Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Some Notes on Flop Texture

Super bluffing:to play a hand correctly, one must be very aware of the flops ad the likelihood anyone else has hit and properly evaluate the hand strength.

Recognize how good the hand is and how likely it is to have alternatives.
On KQT board there is AJ,J9,KK,QQ,TT,KQ,KT,QT,KJ,QJ,TJ,AK,AQ,AT,K9,Q9,T9,99, then any pocket pair plus any J and any 9 and any ace. All of these hands are very likely potential holdings. On a K23 board there is only KK,22,33,K2,K3,23,AK,any pocket pair,A2,A3,KX,45, and only a few are likely holdings. As such, a hand like a single pair or even ace high is actually much stronger... Even QJ is surprisingly high on hand strength. Unless someone has a K, a bluff can be very profitable. If you size bluffs according to how likely opponent is to hit given his range it will be much better.
Put a KK2 board and only KK,22,K2,Kx and a pocket pair are relevant. Unlike AX, many of the KX hands aren't in the players hand range. As such ace high is often the best hand at this stage. Knowing this, you can get tricky and basically slow play a bluff to extract more chips before you make a larger bluff. At lower level you can just bet half the pot and give up if you are faced with resistance.

Book examples.

In the book "Kill Everyone" the benefit with various flops for shoving 4 times the pot are given. Assuming a particular raising range by the initial raiser and the range of any two cards by the player who calls and shoves the flop, how loose must you call? This info is provided in the book with 3 example flops giving creditability to a selectively hyper aggressive strategy after the flop. If shoving all in with any two for 4 times the pot calls for such a loose calling range, just imagine if you start with a tighter range of hands and are even a tad selective about your spots to have big draws how opponent will have to call. And what if instead you are the initial raiser who had the opportunity to steal the blinds first and also attempt to pick up pots with bets on the flop first and can recognize how the turn changes things. This provides the possibility for some real aggressive pushing and the opportunity to avoid pre flop all in coin flips.

The super bluffer style:
The superbluffer will rarely move in without "outs" But he will know when to take small stabs at pots and when to just back off. He certainly will open up his range significantly on some flops in some spots to include hands without "outs"... he will also shove with his monsters in many spots as well. The superbluffer will at times play "small ball" and then only push on river near an equilibrium solution or not at all. At times this player will let opponent do the bluffing and snap off calls. But often they will flat call or minraise certain flops with potential to bluff small on the turn or with a push all in if the right turn card comes. The superbluffer must back down if faced with another bet or the wrong card, but may just check the turn if the back door draw is there at times so he can induce another bet and shove if he hits.  The key is knowing the type of board and the player.


Various Flops:
AA2-AA5, these flops are basically the same with only a minor difference being the straight draw possibilities. However, hands like 23,24,25,34,43 aren't in very many players holdings. Perhaps 45s may be. In other words, the player either hit the ace or not. Since there are only 2 aces in the deck the odds are slim, however you can be pretty confident that if an ace was dealt, it was played. As such these flops are different than most paired flops. But still very similar. Do not try to risk it all on a draw semibluff because you could very  well be drawing dead, or facing redraw outs from opponent. Either bluff small with nothing or not at all. If you have an ace you might slow play it for a street if opponent is likely to bluff. An okay play is the minraise on the flop with a fold to any resistance beyond that, followed by a very small (40% of pot) bluff on the turn if they check to you and otherwise giving up the pot.
Treat AA6-AA9 about the same.
AAT-AAK these flops are much more likely to hit someone than any other paired flop. You have straight draws and 2 pair with full house possibilities as well as anyone with an ace. Even though paired boards may be good to bluff these are not. If you have an ace rarely should you slow play unless you have a boat. The only reason to check is to control pot size and induce a bluff but that should only be done on one street and very rarely.NEVER try to bluff these flops.
KKx,QQx,JJx. These should be looked at the same. Some people may play J9 or Q9 but not K9 but they will play K2s but not Q2S or J2s. So it is about as likely to hit them. Provided there are no straight draw opportunities or pair with back door straight possibilities, this is one of the ideal flops to bluff at. Given a hand AK the chances of hitting 3 of a kind, fullhouse or quads are about 1.45%. However, given this flop and opponent's hand range, the odds go up since you know they are starting in the hand with a face card more often than not... As such you can deduce that KKx is more likely than 772 to have hit them. Estimate a bit more than 2% chance. Then leave a little margin of error for guys who may have overpaired or 2pair with inability to fold or even crazy call with ace high. You thus may want to be willing to commit up to 35 times what you risked pre flop towards an aggressive bluff.  1/35=2.8%. You can see how money this is, but be aware, other savvy poker players will be doing the same. Know your opponent and make that big last all in on a regular if you think they will fire. Out of position:
check-call followed by check raise push, against opponents that will double barrel continuation bet, or just a check raise push.
In position a flat call or minraise followed by reraise push. Or a reraise push, or just a medium (half pot) bet followed by a push.

KK,QQ,JJ+ face card.
The face cards get much more dangerous. Particularly if that face card is an ace. Even a 9 comes into play with straight draws but a lower connected card is the danger. KKQ,JJT,QQJ as these make the mode straight possibilities and open enders players with ace high and a broadway straight draw will correctly be bolder at trying to snap off bluffs since if they are wrong they may have outs. If they have AK on QQK flop they have full house redraw PLUS back door straight draws plus are less likely to give up the pot. These flops are great semi bluffing flops if you pick up a draw as well but only against the right opponent with right stack size.

22-99x no face card
These boards are good to take small bluffs at but only shove against hyper aggressive players that continuation bet all the time and get into large pots or in more desperate situations.

22-99 plus face card
These boards you should treated in virtually the same way as a face card plus two low cards. EXCEPT it is slightly worse since you will be virtually drawing dead enough of the time. Even though opponent knows that, they are less likely to give you credit, so be more selective.

