In the post, 4 poker fundamental strategies, I gave a few preflop strategies. We are going to put one of the strategies in focus and talk about how we will use the information to construct a postflop baseline.
There are 117,600 possible flops, so we must "generalize". What we want to do is look at cards 2 ,3,4,5 as if they are one single card, cards 6,7,8,9 as if they are one card, T,J,Q,K as one and ace as one. We then can get down to 20 unpaired flops, plus 16 paired flops, plus 4 flops of 3 of a kind for a total of 40 unique situations.
Now as we broke up preflop raising strategies into 8 possible raising range per strategy, we can get down to 320 situations we need to solve. Rather than solve all 8 raising strategies, we can solve about half of them and get a close enough idea. This still is 160 possible situations to solve per strategy. PLUS evaluating flush draw flops. How in the world do I expect to do all of this? By getting to work immediately. What use will this even have? By having all 40 strategies laid out on a spreadsheet, and the corresponding strategies given a set of hand ranges of that particular strategy and how you handle the flop, you will have an incredibly solid framework for correct poker decisions, shaving off hundreds of hours of practice, plus recency bias and results oriented biases among other biases, and developing a very good idea backed by math of what decisions to make and how to analyze them.
So the strategy in focus for the time being is this raising strategy. The most common spot will be in a pot that we raise the standard 3x big blind. It really won't matter as long as we aren't figuring all in strategies or complex 3bet on the flop strategies.
UTG: 77+,A7s+,A5s,AT+,K9s+,QTs,JTs,KQ
UTG+1: 66+,A7s+,A5s,A4s, AT+,K9s+,QTs,JTs,KJ+,Q9s,J9s,T9s
UTG+2: 55+,A3s+, AT+,K9s+,QTs,JTs,KJ+,Q9s,J9s,T9s,QJ
lojack: 55+,A2s+, AT+,K7s+,QTs,JTs,KT+,Q9s,J9s,T8s+,98s,QJ
hijack: 44+,A2s+,A9+,K4s+,Q7s+,J8s+,KT+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,QT+,JT,
cutoff: 33+,A2s+,A8+,K3s+,Q6s+,J7s+,K9+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,Q9+,J9+,T9,
Button: 22+,A2s+,A7+,K2s+,Q3s+,J4s+,K7+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,74s+,63s+,53s+,Q8+,J8+,T6+,97+,85+,75+,
SB/BB: All cards
We will start with UTG: 77+,A7s+,A5s,AT+,K9s+,QTs,JTs,KQ.
Now we want to simplify these hands as well to be notated according to the simplification system we set up. But we also want to know the PERCENTAGE of all of our starting hands that contain such a combination.
The notation is L=low,M=mid,F=facecard,A=ace and the various 2 card combinations.
Taking away the significance of order (LM is the same as ML), you have 15 combinations.
Then you have 4 additional hands:LP=low pair, MP=midpair, FP=facecard pair, AP=Pair of aces for a total of 19.
In this case, we have 3 mid pairs, 4 facecard pairs, 1 pair of aces, and a slew of other 2 card combinations. We must be aware of the probability that we have a particular specific hand so when a particular flop comes , we can evaluate the approximate probability of our RANGE of hands pairing.
Although we only play 12.67% of hands OF the hands we play, we get the following breakdown GIVEN we are in the hand with a single raise:
LA 2.38%
MF 2.38%
PA 3.57%
MA 7.14%
PM 10.71%
PF 14.29%
FF 21.43%
FA 38.10%
total=100%
Now if for example we analyze a flop with 3 low cards we know 2.38% of hands have at least one low card in them. We also can look at the best 50% of hands on a LLL flop.
PA,LA(made straight OR pair with straight draw and overcard),PF,PM. That gives us over 30% of our cards. That's actually ABOUT right when facing a TWICE the pot sized bet since opponent will get 1 to 2 on his bets, and we have to call about 1/3rd of the time to keep him honest. The best hands after that are then ace and a face card. If we used all of them it would give us 69% of the flops which is too much (but about right for a half pot sized bet). If we just use AK,AQ(including suited) we have 50% of the flops. From a game theory perspective without considering "outs" and potential shove equilibriums on future streets, we now can specifically say that given a pot sized bet on 3 low card flops with this starting hand range, we should call with: 77+,AQ+,A5s. Note that A7s on a 345,346,456,563,346 flop will also be worth calling or semibluffing occasionally, but most likely not on the other flops.
If we are first to act we want to BET half the time and check half the time. However, we still need to disguise our hands.50% of the hands we bet with SHOULD be in this range, and 50% of the hands we check with should be in this range. We also will bluff 50% of the time with hands NOT in this range, and check 50% with hands we will likely fold. IF we are faced with a bet after checking, we will raise with HALF of the hands we want to keep, and call with about half. You want to mix in raises with the weak end and strong end of the range along with the calls so as to not be predictable. If you need a way to randomize it if the time ends in an odd number, choose to check raise, if it's an even number choose to check call. On the turn you might use the second hand to randomize.
Now you have LLL flop which is one of 40 situations figured out for one of 8 possible opening hand ranges. You also should note a notable flaw in this plan is that given a low flop only 30% of the time you have a pair. Given a HIGH card flop there is an informational advantage that opponents have as they know you are much more likely to have paired. For now we won't worry about this, BUT the way you can eliminate giving this edge away is randomly playing some low suited connectors every few rotations and folding some of your other marginal hands a bit more. But this actually gives up a hand strength edge to reduce the informational edge the opponent has over you. Pick your poison.
Now you want to repeat this for this particular hand range for all 40 situations. Then pick the UTG+2 (skip UTG+1) and repeat, then pick UTG+3(lowjack) and repeat, then pick the cutoff and repeat, then look at the situation using all cards and repeat.
Hey, winning poker is not easy, and hard work pays off. One way to ensure your poker success is to manage your bankroll well and outwork everyone to ensure you maintain your sustainable and substantial edge at least for your given stakes.
You also may be surprised what having this information as a reference can do for you sometimes. You can put opponent on a range, check your spreadsheet table and decide his range and determine what you need to have to call him approximately.
Do NOT leave decisions to emotion, but ground them in mathematics.
Hey, I could continue this until I completed the entire range of 40 potential flops, but you don't expect me to do all the work for you do you?
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