot draws since it is more likely to hit our opponent, and probably should even back off of straight draws. So T9s on a QJ flop isn't the best flop for shoving, especially if there is an ace. Moving in with the low end of the straight draw is okay provided our opponent can't already have a made straight or it isn't likely they have a pair WITH a straight draw. So T9 on a J82 flop is much better than a QJT flop where they can already have AK or KQ.
If you were to make a break even long ball strategy you could also play your big pairs and sets fast where you are virtually a lock to win with occasionally PURE bluffs where you are virtually a lock to lose such that they balance out against an opponent who makes close to optimal calling decisions so that the strategy breaks even. This would allow you to play a few more hands fast and bluffs fast that would make playing against you very difficult.... but it would be very complicated and dangerous if you overplayed bluffs on the wrong flops so getting it right would be very tricky.
The goal is not break even against optimal opponent though. Exploit opponents where you can but have an idea of how to force opponents into situations where best case scenario they break even if they are perfect against your semibluffs. Remember this is against an opponent who only plays a hand such that you can shove for the given multiple of the pot where he will fold about 60% of the time or more. You will have to occasionally NOT semibluff against opponents who will have a hand they can call with more often.
The 3 & 4 Bet Light Preflop Strategy
A similar principal of supersystem can apply preflop in the modern game. Since the game has changed there is an alternative way you can move in on semibluffs. That basically means moving in before the flop when stack sizes are right on 3 bets or 4bets such that you break even or better so that your big hands get action. In tournaments I usually prefer the higher probability of survival so you probably don't want to do this, at least not for the tournament life very often. Also, you probably need a very tight image for good opponents to allow this to work or an opponent who raises or 3bets too many hands.Basically, if you play extremely tight preflop and either look for great cards or a great situation, you can occasionally come up with a large bet and have it work a lot. You are looking for people that raise with too many hands, or raise from late position too often and you are going to 3bet them light and continue on the flop if they just call, fold if they 4bet. You can flat call their bets on the flop with intention of stealing the turn as well.
You also might look for a situation where there is loose raiser to raise, and another player calls. Or you can raise several times in a row and if on either the 4th or 5th time they com over the top, 4bet. Anything else you want to avoid because opponents should respect your range of hands the first few times. Only after you bet several times do they become likely to make a move on you.
Of course, the good news is, even against aces you have 20% equity with a hand as bad as 47s. So in this regard you will always have "outs" just like on the flop with a bottom pair vs an overpair. However, a hand as strong as KK is still a huge underdog to aces and so you aren't going to have much hope vs any overpair regardless of your hand. It's the 56s vs AK that has a 40% chance to win though and actually a 22.5% chance vs AA instead of the 18.05% chance KK has vs aces. So combined with your image and the inability to reraise someone who shoves in, you can really exploit opponents with the all in provided it isn't a large overbet with a wide variety of hands if they will fold often enough. This same calculation that you use on semibluffs can apply.
If you are 30% to win when called, and it works 70% of the time, you can push up to 6.5 times the pot. You would need to throw away the worst half of hands but it's certainly possible to do this with a wide range with the right image and the right opponent to profit.
If you are 25% to win and and it works 65% of the time, you can still push up to 4.2 times the pot
So at 22 big blinds or less you can occasionally pull out the push with any two vs a raiser who is loose and probably do so successfully if you have played extremely tight. You can probably push a raise and a caller with 30 big blinds and less on a bluff. You can probably 4 bet an aggressive restealer say 60 big blinds and this is based upon the 4.2 times the pot. Probably you can do so with deeper stacks than that, but I wouldn't suggest it very often... maybe to show a bluff and tilt some players after playing extremely tight and switching gears on them. This strategy has lots of dangers if you are wrong about your assumptions though.
Alternatively, you can use an app on your phone called ShortStacking to determine every single individual hand that is profitable to push against a specific opponent.
Preflop General Strategy:
We want to start out preflop with a hand that has a 50% chance of being best or better.
All of the cards in the given range will have a 50% chance of having best ranked hand or better:
8 players to act 8.3%
7 players to act 9.43%
6 players to act 10.91%
5 players to act 12.95%
4 players to act 15.91%
3 players to act 20.63%
2 players to act 29.29%
1 players to act 50%
This assumes ranking is linear which it isn't but it is approximately correct. For example, while AK may be better than AT, is it better than 44 or T9s always? It depends what hand you are against. 44 is a favorite against AK, T9s is a favorite against 44, and AK is a favorite against T9s. T9s does well vs many callers or with deep stacks. Some hands will win a small pot and are at risk of losing a big one, where as others lose small pots but have greater potential to win a big one.