Q27,J27,K27,Q26,etc. in this case, this is a "dry flop" meaning not many if any drawing possibilities, and only one real face card that can help. Excellent bluffing opportunity, but I want to have at least an over card, ideally two because opponent could have AJ on 27J and my A T is no good. I actually like slow playing top pair here, and playing my bluffs similarly in that I will let another card peal off and maybe just flat call a bet. Types of hands that should set up potential bluffs are those with lots of outs to a draw, such as a 56 with a 4 or 7 on board a 3 and/or 8 works too but not as well. This way if the draw comes you can make a very aggressive semibluff all in if need be
the introduction of a 9 and/or two connected cards such as J78,Q78 make the flop a bit more interesting. OR if stacks are deep and opponent is likely to pay you off when you hit, you can occasionally take a free card or cheap card and just call the turn and then go for big over push when you hit to not be predictable. I might also push if I pick up a pair in that sits having 5 outs on the turn to two pair or trips. Only 10% chance of hitting my hand, but better than nothing, AND I also will be pushing with top pair, sets, two pair,etc taking that exact same line. Typically however, you will brick out on back door draw and instead if a scare card doesn't come, you can just proceed with a small stab at the pot as if you were slow playing top pair or better. Only when you pick up that back door draw are you occasionally willing to push. Putting in a minraise should be a rare, but powerful technique to represent an even bigger monster.

Qx9,Jx9,Kx9,J98,Q97,K98, the introduction of a 9 and/or two cards such as J78,Q78 make the flop a bit more interesting. Now there are straight possibilities or straight draw possibilities. With some kind of hand if you can you may want to shut out straight draws. I go to showdown a bit more often by checking the dangerous flops in position or a small bet, or leading small to keep pot small and check at least on one of the 3 streets. The risk of letting him draw out can sometimes be made up for by disguising your hand as a draw yourself and getting opponent to bluff. Since I play big hands this way, I play my draws this way most of the time. You can't play draws strong and made hands weak or vice-versa without someone picking up on it. But you could go with a 60/40 split. Of the two, I would rather play draws strong than pairs strong and pairs weak more than draws and only a set or two pair or made straight equally as strong.

Coordinated boards
456,567,789,QJT,etc
These boards are a nightmare. Even if you have a straight or straight draw you could be drawing dead. Even if you have a straight you could be outdrawn by a set or two pair or even 9T on a 789 board can hit a jack to spit or beat you or a QJ could hit a T for a higher straight, or you could be up against a nut straight. This board is the worst. Then there are the flush draws on top of it that compound the problem. You have to have a big piece of the flop and/or a chance to draw out to continue and even then I hate it.)
Even if you hit aces you might fold to this flop since you are either way behind to drawing dead, or barely ahead with opponent drawing live.
It is an okay semibluff in board but only against a really good opponent.
I hate these boards as you cannot really bluff, you cannot really stay with decent hands, and it's a nightmare if you have a made hand. Just consider these boards poor and keep the pot as small as you can.
Introducing a single gap doesn't help much as on a KQT board someone has JT or QJ or KJ or KQ or AK or KK or any two pair combination.

Two broadway, one low card
KTX,KJX,AKX,AJX,AQX,ATX,QTX,QJX,etc
These hands are NOT for bluffing... Ever. Even semibluffs are bad. Continuation bets are the only acceptable bluff but even then trying to get a small to mid pair to fold isn't worth risking extra chips. Plus when you hit top two pair or top pair top kicker, you will have broadway straight draws so keep pot small and fold the all ins. Let opponent make the mistake of bluffing this type of board.


Ace is much more likely to have hit someone than any other broadway card... Adjust past hand mentions with an ace instead accordingly.


Suitedness:
Having 2 suits of the same kind shouldn't change much about the flop other than semibluff opportunities and potentially present future bluffing opportunities to represent the flush. The overall odds of a flush hitting are small. As a big bluffer, and even a small bluffer (Think Daniel Negreanu) suitedness is awesome. You can bluff big on a semibluff, you can represent a suit you don't have, pick up a back door draw and bluff the draw and value bet if you hit. You can pick up a straight or straight draw and then bluff big while representing hitting the flush with potential outs to a straight and/or flush. You can represent flushes you don't have, you can make small bet into 3 suits of the same kind on flop as if you either have it made or the draw. But don't give your opponents credit for a flush too often unless their playing style strikes you as honest. With 3 suited you can give him credit for a draw though. They are still a concern, but shouldn't change as much as most people might think.


Turn play
The turn is the spot where there is added flavor. You may pick up a double gutshot draw or open ended draw, a straight flush draw or either a straight or a flush draw of some kind. You also will want to chase out that type of action. Yet sometimes not doing so is fishy enough that you actually can bet big as if you missed your draw and fool opponent. If you pair your draw such that you conceivably could have made a straight it is a great spot to represent it and shove with outs to it and outs to two pair or trips as well.
I.E. 46 on a K57 board and 4 or 6 turn.
But you don't always shove just to do it if chip stack sizes are too large in relationship to the pot.

Stack sizes
When it comes to making decisions, stack sizes are crucial. For example, if the pot has 100 and your stack size is 10,000 an all in bet would most likely rarely ever be very smart. You are risking far too much to get far too little. Theoretically your opponent could call with only the very best possible hand on the flop if is was your strategy and still make a ton of chips in the long run. We will discuss stack sizes later, but for now know that it is crucial towards a solid fundamental "all in" strategy.

Watch a pro
Phil Ivey and Hoyt Corkins are both good at the longball all in strategies. watch them and pay attention to the amount in the pot if possible and their stack sizes as well as their opponent's stack sizes.

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