Monday, June 22, 2015

Game Theory Optimal Preflop Poker 2

In Optimal Preflop Poker, I took the approach of first seeing how our opponents should play us to force us to break even on bluffs, and then I showed how we would need to have approximately 45% equity due to the price we are getting because of the blinds. Those will be our value hands. We will then add enough bluff hands such that our opponent won't be able to exploit us by raising every time., and such that we have a "value hand" often enough to force him to break even on his bluffs.

Since our opponent will be betting 9 over our raise of 3 to pick up a total of 4.5 with the blinds, he needs to be able to win 2/3 pots to be able to bluff successfully. As such, we need a hand 1/3 times in which we can raise him. Some of these will be value hands, some will be bluffs.

So we can approximately multiply any hand with 45% equity by 3 and that gives us the range of hands in which we should open with initially.

So we need hands with 45% equity vs:
8    4.95%    99+,AQ
7    5.63%    99+,AQ,Ajs,KQs
6    6.53%    99+,AQ,Ats+,KJs,QJs
5    7.79%    88+,Ats+,KTs+,Qjs,JTs
4    9.64%    66+,AJ+,Ats+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs
3    12.64%    55+,AJ+,KQ,A9s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s
2    18.35%    22+,A9+,KJ+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s
1    33.33%    22+,A2+,K9+,QT+K5s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s+

That turns out to be:
8: JJ+,AK
7: JJ+,AK,AQs
6: JJ+,AQ+
5: TT+,AQ+
4: 99+,AQ+,AJs,KQs
3: 88+,AJ+,ATs,KQs
2: 66+,AT+,KQ,A9s,KJs+
1: 44+,A7+,KT+,QJ,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+

Then determine percentage of all hands that makes up and multiply hand range by 3 to add in "bluff range" and have total range where 1/3 hands are value.

8    0.090497738
7    0.099547511
6    0.126696833
5    0.140271493
4    0.171945701
3    0.194570136
2    0.294117647
1    0.601809955

And that gives you total hand range given X players left to act. (This is approximately ideal if the solution didn't allow for a mixture of hands such that you might sometimes play 56s and mostly fold but mostly play JTs and rarely fold)

8    66+,AQ+,Ats+,Kts+,QTs+,JTs 9%
7    66+,AJ+,A9s+,Kts+,QTs+,JTs 9.9%
6    55+,AJ+,KQ,A9s+K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s 12.7%
5    44+,AT+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s 14%
4    22+,AT+,KJ+,A6s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s 17.2%
3    22+,A9+,KJ+,A3s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s 19.5%
2    22+,A3+,K9+,QT+K5s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T8s+,97s+,87s+ 29.4%
1    22+,A2+,k2+,Q6+,J7+,T7+,97+,87,Q2s+,J3s+,T5s+,95s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,54s,43s 60.2%

When we are reraised, we should 4bet a mixture of value bets and bluffs and also flat call a mixture of value hands and hands for future bluffing and to disguise our range.

That is how one can act with no antes and perfectly matched preflop and postflop play. Because the postflop play is evenly matched, the pot will be "chopped". In reality it will be very high volatility with a lot of actions on each street. A small difference in skill can be very dangerous for the person who starts with the worst hand, particularly one that is easily dominated. As such, it is almost always better to be tighter preflop and that allows you to be more aggressive and looser on the flop rather than fight for very small edges and break even hands to neutralize your valuable hands and force opponent to call you down lighter overall which allows value hands to make more at the expense of having to play a lot of "break even hands".

It also is "impossible" to instantly know opponent's strategy so if he raises you and you start out with a wide range of hands like this you can run into a lot of trouble.

As such, usually I recommend playing such that YOU have a greater than 50% chance of being best, rather than playing "bluff hands" to force opponent to play such that your bluffs break even and HE has 50% chance of being best.

However, it goes to show that in the right circumstances a "nutball strategy" not only is possible, but optimal against tough opponents and an even looser one may be best if you have a significant post flop skill advantage.

Up next we will get into Optimal Preflop Poker when antes are involved which hopefully will illustrate just how much you need to loosen up in tournaments when antes kick in.

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