It depends on who you are playing against and what hands opponents play so to put AJ in the range of hands is tricky, especially since we want our preflop strategy to mesh with our postflop strategy.
You can loosen up if your skill over the game is greater but you have to keep in mind the general principals of moving all in on bluffs to break even and having a strong enough hand to move all in with the goods where everything you get is extra. I would really fight for equity when you are in position because you should have the information to be able to get it. That means playing more hands in position but maybe less out of position.
Preflop Hand Ranges: If you play pretty tight, your opponent has to respect your hand range a lot more which makes pushing on bluffs more successful. It also gives you a higher percentage of your preflop hands that you get to push all in, and makes your 3 and 4 bets light that you do based upon situation and not cards, much more successful. However, as long as your pushes are break even you can play with more hands if you like, it just will give yourself a more difficult challenge.
I'm going to outline the percentage of hands that you would play with the given number of opponents to have a 50% chance of being best.
The way to determine this is simply one minus a hand range to the power of N number of opponents or (1-X)^N=% where X is a hand range you'd play, N is number of opponents and % is the probability the hand is best as we did above.
In other words, this determines the odds that every player who only played your range of hands would fold. Whether or not our opponents actually do fold is irrelevant to the strategy. We set this to 50% because we want a 50% chance of having the best hand or better. This allows us to come in representing a stronger range of cards and if our opponent doesn't respect it, we can get paid off with big hands more often. If our opponent does, we can pull off bluffs more often.
Since the strategy is highly involved in flop overbets, we want to open up with suited connectors often. So even a tight range of 7.415% of hands might look approximately like:
77+ AQ+ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s. I like low suited connectors better because they are less likely to hit opponent's range, makes it more easily to represent flopping big hands on low flops. We will be unlikely to run into troubles with 78s on T96 board since opponent is less likely to have two pair that can draw to a full house or a set and less likely to have outs to a better straight such as KQ or QJ. Two pair combinations can be trouble with higher cards. Imagine having JT on a QJT board and having opponent with AK, QJ, or even KQ has so many outs they are actually probably a slight favorite.AQ is in much better shape.
We either have a big pair, overcards or a big draw. AQ we could run into troubles if we are 3bet as opponent could have AK. Since we risk losing a big pot and only will win a small one if we pair our ace, we could be cautious with that hand and instead opt to play 4 suited hands like T9s,JTs,QJs,KQs in it's place.
If we move in with AK on a semibluff on a 345 board, our opponent is going to be in a lot more trouble if hands like 45,56,67 are in our range. While having the threat of a set on any hand by playing any pair is good, I'd rather avoid running into set over set if I can help it.
8 players left might look like:
55+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs
OR
88+ AJ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s
It's up to you how to structure your hands. From now on I'm just going to tell you one possible way that is very heavy on suited connectors and pairs and very light on the AJ type of hands to avoid tricky situations where we can be outkicked.
9 players left: 77+ AK T9s JTs QJs KQs 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s
8 players left: 55+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs
7 players left: 22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs
6 players left: 22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s
5 players left:
22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs
4 players left:
22+ AK 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s
Cutoff:
22+ AQ+ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s A2s A3s A4s A5s 76o 65o
Button:
22+ AJ+ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s A2s A3s A4s A5s 98o 87o 76o 65o A6s A7s T9o Jto Qjo Kqo
Blind vs blind:
22+ A9+ 98s 78s 67s 56s 45s T9s JTs QJs KQs AQs T8s 97s 86s 75s 64s J9s KJs QTs Ajs Ats A9s 34s T7s 96s 85s 74s 63s J8s KTs Q9s A2s A3s A4s A5s 98o 87o 76o 65o A6s A7s T9o Jto Qjo Kqo T6s J7s Q8s K9s 32s 53s 54o T8o 97o 86o 75o 64o Kjo Qto J9o Q9o Kto J8o T7o A4o A6s A7s
Be aware that after awhile opponents may have a good feel that you tend to undervalue broadway cards and play low cards. So you can try to represent having lower cards when you don't. You can act as if you have draws that you don't by floating flop, by semi-bluffing, by doing interesting things. Opponents can do that on high card flops. So after awhile you should probably should do the opposite and play more high cards. You should at some point switch to suited ace rag and suited broadway cards in favor of suited connectors so you connect with high card flops more and also so opponents can't just draw to higher flushes and straights. It's unlikely that opponent even if he had a good idea you were semibluffing all in would correctly adapt by calling off his stack with a draw himself and begin playing ace rag suited to raises, but just in case you're concerned about it that's how you would adapt. You also would represent drawing hands with more top pair hands if opponent did start calling off with draws.
