Gameplan:
The goal early in a tournament is to survive to the antes with a competitive stack. The primary goal is to protect chips when you have enough worth protecting. You should still seek out weaker opponents by making larger raises with strong hands and larger bets on the flop, turn and river, but more checking to protect your strong hands from reverse implied odds. If you don't catch any big hands or win pots with reasonable hands here, you will have to eventually shift gears and loosen up your standards. Raise with a big hand, protect your big hands by checking more often to get to showdown, and betting larger when you do bet. Follow this tapering guide.
With over 50 big blinds pre antes we raise with the following hands or tighter.
No Antes:
8: JJ+,AK || 77-TT A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,[67s-KQs]
7: JJ+,AK,Aqs || 55-TT, A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,[67s-KQs]
6: JJ+,AQ+ || 33-TT, A4s+,KTs+,QTs+,[45s-KQs]
5: TT+,AQ+ || 22+,A4s+,K9s+,Q9s, [45s-KQs]
4: 99+,AQ+,AJs,KQs || 22-88, A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+, [64s-J9s]+,45s
3: 88+,AJ+,ATs,KQs || 22-77, KQ, A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+, [64s-J9s]+,45s
2: 66+,AT+,KQ,A9s,KJs+ || 22-77, [78-QJ], A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+, [53s-J9s]+
1: 44+,A7+,KT+,QJ,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+ || 22,33,A2-A6,k2-K9,Q8-QT,J7+,T7+,97+,[45o-87o], Q2s+,J7s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,54s,43s
The separator shows the hands which have some value over "optimal" 3 betting strategy vs those that don't and are effectively a semibluff. Just because a hand has "value" doesn't mean you should raise. If your opponent 3bets with 20% of hands, 10% of hands have value, but if you raise, your opponent might only call with the top 5% of hands. That would mean that only the top 5% of hands could be raised while the 5-10% range should be called... with some bluff raises with hands not in the top 10%and slow play calls of the top 5% mixed in to balance your range. Bluff 3 betting hands might be a single suited connector or two single suited connectors like 65s and 78s.
The 3betting strategy of opponents is calculated such that they have a 50% chance of having the best hand if they had acted with the information you had when they raised, and a 2/3 chance of being able to make you fold if you don't mix in bluffs or implied odds. But the real optimal solution would be more complicated and contain more calls and some bluff raises. But if they call or raise more often than this, in general play fewer hands for bluffs, and slightly more of your "bluffs" become value.
If they 3bet wider but fold to 4bets, you can mix in some more 3 bet bluffs and also call with the worst part of your range. If they rarely 3bet and often call, you should fold to a 3bet but raise more often since you will have steal opportunities and showdown value by seeing more flops, turns, and rivers.
The postflop value of position means you probably should play a lot tighter in early and middle position than this and looser in later position. Also, a lot of the suited connector types out of position are "semibluffs" as said, and as such are probably not profitable, and not necessary since opponents probably won't adapt to your game the way that they should.
Against people who reraise and call more liberally, we can get rid of a lot of the "semibluff" hands when raising, and can widen the range which gets value. Many people are the opposite and don't 3bet very often, particularly early, and as such we can open slightly wider but should be much tighter about continuing vs a 3bet.
With over 50 big blinds after the antes:
Antes:
8: TT+,AQ+,Ajs | 22-88, A9s+,[45s-KQs]
7: TT+,AJ+,Ats+,KQs | 22-88, {A9s-J9s}+,[45s-KQs]
6: 88+,AJ+,Ats+,KQs | 22-88, A4s+,{A9s-J9s}+,[45s-KQs]
5: 77+,AT+,KQ,A7s+,KTs+ | 22+,[KQo-T9o],A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,[64s-J9s]+,54s
4: 77+,A8+,KT+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs |22+,[45o-KQo],K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,[53s-J9s]+,43s
3: 66+,A8+,KT+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+ |22+,[45o-KQo],K4s+,Q8s+,J8s+,[53s-J9s]+,43s
2: 22+,A2+,k2+,Q2+,J5+,T7+,97+,86+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s,43s
1: A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T5+,96+,85+,75+,64+,54,T2s+,93s+,84s+,74s+,63s+,53s+,43s
Although you should start tight early, if you don't pick up a good spot or a good hand, eventually you may have to increase your aggressiveness to pick up some chips. So 2-4 levels before the antes with a 30 to 50 big blinds you still have the utility left to make a move so you give yourself a chance to go into the antes with a decent stack. So you are going to have to try one of 3 moves. The dead money grab, the resteal, or the position play (flat call on the button without much of a hand). A squeeze play shove also isn't a bad idea but is probably the riskiest play and hopefully isn't necessary. Alternatively you can just open up your range on the button, cutoff and hijack to virtually any two at tighter tables to try to give yourself a chance at having a good stack entering the ante stages and use the postflop position and Cbets.
