Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Spreadsheet Of Conditional Odds Introduction

I continue in the process to find the formula of poker. We have laid the entire formula out, as
Ca=C+(p*B)+((1-p)*E). We then defined many of the variables which are very conditional based upon responses on path to get the ultimate formula.

Now we actually need some sort of way of approximating an "equilibrium" style of sorts while also providing the ability to evaluate hands based upon how opponents have responded before us. This has never truly been done before in multi-way pots. Approximated equilibrium of the past have failed to take advantage of information provided when opponent's ahead of you fold a particular estimated hand range. This will change the odds of you running into an ace, but also strengthen hands like AK as more people fold and the liklihood increases of:
1)The opponents left to act having a weaker ace

2)The opponent you face having lower cards which are more likely to have been folded
3)An Ace or King being more likely to come on the flop as it is more likely than not that they were not folded.
4)A lower likelihood of opponent hitting a set or pair with lower cards.
5)A lower likelihood of opponent pairing or making a draw with unpaired cards than usual and thus an increased chance that ace high holds up if opponent doesn't have a pocket pair already.

6)A better semibluff opportunity with greater chance of cards that can help make a straight as well as greater chances of pairing the ace or king than from early position or with simply "random" folds.

In fact, you may actually elect to slow play AK in very late position after many fold, to keep an ace with a bad kicker in, to under represent your hand and potential semibluff opportunities... OR you may choose to try to build up a larger pot than usual and hope to put in a semibluff into a larger pot knowing your odds are better that it works with all the previous folds than in normal spots. Also, for the same reasons, you may actually elect to fold small and even medium pocket pair if the steal attempt fails and opponent is only likely to do that with overcards to your pair. You also may be MORE likely to draw and call or limp behind after multiway action because higher cards is more likely which means a lower flop is coming.

We want to incorporate this more advanced information of at least some approximation of what a fold represents and how the "variable change" effects our chances of winning. We also want to leave the formula open to be able to deviate from it given more known information as it develops.

By approximating the equilibrium, we will then be able to actually given any number of potential conditions, plug all the data into the formula as needed for now.

There is a high degree of difficulty of estimating both the probability that all opponents ahead of you fold, and how previous opponents folding changes the effective probability they have a hand, and hand strength due to variable change and conditional probabilities.

I gotta be honest, I am going to probably struggle with this formula and maybe even work backwards a bit at times as I will possibly run into dead ends.

So you will have to bear with me...

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