I personally would probably play as wide as blind vs blind on the button. I probably would add in some hands that I did not include but there's small margin of error if you play the AJ types too aggressively. If you raise 3x the blind, and opponent raises 3 times your bet, you also have to be able to 4 bet often enough against active 3betters to at least move in 1/4, and preferably closer to 1/3 times to prevent opponent from being able to exploit you by raising with any two. It's important to make sure that our range doesn't overplay low suited hands so badly that we can't 4 bet without completely bluffing (which isn't terrible if you think you will only get called by a better pair anyways).
I will use 1/3.5 of raise hands to generate 4 bet ranges from initial raising position:
9 players: JJ+,AKs
8 players: JJ+,AKs (maybe if both tens are matching color you also push)
7 players: TT+,AKs
6 players: JJ+,AK (and two red tens)
5 players: TT+,AK,AQs
4 players: 99+,AK,AQs bluff:T9s (you could put AJs or 88 if you like instead)
3 players: 88+,AQ+ bluff:T9s (you could put AJs or 77 if you like instead)
2 players left:55+,AJ+ I would possibly remove some of the lower pairs and AJ and replace them with bluffs but it doesn't matter too much.
If you are going to call occasionally you can 4bet less often but you have to have enough postflop skill to make up for the times you fold or for coming in with an inferior preflop hand more often..
The 4 bet shove bluff is done for image purposes. I would show the bluff. It makes you look like you don't allow people to reraise you and you may get away with being "exploitable" to 3bets by folding more when facing 3bets and getting action when you have AA and KK as a result. You can also call with a mixture of strong and medium hands and only 4bet with the strongest and weakest. You will have to mix up your AA with shoves and calls possibly to disguise your strengths and weaknesses though.
From the same perspective when facing a raise, you might assess opponent's range and either 3bet with hands that represent the top half of opponent's range, or 75% chance of being best, OR a mixture of strongest hands and your suited connector hands.
Choosing A Cash Game Buy In Size TO Use The Supersystem Style
Now for buying in, you want to make sure you size your bets and buy in stack such that your all in shoves matches your strategy and chipstack.
So let's say you plan to push with between 3.75 to 4.25 times your stack. If you are putting in 4 big blinds and then you have small and big blind plus opponent calling, that is 9.5. Shoving on flop requires between 35.625 blinds to 40.375 blinds. We can add 4 big blinds to that or buy in between 37.625 to 44.375 big blinds. If we want to shove with deeper stacks that's fine but we must identify looser preflop opponents so they are less likely to have a pocket pair or hit a typical flop, or tighter on the flop such that they aren't calling with sets and overpairs and top pair any kicker. Or we must be really good at determining which flops vs our opponents range we can push with and which we can't.
That requires incredible skill if you are doing it with deeper stacks and reading the flops. It is far easier to standardize the style in all situations.
The alternative is either putting in more preflop OR playing with a straddle OR 3betting ligh to create the right proportion of stacks.
Doyle Brunson talked about betting on every flop basically and only if he was 3bet would he shove.
So what if we just raised 3 big blinds, getting a pot of 7.5 and bet 4 big blinds on the flop, and only shoved if we were reraised to say 12 big blinds? There would at that moment be 23.5 in the pot and 3.75 to 4.25 times the pot would be 88.125 to 99.875 big blinds REMAINING after we already put in 3 preflop and 4 on the flop.
So we could buy in with 95 to 107 big blinds no problem, especially if our initial bet is closer to the pot size bet that Doyle makes. 100 buy in is pretty normal so that's fine.
Someone suggested Doyle played with 200 big blinds back in the day. BUT there may also have been very loose action due to players straddling (the under the gun player puts in twice the big blind). Even if it was just the blinds and straddle in the pot...
The straddle could make a normal raise 6 big blinds. 6+6+2.5 big blinds due to straddle means 14.5 big blinds. Open shoving could take place if you bought in for 60-68 big blinds.
3bet flop shoving on semibluff could take place if opponent bets 8 at 90-100 big blinds.
4bet shoving (which Doyle suggested he did) could take place if you bet say 8 into 14.5 flop, opponent bets 25 and you shove. You could buy in from 192-215 big blinds or less.
So it appears that even now with computers to simulate equity and computations being more widely available we can validate Doyle's supersystem as likely right on the money and still very relevent. Of course Doyle didn't ALWAYS push on every flop with every semibluff as well as with every set, but certainly you can see how it would work.