In the ante stages you get a much better price on your steals, but most of the hands that have enough equity when called will lose enough from reverse implied odds that they won't be worth it. The weak kicker types are emoted and replaced with lower connected cards that won't be trouble and that can be semibluffed. Due to position over the blinds and tightness of other players, usually opening this range or wider even is fine. However, you need to avoid drawing too much attention to yourself by trying to avoid raising twice in a row when you don't have a good hand the 2nd time and avoid 3 hands in a row when you don't have a hand that can withstand a reraise like JJ+,AK. Avoid raising the short stacks blinds because they have nothing to lose. Also, you want to target the blinds of players with more chips to remove their utility and get them in a position when they are playing to min ash so that they aren't a threat to you.
3bet strategy NO ANTES between 30 and 50 BBs (or more)
When facing tight raise (sometimes flat to trap with QQ+, sometimes 3bet jam with AK)
3bet: AA,KK,QQ,[AK]A5s,{T8s}
flat: 22-JJ,[QQ+],AK,Ats+,Kts+,Qts+,{JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s}
{only flat the suited connectors in position and only raise T8s in position}
When facing loose raise
3bet: QQ+,AK,A2s-A5s,{T9s,87s}
flat: 22-JJ,AQ,A6s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,{98s,76s}
{in position only, otherwise fold}
Antes 3bet strategy 30-50 BBs (or more)
3bet or flat:
when facing tight raise
3bet: QQ+,AK,A2s-A5s,T9s,87s
flat: 22-JJ,AQ,A6s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,76s,65s,54s
when facing loose raise
3bet: TT+,AQ,AJs,A2s-A5s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
flat: 22-TT,AJ,KT+,QT+,JT,T9,98,87,76,65,54,A6s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s,97s,86+,75s
2 levels before the antes and 2 levels into the antes, Utility Theory comes into full effect where we are approaching this tournament as if the bubble factor is 0.80 which means the chips you gain at this stage is worth more than the chips you risk due to the future return you get from having a larger stack. You have to make it to the antes with a competitive stack or once you get to the antes you have to try to make some moves to get a stack.
This means we should "gamble" to gain a stack even when we don't have the pot odds.
0.80 bubble factors
When you make 2.25xBB and are faced with a 20BB shove
3bet range of KK+ it still requires AA to call
3bet range of JJ+ requires QQ+
JJ+,AK 3bet requires JJ+,AK
TT+,AK,AQs requires JJ+,AK as well but TT and AQs are very close.
88+,AQ+,AJs,KQs requires 88+,AQ+,AJs+
77+,ATs+,AJo+ requires 22+,AQ+,AJs+,KTs+
77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo requires 22+,A9o+,A2s+,KQo,KTs+
22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo requires 22+,A5o,A7o+,A2s+,KTo+,K6s+QJo,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s
About 25% of hands or
66+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
Requires 22+,A2+,K2+,Q9o+,Q2s+,J9o+,J7s+,T9o,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s
About 50% of hands requires 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J5o+,J2s+,T7o+,T2s+,97o+,95s+,87o,84s+,
74s+,64s,53s+,43s
Any two and you can call pretty much any two suited cards and all but 72o,62o,52o,42o,43o,23o.
