If it folds to me one off or two off the button, I will often raise to get opponents in position to fold so I gain position. This especially works well if there are limpers and I raise a near minimum amount. But I will be a bit more selective about the hands I play at this point.
But lets say I pick up 45s and it folds to me on the button...
PERFECT:
| probability of flopping an 8+out draw | 21.390% |
| probability of flopping 2 pair or better | 5.582% |
| probability of flopping a pair | 26.940% |
| probability of gutshot draw | 14.370% |
| straight flush draw | 1.020% |
Now basically I have a REAL good chance of being able to stay in the hand and play a style where I do not have to give up equity in the hand. In other words, about 70% of the time I have a good enough hand where I feel I can impliment a strategy that OVERALL is better than break even.
I may have a particular move (out of position) such as a check raise and a shove on the turn, or a bet and then a check raise with gutshots that is incredibly unprofitable mixed in there. But it is infrequent enough (as I also can take free cards and play a smaller pot), combined with the fact that I could just as easily be pushing with 2 pair or better, a pair WITH outs or a more premium draw. PLUS my opponent may not be able to call. Additionally, I make sure I am VERY aware of stack sizes and amount in the pot to ensure that my overall strategy is profitable. It HAS to be profitable enough that 70% of the time to offset the 30% of the time that I miss the flop completely. Yet even then I feel I can gain a small amount of equity back by playing small pot poker and making some good small bets, and gain a TON from playing a nutball strategy when the situation calls for it
Additionally the odds against my opponent hitting anything is good. PLUS I am real good at recognizing what kind of flops are likely to hit my opponent. Add on to that the supreme power of position. In other words, I can take a free card if I miss and hit a monster because they checked. Or I can minraise or flat call in position on a back door draw or with complete air to potentially make a small bluff or big semibluff on the turn.... I say potentially because there are many times when I will just take the free card and represent one draw while I have another and make a play on the river, I may also just try to check the turn and fold the river or shove all in if I hit. I also in some cases will call with the intention of only bluffing if I improve. I have already represented strength. I will also play monster hands like this over half the time I have them on a similar flop by just calling with a set then when a potential draw hits I will shove. on a board with 2 suits I also would just call and then shove a flush. I will sometimes even play top pair like this to extract more chips. My game has "balance" even though it is still pretty far away from "equilibrium".
Why? People to combat my style would have to start making crazy calls or else avoiding pots all together. If they start avoiding pots, I change my style to be much more cautious since I usually can recognize what THEY are doing, yet THEY can't recognize what I am since I play every opponent differently.
BUT IF people start growing a pair, they would have to start to call with hands like ace high to prevent me from robbing them blind in some cases. And if they do I have pretty good outs at worst, and they are drawing dead in some cases. If they are not, they are drawing to 1 out as I will be shoving with a pair AND a draw there a decent percentage of the time.
Let me give you the example provided in the book "kill everyone" of why this strategy is so difficult to play against. Say you've raised it to 4 big blinds or 800 in 100/200 blinds.
Flop comes down a face card and two blanks... in this case an ace. As 7h 2d
SB is short stacked now with only 5400 left and he pushes all in to a 1800 sized pot. You have him covered but would be a large part of your stack.
What if opponent puts your raise range (correctly) on 22+,A2s,A5+,K9+, QT+,J9s, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s, 54s....
If your call standards are top pair with ten kicker or better, then you are allowing it to be profitable for SB to push with ANY TWO CARDS! He could push with Q3!
If you lowered your standards to A8 he could "tighten up" and only push with All pairs, all wheel draws, and any pocket pair.
Think that's something? Just wait!
If the flop is 7,5,2 rainbow what should you call with facing a 3x pot size bet?
How weak can you go?
If you called with 44, your opponent is still profitable by calling preflop and then pushing with ANY TWO (assuming he doesn't actually slow play his big hands)!
You would actually even have to call with 33,A3 and even AK to prevent opponent from pushing with any two. Beyond that, if opponent had even a SLIGHT ability to "tighten up" preflop, although there would be gains from the blind steals, once you got to the flop you would most likely have to call even with a hand like AJ. If he went even tighter preflop plus a few occasional check folds and the occasional check raise all in mixed in (which could give him more equity), then you might have to call him with ANY ace high. And what if your raising range preflop is even looser? There are a handful of players that would raise from the button with about any two if it's folded to them! Now you may have to call with king high!
HA! So how many poker players at your game is there that can play that loose to play against your style?
BUT! What if the flop is something like QQ4? This is fun! You would have to call with 77 or higher to prevent the "any two" push. If opponent tightened up just a bit preflop and then pushed with this flop every time, you may have to call with an even looser hand.
Now consider me, the nutball poker play as your opponent. I typically avoid these kind of out of position moves. Yet in position I build up a pot, BUT am still a bit selective about my preflop range. I might play connected hands, suited connectors and suited one gap hands (i.e. 79s), and suited aces and suited kings plus occasional combinations of 2 face cards, any pair. I might play over 25% of all hands, and occasionally that may include "any two" if I am in position and feel I can make up for it after the flop. There is always a CHANCE I have any two cards even if I on average might play 25% of hands in middle position. Tighter out of position usually, sometimes much looser out of position (but not always).
Now how do you handle my aggressive move? But hold on... I am not just blindly shoving the flop. I will sometimes shove the flop, sometimes the turn, sometimes the river and the range of hands I may do that with have a good mixture of bluffs, semibluffs, monsters and even thin value bets. AND about 60% of the time I may switch to a "small ball" approach and control the size of the pot.
My shove range absolutely is tighter than "any two" preflop, and I absolutely am not always shoving. Additionally I am focused on YOU, and your particular playing style.
How do you do it?
The perception is PROBABLY that I am like the typical random maniac and that you tighten up and wait for a hand. Meanwhile I rob you blind preflop and on the flop and then you finally get your hand and I may not even be in it. If I am, I may be able to get away from it if I notice the number of hands you play is small.
AND about 20-40% of the time I will just decide to SWITCH styles completely and go back to playing a strategy where I ONLY come in with a superior starting hand range than you. Then I make decisions based upon not only your hand range, but the percentage of the time that you call on the flop (actually the fold percentage is where my aggression comes from), the percentage of the time you call on the turn, and river. If you have a leak in your own game I will aggressively attack it in either case, BUT this time I am doing it with a superior hand. Even if you wait for a hand that beats me it will be too late. If you play too loose I will have a better hand anyways.
You see... of this "nutball" strategy, I also have a large handful of variations of it that respect the game theory and mathematics.
Another amazing thing about the "kill everyone" book is that on a draw you can actually call a nearly double the pot size bet on the TURN on a draw where you are only maybe 24% to win IF you in turn have an equilibrium all in strategy on the river. In other words, you will have over 10 times the amount in the pot on the turn, you are faced with a bet twice the pot, and as a result, you have the all in bet on the river that is twice the pot. You might bluff 16% of the time, bet your real hands 24% of the time, for a total betting 40% of all time and a ratio of 60% of your bets you have a real hand and 40% of the time you are bluffing. But put in the ability to size up opponent along with that respect for math, game theory, equilibrium and odds, and suddenly you may even be able to call with a much wider range with only a 20% chance to win. And since people won't bet double the pot, and you can make other decisions, in some cases you can call with maybe a 15% chance to win or around 8 outs on the turn.
And then there's the book "raiser's edge" that actually attempts to estimate some more exact "equilibrium" strategies. Now most work in books is befrore the flop, but I haved a real good understanding AFTER the flop. I have an even better understanding of different exploitative approaches but we will cover that next.
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