Preflop 3 Betting TO Set Up Larger Pots
One common modern day strategy is to 3bet much more often and 4bet more often. As such, you can create larger flop pots by calling 3bets or 3betting yourself with a wider range of hands. So what about 3 beting preflop? How does that change decisions on the flop? Opponent bets 3 big blinds, you make it 9 big blinds and there is 19.5 in the pot. With open shove on flop you need to buy in for 82-92 big blinds to break even on shoves. With a 3bet shove or check raise shove on flop to a bet of say 10 you could have 120-135 big blinds. With a 4bet flop shove where you first put in 10 big blinds and get raised or check raised to 30 you can be buying in up to 242-272 big blinds. One strategy may be to 3bet from your big blind to defend with a hand like 87s and then if called you still can check raise all in on the flop if you OR your opponent have less than 140 big blinds. Or call a 3bet on someone defending their blind and shoving over their continuation bet.
If you buy in for LESS than the amounts, that's fine, it just means your bluffs are profitable rather than break even OR that you can semibluff with more hands, or do them against opponents who will have a stronger hand more often.
Breaking even on your bluffs according to game theory is what you should do to maximize value when you have a winning hand since it forces opponent to widen range to play optimally against you, which causes you to make more money on your real hands. If opponent tightens up instead you will be able to bluff more profitably. However, if you are playing exploitatively, there's nothing wrong with making money on your bluffs.
Nevertheless, if you buy in for less, you may attempt semibluffs like this with a wider range of hands rather than just your semibluffs on suited connectors. You may also play AK that way for example. Or you can just as demonstrated open shove or 3bet shove instead of it needing to be a 4bet shove provided the pot is larger. Just be aware that if you are betting on the flop and getting 3bet it probably represents a much stronger range of hands than normal, and your opponent is probably more likely to have a hand that can call which means you probable should shove with less hands and more strength or more outs. On the other hand, your opponent also sees you represent strength so he may not be calling with top pair weak kicker for all his stack and perhaps not even top pair top kicker which would allow you to possibly shove with more hands. It really depends which makes playing this system robotically all too difficult.
Nevertheless, Buying in for 40 big blinds and open shoving your draws after raising 4 big blinds for example, or perhaps buying in for more at looser tables where you raise larger to isolate and have more dead money in the pot can set up profitable shoves and even more profitable check raise or 3 bet shoves assuming opponent plays similarly against your shorter stacks.
Alternatively, if you really want a huge edge, you can set up lots of different situations on lots of different flops and get a much better feel for ranges, probability opponent calls, and you can seek to take the supersystem to a whole new level with some real nutball poker by adapting specifically to the flop and opponent. THIS cannot be strictly done intuitively without playing thousands of hands. That's a recipe for disaster. The much better alternative is to do lots of work using propoker tools or a tool that helps calculate equity and setting up lots of GENERAL flop conditions and opponents. With that knowledge of baseline situations you can shove against, you can loosen or tighten up as the situation warrants it.
I also believe the fast strategy works much better if you switch things up and can play other styles for awhile. What do good players think if you're playing like Daniel Negreanu one moment with small pots and decisions on the flop turn and river to suddenly playing big pots? The first few times they'll think you have a real hand. The unsophisticated players may just see you in a lot of pots and assume you have nothing. So you can play big pots and get paid off against the unsophisticated players regardless of how often you've played that way, and use that way to pull out large semibluffs out of left field against the sophisticated players. Or what if you play very few hands and try to flop sets and overpair or AK on K or A high flop before you even continue for 30 hands and then start playing slightly more hands but acting as if you have a set? The opponents have to give you credit.
The real supersystem by Doyle suggested he might even be willing to get it all in with bottom pair on the board at times as well but that he wouldn't always get his money in on a flushdraw and would also play opponents and situations cautiously if they warranted it. That's probably going to only give him 5 outs but it works real well against the players who will call you with ace king in that spot as well. I think there are other ways to profit from 3rd pair and middle pair but if you were to add this in, certainly you'd have to watch out for the tight preflop opponents a bit more or play with shallower stacks unless you actually can confirm you will take enough small pots from that style of pushing in with any pair as well on the flop. Since I'm personally not always going to be moving all in and because I actually want to see a showdown with my top pair and sometimes middle pair hands, and because I want my all ins to be a bit more effective, I might small ball some of the draws as well, and I might on rare occasion push with any pair or AK. A lot of it is adjusted based upon opponent's... which takes some time to figure out.