Flush draw or open ended straight draw call off on the flop for twice the pot raise or smaller, or make an up to 3.5x pot shove yourself or smaller. Call off your tournament life with a low pair and back door straight flush draw for a pot sized bet or smaller and make a 2.5x shove or smaller.
Approximate Open Shoving for 20BBs with 0.80 bubble factor Without Antes:
8 99+AK,AQs
7 88+,AQ+,AJs
6 88+,AQo+,ATs+,KQs
5 66+,AJo+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs
4 55+,ATo+,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s,J9s,T9s
3 33+,ATo+,KQo+A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s,T8s+,97s+
2 33+,A9o+,A5s+,KTo+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,97s+,87s
1 22+,A8o,K8o+,K2s+,Q8o+,Q5s+,J8o+,J7s+,T8o+,T6s+,97o+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s
Approximate open shoving strategy with 0.80 bubble factor and 20 big blinds WITH antes:8 88+,AQ+,AJs+,KQs+
7 66+,AQ+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs
6 55+,AT+,A9s+,KQo,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s
5 55+,A9o+,A7s+,KJo,K8s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s
4 22+,A8+,A4s+,KTo+,K8s+,QJ,Q8s+,JT,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s
3 22+,A6+,A2s+,KT+,K7s+,Q9+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s
2 22+,AT+,K8+,K2s+,Q9+,Q7s+,J8+,J7s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s
1 22+,A2+,K2+,Q7+,Q2s+,J7+,J2s+,T7+,T5s+,98o,95s+,87o,85s+,75s+,64s+,53s+
We want to stay above 30 big blinds in the first few levels of the antes so we can preserve the ability to maintain full utility and decent raise sizes with our full range of hands. Staying in the 20 to 30 big blind range is still adequate due to tapering.
Once you get past the first couple levels of the antes, the utility theory declines and the opportunity cost for surviving rises. Treat the 3rd to 5th level into the antes like a cash game which will still be slightly lower than the ICM suggests.
1.0 bubble factors or cash games: calling off 6BBs 1.375 to 1 not in blinds*
Need to be 42.1% to win
8 44+,AT+,A8s+,KQs
7 33+,A9+,A7s+,KQ,KJs+
6 22+,A8+,A5s+,KQ,KTs+,QJs
5 22+,A7+,A2s+,KJ+,KTs+,QJs
4 22+,A4+,A2s+,KT+,K9s+,QTs+
3 22+,A2+,KT+,K8s+,QJ,QTs+,JTs
from blinds*
SB button push:22+,A2+,K5+,K2s+,Q9+,Q6s+,JT,J8s+,T8s+,98s
BB button push:22+,A2+,K2+,K2s+,Q7+,Q2s+,J8,J4s+,T8+,T6s+,98,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s
BB w SB push 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J4+,J2s+,t6+,T2s+,97o+,95s+,87o,85s+,75s+,65s,54s
Calling off 10BB shoves
With 1.225 to 1 Odds, Need to be 44.94% to win
8 77+,AJ+,ATs+
7 66+,AJ+,ATs
6 55+,AT+,A9s+,KQ,KJs+
5 33+,A9+,A5s+,KQ,KTs+
4 22+,A7+,A2s+,KQ+,KJs+
3 22+,A4+,A2s+,KJ+,KTs+,QJs
from blinds*
SB button push: 22+,A2+,K7+,K5s+,QT+,Q9s+,J9s
BB button push: 22+,A2+,K8+,K2s+,Q9+,Q8s+,J9s+,
BB w SB push: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q6+,Q2s+,J8+,J4s+,T9+,T7s+,97s+,87s
Otherwise use shovebot charts.
Depending on when the money pays and your skill, you could potentially quickly shift to where your survival is worth much more. You really want to survive to the bubble with a competitive stack so that means not gambling more than the ICM suggests, so a major inflection takes place.
You should quickly approach the bubble factor as if you are actually on the bubble before you get there, so you can maximize your probability of getting there. Once you are there you want to push as if the bubble doesn't matter, but call off your chips as if it does.
