Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Max Patience 2.0 Raise + Call All In

Our Max Patience 2.0 strategy upgraded from here looks to identify the point in which you have around a 50% chance of finding an equal or better hand than those listed given X hands left. It was adjusted for probability that hand is best by position when it folds to you. Folding a better hand is usually not advised. Calling off all your chips with worse certainly may be okay, but just be aware that you are giving up opportunity cost of finding a better spot. Since a double up will rarely double the number of "hands dealt" to you before the next all in, you are giving up more opportunity by calling than folding on a 50/50 or even a 55/45.

If a 4bet represents an all in, you only want to 3bet such that you cannot be exploited by a 4bet and as such you might only 3bet 2.5-4 times the frequency of hands that you will call all in with. If a 3bet is an all in you want your opening range when folded to to be only 2.5-4 times the frequency of that which you call.

A Max Patience strategy has the most value towards the late stages of a tournament where opponents are aggressively gunning for the win and are likely to bust themselves and make you money by just surviving. You can't afford to really be any more of a nit than this except in rare circumstances or super satellite bubbles so I consider this the baseline for the tightest possible strategy and you should probably not consider playing any tighter in most tournament situations. Of course, if you are confident you are beat don't obsess over the chart. The chart tries to give you blind values of waiting for the best possible spot but given preflop action one particular spot my actually be much less profitable so you shouldn't mindlessly follow this chart ever, either.

If you are looking to minimize chip volatility a max patience strategy isn't bad. Particularly if you map out the blind structure and determine that you should be able to survive to 5 players left without confrontation just by folding or think you only need one more double up to deep final table or win it. Even so, you should still be willing to raise about 3 times as often as you'd call all in with and in some cases 3bet 3 times as often and open 6 times as often if a 4bet is an al in shove. (Keep in mind you can shove with a wider range than you can call with). This will still give you the ability to call all in (or push) often enough to not really be exploited unless your chips are really shallow, and certainly shove often enough where opponents fold to make up for the times you've folded if you have a deep enough stack to 4bet shove. It will also keep you active enough to prolong your number of hands or letting opponents see that you can fold to a shove without being exploitable.

First, let's review the max patience call all in strategy where you are certain you get called (or calling an all in) and want to wait for the best hand that you have a 50% chance of getting or better. Typically you should push with at least 50% more hands than you call, but if opponent will always call you that number should decline closer to the call all in hand range.

Call off max patience charts
Under 10 hands left
8 (1 hand left before blind): 22+,A2+,KT+,K6s+,QT+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s
7 (2 hands left): 22+,A7+,A2s+,KJ+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs
6 (3 hands left): 33+,A9+,A4s+,KQ,KTs+,QJs
5 (4 hands left): 33+,AT+,A4s+,KQ,KTs+,QJs
4 (5 hands left): 33+,AT+,A4s+,KQ,KTs+,QJs
3 (6 hands left): 22+,A9+,A2s+,KJ+,KTs+,QJs
2 (7 hands left): 22+,A5+,A2s+,KT+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs
1 (8 hands left): 22+,A4+,A2s+,KT+,K7s+,QJ,Q9s+,JTs
1 (9 hands left): 22+,A5+,A2s+,KT+,K8s+,QJ,Q9s+,JTs

    Just over 10 hands left
8 players left to act (utg 9 handed):TT+,AK
7 players left 99+,AK,AQs
6 players left: 99+, AQ+
5 players: 99+, AQ+
4 players: 77+, AQ+, AJs, KQs
3: 55+, AJ+, ATs+, KJs+
2 (button):33+, A5s+, Kts+, qjs+,AT+, KQ
1 (small blind): 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s JTs, A4+, KT+, QJ

     20 hands left:
8: JJ+
7: JJ+, AKs
6:TT+, AKs
5:TT+, AKs
4: TT+, AK
3:88+, AQs+, AK
2:88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AQ+

     30 hands left
8: QQ+
7: QQ+
6: JJ+
5: JJ+
4: JJ+, AQs+
3: TT+,AK
2: TT+, AQ+
1: 55+,A9s+, KJs+ AJ+, QJs,

     50 hands left
8:KK+
7:KK+
6:KK+
5:KK+
4:QQ+
3:JJ+,AKs
2:TT+,AK
1:99+,AJs+,AQ+

    60 hands left
8    AA
7    KK+
6    KK+
5    KK+
4    QQ+
3    QQ+,Aks
2    JJ+,Aks
1    99+,AK,Aqs

    70 hands left
8    AA
7    AA
6    KK+
5    KK+
4    KK+
3    QQ+
2    JJ+,Aks
1    99+,AK


     80 hands left
8    AA
7    AA
6    KK+
5    KK+
4    KK+
3    QQ+
2    JJ+,Aks
1    TT+,AK

     100 hands left
8    AA
7    AA
6    AA
5    AA
4    KK+
3    KK+
2    QQ+
1    TT+,Aks

I would not wait to raise with a hand if you have some stacks. Even if opponent shoves you off of it, you have to make sure opponents aren't aware of how tight you are and let them prove you'll get action when you have a hand. So you need to raise more often. You also want to at least give yourself a chance at buying more time to wait for a hand. So raise 3 times the hands you would call a shove with.

3bet max patience strategy where 4bet is all in shove or opening raise max patience where 3bet is all in shove:

Less than 30 hands left: Consider using push/fold charts or tightened modified version of them until you buy more time or double the call all in max patience charts so that you push with twice the range you call with.

    30 hands left   
8    99+,AK   
7    99+,AK   
6    99+,AQ+   
5    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KQs   
4    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QJs+   
3    66+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
2    44+,AT+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s   
1    22+,A4+,KT+,QJ,JT,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T9s+,98s,87s   
    40 hands left   
8    TT+,Aks   
7    TT+,Aks   
6    99+,AK   
5    99+,AK   
4    99+,AQ+   
3    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QJs+   
2    66+,AJ+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
1    22+,A9+,A3s+,KJ+,K9s+,QJ,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,   
    50 hands left   
8    JJ+,Aks   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    TT+,Aks   
5    TT+,Aks   
4    99+,AK   
3    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KQs   
2    88+,AQ+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
1    33+,AT+,KJ+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s   
    60 hands left   
8    JJ+,Aks   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    JJ+,Aks   
5    TT+,Aks   
4    99+,AK   
3    99+,AQ+   
2    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QJs+   
1    44+,AT+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s   
    70 hands left   
8    JJ+,Aks   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    JJ+,Aks   
5    JJ+,Aks   
4    TT+,Aks   
3    99+,AK   
2    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KQs   
1    55+,AJ+,KQ,A9s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s   
    80 hands left   
8    KK+   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    JJ+,Aks   
5    JJ+,Aks   
4    TT+,Aks   
3    TT+,Aks   
2    99+,AQ+   
1    66+,AJ+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
    100 hands left   
8    KK+   
7    KK+   
6    KK+   
5    JJ+,Aks   
4    JJ+,Aks   
3    TT+,Aks   
2    99+,AK   
1    88+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs

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