Since we will be playing suited connectors a lot we will flop a piece of it nearly 70% of the time (edit:this number is too high). If we are going to continuation be 90% of the time that means we probably should also continuation bet on low flops that didn't hit anyone and on flops where we have backdoor draws to both straights and flushes and flops where we have an overcard to the board or a pocket pair. I think this will fall short of 90% but Doyle was only approximating and did say sometimes he can pick on certain opponents without an out but it's best to bet with an out (or multiple outs as it's known now). The "outs" also should actually be "good". Don't draw to a flush if there is a pair on board, don't draw to straight if there are 3 cards to a flush. You probably just want a cheap showdown and if you hit play a small pot or else take a small stab at the pot and give it up after that.
The Overall Value of The Strategy Trumps The Value of An Individual Decision
It's also important to note that Doyle was looking at FUTURE value of hands. He wanted to push all in so he can remain the aggressor in the other hands. If someone takes away his ability to be aggressive it forces him to tighten up or play in a different way which may not be as profitable.I did not calculate the additional equity gained from getting players to fold as a result of this play. What I did do however was reduce your semibluffs to break even and that means on that specific hand it is an inferior decision to checking down. However, In terms of game theory, you generally should be breaking even on bluffs so that you get the most action possible when you have the best hand so that is okay. Add in that PLUS the increased probability opponents will fold marginal hands and it may be worth playing even more hands with semibluffs to the point where you might even loose a little bit.
Doyle didn't care if someone could have AA or better when he plays back at Doyle on the flop. He was willing to lose money by moving in on a draw with the idea that the opponents would not even begin to think they can make that play with JToff with no pair and no draw. So he'll take a loss on this hand to prevent opponents from making a move on the next. There may not have players now adays online that think like that. Many may be playing what they think is "equilibrium poker" or close to it so they may not even care. Or they may not be paying attention. However, enough are or you to consider it, particularly if you know the player and are playing live.
Doyle was very big on adapting to your opponent and situations and slowing down and changing gears to fast again. That means you wouldn't try to bluff or semibluff most players if you didn't have to if they were willing to call you a lot. Against the calling station, you just show down a good hand and go back to fundamentals and forget most of the "supersystem" hyper aggressive style of play.
Against bad opponents you exploit, against good opponents you mix it up and create "balance" or you anticipate him to predict you to be playing out of balance and you play out of balance in the opposite way. So if you are bluffing one player you value bet another. What looks to be a bluff to a player who is paying attention to you will just be another bet to a bad player. So if you show down a bluff, switch it up vs the observing player.
In other spots Doyle will talk about betting 7,000 when someone has 20,000 left. If the pot is 7,000 and Doyle does this on a pure bluff, he's not actually calling when the guy 3bets all in. But if he is, he has a much better hand or a great draw So the player is forced to fold. If he calls he perceives that Doyle will bet it all on the next card. Well, he might but he doesn't have to just because he's established that image. so that allows him to risk less proportionally to what he'll get when he actually has a hand.
After reading Super System again, I realize that Doyle doesn't make the half pot bets so this might make him able to play at much deeper stacks when he 4bet shoves, and it might give him the ability to push all in on the turneither with a monster hand or with a semibluff, or instead just put opponent to the test with another pot sized bet. He never bought in for less than 200 big blinds at the $300/$500 stakes he says so stacks were much deeper then but he didn't do any of this "small ball" of betting 1/3rd or 1/2. He says a "reasonable bet" is a bet almost equal to the pot. So it sounds like he wouldn't even be betting as "small" as 5/9ths or 7/10ths of the pot.
That makes things very interesting as you will be finding it very difficult to show down a middle strength hand like a medium pair.
Phil Helmuth would actually be known for making those really small almost limit holdem like bets as "feeler bets" where it is far more likely for opponent to raise him if he had anything decent. If the player didn't, he'd be able to control the bet size and show down intermediate hands and draws. However, he'd also be able to sense when opponent is weak and throw in the bluffs on the TURN as a result of his read on the flop. Just calling screams "middle pair or draw" if he is playing most basic players. Particularly depending on the flop. Doyle would never let things get that far and instead would win a much higher percentage of the pots due to his willingness to force the action with all ins. How can you call on the flop if the next bet is going to put you all in if you don't have a big hand or a big draw? Of course, Doyle is intentionally establishing this image as a loose player who will bet it all with bottom pair. As a maniac. But in reality he is a little more calculated and attentive to those trying to trap him and he is very well aware of who the tight players are. He gets called by these guys and they won't get paid off.
Consider that if someone double barrel bluffs first with 1/3rd of the pot then with 2/3rds of the pot he'll by the completion of the turn have put in nearly twice the initial pot to begin with. So he is not really saving chips on his bluffs as much as he may think.
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