Bubble Factor 1.6: Facing 6BB cash game optimal shoves when we have 6BBs left.
need to be 53.78% to call off 6BB shove vs these ranges on bubble.
8 88+,AQo+,AJs+
7 88+,AJ+
6 88+,AJo+, ATs+
5 77+,AT+
4 77+,AT+,A9s+
(did not adjust pot odds for being in the blinds)
3 66+,A9+,A8s+,KQs
2 55+,A8+,A7s,KQ,KTs+
1 44+,A3+,A2s+K8+,K5s+,QT+,Q9s+,JTs
Facing 10xBB shove vs cash game optimal shoves with 1.6 bubble factor:
We need to win 56.64% to call vs these ranges
8 TT+,AK
7 99+,AK+
6 99+,AQs+
5 99+,AQ+,AJs
4 99+,AQ+,AJs
(did not adjust the pot odds for being in the blinds)
3 88+,AJ+,ATs+
2 88+,AT+,A9s+
BB 66+, A8o+,A7s+,KJo+,KTs+
Facing 10x open shove with 1.6 bubble factor:
Call off with KK+ only vs a TT+,AK pushing range
Call off with QQ+ vs 99+,AQ
Call off with QQ+ vs 8% range
Call off with JJ+ vs 10% range
Call off with TT+,AK vs 15% range.
Call off with 99+,AK,AQs+ vs top 20% range.
Call off with 99+,AQ,AJs+ vs top 25% range.
Call off with 77+,AJ+,ATs+ vs vs top 50% range.
Call off with 55+,A7+,A2s+,KJ+,K9s+,QTs+ vs any two shover.
note: We should be slightly tighter if we still have people left to act.
20BBs call off facing 3bet that puts you all in or commits more than 25% of your stack:
Call off with KK+ vs TT+,AK pushing range.
Call off with QQ+ vs 99+,AQ.
Call off with JJ+,AKs vs 8%+10% range.
Call off with TT+,AK,AQs+ vs 15% range.
Call off with 99+,AQ+,AJs+ vs top 20% range.
Call off with 88+,AJ+ vs top 25% range.
Call off with 55+,A8+,A7s+,KQo,KTs+ vs top 50% range.
Call off with 44+,A4+,A2s+,KT+,K7s+,QJ, Q9s+,J9s+ vs any two card shover.
Never raise more than 65% of the time with 20BBs and 1.6 bubble factors or you are very exploitable to a reshove in any and all situations.
Unexploitable opening 2.25x hand range with 1.6 bubble factors (hands before the | signifies hands that you can call off a "cash game optimal" shove with.)
8 JJ+ | 99+,AQ+ATs+,KQs,QJs
7 JJ+,AK,Aqs| 66+,AJ+,Ats+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs
6 TT+,AK+,AQs| 55+,AJ+,A9s+,KQo,KTs+,QTs+,JTs
5 99+,AQ+,AJs+,KQs| 22+,AT+,A5s+,KJo+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,
4 99+,AT+,ATs+,KQs| 22+,A8+,KT+,QJ,JT,A2s+K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s
3 99+,AJ+,ATs+,KQs| 22+,A8+,KT+,QJ,JT,A2s+K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s
2 77+,AT+,A9s+,KQ,KTs+| 22+,A5+,KT+,QJ,JT,A2s+K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s
Note:If opponents respect bubble factors and don't think you do (won't 3bet liberally) you can exploitatively raise wider to much wider than this. If opponents do not respect bubble factors OR are utility theorists OR assume you do and thus 3bet liberally, there is less need to raise with hands that you will not call off vs shoves which thus effectively are in some ways "bluffs" or at least semibluffs. Similarly, you can shove much wider than the shovebot charts or squeeze play math suggests but should call much tighter.
On and near the actual bubble you can raise with virtually any two cards. You want the image of someone willing to call off your tournament life without actually wanting to. That way people shouldn't reraise you if they care about their tournament life unless they have a really powerful hand.
