Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Squeeze play all in for 5x pot 30%

Rather than continue onto 40% raiser and 40% caller and continue through, I may not have time to do much more anytime soon so I'm going to skip to 30% raiser and 30% caller for 5x the pot.
So if opponent raises 3x and opponent calls there is 7.5 in the pot without antes and maybe 8.5 with antes. A 5x shove will be 37.5 big blinds or 42.5x big blinds. That's a pretty significant move and as a result, opponents should be able to tighten their calling ranges, and because we are risking so much, we likely will have to tighten our shoving ranges.

So 30% raiser will raise:
22+, A9+,KT+,QT+,JT,T9,98,87,76,65,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
Let's first start out with them calling 50% of the range like last time.
33+,A9+,KQ,A6s+,KTs+,QJs
We now have to be 40.74% to win for the push to be profitable.
66+,A9o+,A5s+,KTs+,QJs
You win 0.91795x the pot per shove but you only get to shove 11.9% of hands so that's .1082x pots per situation you're dealt a hand which is probably about .8 big blinds.

We'll have to try tightening the calling range and widening it to see. I suspect tighter is better since we have more chips.
Tighten it to:
66+AT+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs
Opponent is calling 36.4% of the time each which translates into you having a 60% chance of being called rather than 75%.
We need to only win just over 36.90% of the time for the 5x squeeze to be a good call because opponents folds more often. A weird thing happens in that KJo becomes profitable to shove because KQ is no longer in opponent's range so it's not easily dominated
Shove range vs this calling range: 77+,AT+,KJ+,A8s+,K9s+,QJs
You win  .081224 per situation so this is definitely a better decision for your opponent to reduce your shoving range by tightening it up.

I don't think too much tighter is better but I don't know.
For now until I have the time to do more work I will just say that the squeeze play for 5x pot requires opponents to be tighter. If opponents each play 30% of hands and there is a raise and a call
Push with 77+,AT+,KJ+,A8s+,K9s+,QJs
vs calling range of 66+AT+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs

If I had to guess I would say that given that one out of many opponents raised and called, even if individually they are looser suggests a slightly better range of hand. Players are more likely to have folded low cards and less likely to have folded high cards and since high cards ar preferable, and out of 9 opponents one is a lot more likely to hold a strong hand that you may want to err on the tighter side of both the call and shove, particularly without more information about whether a tighter opponent can force a shoving strategy to make less.

At what point is shoving with 27o profitable? Opponents would have to tighten up to only calling with 99+,AK,AQs and sometimes fold AQo for them to be tight enough to allow pushing with any two. That's pretty insane and makes me wonder if the caller should play tighter than the above strategy which would force the shover to push less often. But the work will have to be done some other time to approximate the 5x the pot squeeze shove.

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