As the bubble bursts everyone else who survived is going to start getting it all in MUCH looser and begin racing again. Hopefully you have built up the chipstack to survive the all in fest because you still want low varience accumulation. So after the bubble I would probably open much tighter as if I was on the actual bubble, but be willing to call off a little bit looser and not require that great of edge.
As you approach the final table bubble it's different. Even though you probably could exploit and steal by raising more aggressively, it becomes too costly. Moving all in becomes too risky, and you've already accumulated a huge percentage of all the chips in play. You don't have much farther to go. You should instead be playing to triple up rather than double up which means you should be comfortable as a short stack.
Playing to survive carries with it some value, but if everyone is playing to survive you can with very low risk, thrive off of low risk steal attempts. I think the mistake that most people make is they are initially planning on folding their way into the final table, but then at some point they change their mind or think they are more desperate than they are so they jam with A9 and get called by AJ or something.
If you are going to adopt a max patience strategy, you need to know just how patient you can be. You also will want to know what the equivalent of that patience is with regards to the odds you have the best hand preflop so that you can take an adjusted max patience strategy, such that when it folds to you, given the number of players you have the equivalent hand of a max patience strategy given the number of players left. You also probably want to consider raising about 3 times as often as you are willing to call a shove with such that you have a max patience raise strategy as a baseline. This gives you a chance to buy a little bit more time without being exploitable. You also might jam 1.5 to 2.5 times the hand range you are willing to call off with if you have less than 15 big blinds.
You should make a few larger raises that make it look like opponents have zero fold equity such as 3-4 big blinds when you have 12-15 big blinds or up to 5x when you have nearly 20BBs. It's odd, pot committing raises that you are actually willing to fold that are exploitable, but who's going to call it unless they are willing to call a shove? And what looks stronger? Probably a 3-4x raise. You shouldn't mind making these with mid pair and AK and AQ as well and if it fails and someone shoves and you fold, you probably should think about doing it with QQ+ happy to steal the blinds, but not concerned if someone shoves.
You also might be willing to give up a higher rate of gain for a higher rate of survival as you approach the final table such as limping in with your raising range with under 25 big blinds, and reraise shoving your hands that have value vs an optimal 3bet. Or such as checking the river rather than thin value betting in position. Or checking the FLOP for pot control rather than just the turn and potentially ALSO the turn depending on what card comes with top pair and better hands that are vulnerable to monster draws. You might use FLAT betting rather than a percentage of the pot size such that you might bet the same amount on every street.
Another key principal is to steal from the other big stacks as you approach the final table and especially 5 handed on in, while giving the shorter stacks a pass. You eventually want EVERYONE playing for second place so that requires taking a few more chances against those with more chips or as much or nearly as much as you. If people are trying to fold up the money and you keep this situation around as long as possible, it will benefit you. Make big folds as long as you are able to hang in there and get your fair share of the blinds, even short handed, but don't be afraid to push your stack in the middle and put the opponent to the tough decision if they are capable of folding.
Technically the final table bubble pops and the ICM is in slow decline to 1 from the final table on.
I believe people underestimate how easy it is to be incredibly "sticky" by playing what seems like way too tight. Playing to "survive" seems like a loser's strategy, but when you are close to the end of the tournament, surviving long enough equals a second place finish or even a win.
A Maximum patience strategy may more accurately assess the blinds, the probability you get dealt a better hand, and how to play given the structure and your chips stack than an ICM based strategy with a high bubble factor might. It is at this point where there are probably a fixed amount of double ups before someone wins the tournaments plus or minus a few steals. If you only need 3 double ups to win the tournament, it doesn't really make sense to double up sooner and win the hand earlier, which is what happens if you take a slightly higher EV strategy, but still get money in with 3 double ups to win. Granted having an extra big blind or two has a slight possibility of having implications in that if your opponent who you have covered doubles up, you may have a few more chips from which to double up back or if they have you covered and you win, you are a little bit closer to the win. But the chances of a few big blinds making the difference is probably smaller than the advantage you get from being more patient, particularly due to the equity rise of waiting until other people knock themselves out. While a ICM of 1.6 would say that you can call off a 10BB shove with 99+,AK,AQs+ vs top 20% shoving range. That's pretty tight, but if you were in a tournament where the blinds rise faster, there may be more value in calling off looser because you are unlikely to find a better spot, and the equity jump of moving up a few spots isn't necessarily worth folding. Conversely, if you have about 40 hands left, you have well over a 50% chance of getting JJ+. If it folds to you with 4 players left to act and you have JJ, you have a 94.7% chance of a remaining opponent not having QQ+ and an 85.75% chance of no opponent having QQ+,AQ+.
If you really wanted to, you could determine a call range, a value derived in BBs from when opponents fold, and an approximate value they call based upon the probability you get called and the range of hand you get called with and compare JJ+ to 99+,AK,AQs and see which provides the greater chance of survival. Of course that isn't enough information since you could also call with 99+,AK,AQs now and occasionally survive to get that JJ+. And the blinds may go up since then and the possibility of you having to widen your range to include AKs or TT, AQs or AKo exists. Plus you may not get JJ+ in middle position and folds to you, you may get a raise from a stronger range of hands or it may fold to you in the big blind.
But there are probably complicated methods and monte carlo simulations that could be done to try to assess the value of a call off in final table spots vs the probably alternatives.
When you are ridiculously short stacked, people will call you, and you may get called twice, or better yet called once and then reraised shove isolated to where the first caller folds. The antes rising can actually improve the value of patience as well. So the more patient you are, the more value there is in being more patient to a certain extent. The blinds and antes are always increasing insuring the price you get on your "double up" or "triple up" is constantly improving. While just maintaining your chipstack isn't going to buy you any additional hands, it's only a matter of time before the bigger stacks run the AQ vs AK hands and think it's good. So even surviving caries with it a huge payout in moving up the money. More importantly, if/when you do double/triple up if you can show a big hand, people are much much more likely to fold to your raises and shoves.
People tend not to notice your style as often as you might think, but the combination of not seeing you in any hand and then finally seeing you turn over a monster will probably get enough attention immediately after to make them second guess calling.
The overall goal is to think about the total odds of winning every all in until you win the tournament and try to both reduce the number of all ins required and increase the odds when all in, plus add enough uncontested steal and add tremendous amount of value for strategies that help moving up in the money. The final table and near it is where you see Phil Helmuth do some very odd things like make what seems like a lot committing raise UTG as a really really short stacked with just about any two and then fold to a raise. Granted, this is with tournaments with much slower structures. But he is using his tight image to make that raise, and the value of survival being disproportional to try to pick up the next round of rotation at the lowest risk possible. If he doesn't get it, he still can get great pot odds to call off an all in from the big blind, or even survive another rotations worth before the next big blind he is basically calling no matter what. A lot can happen in two rotations and if the steal succeeds he can probably fold for another rotation or two before he needs to make steal attempt and if it fails he again probably has to go with whatever hand he has in the big blind.
The fold is about chance of survival. There is very little difference between doubling up to 16 big blinds or 13 big blinds in regards to your Overall equity and probability of finishing in each place. This is true such that it's okay to fold with good pot odds or even great pot odds and make a steal attempt that in normal scenarios should be a shove. But buying another rotation plus the ability to make another steal later can be invaluable as a short stack as you can easily see two people get knocked out in that time and still manage to either pick up a monster hand or another steal and buy more time. If it fails, a double up can still buy you a lot of time, particularly if the blinds rise or there's more dead money in the pot due to a raise and a call in front of you or a few limpers and you shove and a few limpers fold. For all you know you may even get a walk in the big blind if the late position players are worried about the small blind having a hand and the small blind has 26o.
Be ridiculously tight until you catch that double up hand and probably get action. You constantly adjust the number of "hands left". So your actual odds of catching a hand before you blind down to whatever line in the sand you draw are much higher than 50% overall. Since you are gladly trading some EV in chips for greater probability of survival, you are waiting to close to the best spot/hand you can reasonably expect to get. The goal is to play to survive until short handed with the tightest image possible, and use whatever recent attention you have drawn about being tight to your advantage. Shift gears to become much more aggressive.
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