Nutball Tournament System Preflop 2

The start of the nutball tournament system looked at the optimal preflop poker, and used roughly the same frequency of hands but adjusted the specific hands for implied odds, preferring hands that had drawing potential over hands that might run into kicker troubles even if these hands may not necessarily have the right showdown equity when the hands are simply checked to the river.

The concept is to be aggressive and either semibluff more or get paid off enough when you hit with these hands while avoiding kicker troubles to make up for the slight drawback of hands not being strong enough to have the equity when called preflop.

This is still somewhat approximate to "equilibrium" or GTO play preflop where we gain to the degree which opponents make a mistake, but we are not directly speculating or observing opponent's tendency and trying to capitalize off of them but instead recognizing the inherent benefit in real postflop poker that drawing hands have over weak kicker hands.

Not having to make a big call on the river with a top pair weak kicker hand is of large benefit. Sometimes you may hit your draw and bet it for value and sometimes you will represent your range that the board has hit and bluff the river.

Also of benefit is being able to profitably semibluff overbets in certain conditions to put opponent's all in by keeping in mind the semibluff chart shown below. The % to win is the probability you win when called and based on the multiple of pot you are giving a percentage chance you need all remaining opponents to fold in order to show a profit.

Due to the non-linearity of chips, you probably want to raise the standards to have opponents fold more often than this in tournaments.

This post will look at the conditions necessary to speculate profitably on when opponents left to act are too tight in the ante stages in order to loosen up your hand ranges even more.

If your raise range of any two vs calling range of opponents has zero equity when opponents don't fold, or opponents make a monster overbet shove when they do play, you can raise with any two if remaining players defend this often assuming you bet the amount in the pot:

8 players left: All opponents each must play 8.2996% of hands or less to a raise for steal to be profitable.
7: 9.43% of hands or less.
6: 10.91% of hands or less.
5: 12.95% of hands or less.
4: 15.91% of hands or less.
3: 20.63% of hands or less.
Button: Steal profitable if blinds play 29.29% of all hands or less.
Small blind: Steal profitable if opponent plays 50% of all hands or less.
Big blind: Opponent must fold 50% of the hands he completes with or more.

Fortunately, when opponent calls you still have two cards with potential, so you still have some equity when called. Assuming bets break even after the flop or it checks to the river, as long as you have more than 0% equity you can steal if opponent's defend more often.

So based upon the understanding that if it's automatically checked to the river and you are 20% to win when called (and all bets on and after flop break even), the preflop steal must succeed 35.56% of the time or more to profit.

Raise with any hand that has 20% equity if remaining opponents call/defend this often or less:

8    12.13% (remaining opponents on average play 22+,AJ+,ATs,KQ,KTs+,QJs or less)
7    13.73% (opponents play 22+,AT+,A9s,KQ,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s or less)
6    15.83%
5    18.70%
4    22.78%
3    29.16%
2    40.37%
1    64.44%

If you have 30% equity when called (and all bets on and after flop break even), steal must succeed only 3.333% of the time.

Raise with hand that has 30% equity if remaining opponents call this often or less:
Hand % of opponents needed given X players remaining:

8    34.64%
7    38.49%
6    43.27%
5    49.35%
4    57.27%
3    67.82%
2    81.74%
1    96.67%

If you have 33% equity and up you can raise with any two assuming you won't get raised and you won't get called by multiple opponents.

It shouldn't be that uncommon for a hand vs opponent's defending range to be around 30% equity if you take away some of the worst starting hands.

Of course, since opponents sometimes will raise you rather than call, you might argue that your steals need to succeed more often. But that isn't necessarily the case and here's why.... If opponent raises 6.25 big blinds, you only give up 2.5 every now and then but as long as you could come up with a hand to 4bet and take it down 18% of the time you could still break even when you are reraised. You might not quite that often if you are opening with a wide range, but it shouldn't be that far off. Since you will also often get the pot odds to call and implied odds to lose less than 2.5, you can 4bet even less often and be okay, but that assumes effective stacks aren't large enough to 5bet, or else the opponent can turn that on it's head and shove to gain back his edge. You also may be able to still continue in the hand often enough in some cases to profit or break even with a postflop advantage.

If you are stealing and finding yourself able to accumulate chips gradually this way, you will likely need to cbet and then just be done with the hand a large percentage of the time when your opponent calls your cbet. If you do this, you will have low varience chip accumulation and you can pass up any all ins and theoretically still win the tournament. Mix that in with raising close to the optimal hand range with the antes which is actually fairly liberally, plus frequent cbetting while also knowing when to scale back and tighten up and you stand an excellent chance of accumulating a lot of chips at lower risk.

In theory if you can win an average of 3 times what's in the pot at low variance per rotation, you can win a tournament without ever being all in and you can maintain your big blinds in most structures.

In reality, you probably won't have quite that big of an edge and even if you do there will be enough variance where you will get short enough that you will have to be all in a few times. Nevertheless, if you can pass up race situations and accumulate chips for quite a long time and secure survival to stages in the tournament where steals are worth more, you should.

It's actually mathematically correct to pass up race situations for your entire stack even ignoring opportunity costs because opponents bennefit from every confrontation and you can literally make money by folding as a result of other people taking race situations when you are close enough to the bubble. This is much more prominent in THEORY the closer you get to the bubble. There are a lot of really odd things that happens as a result of this theory which requires a counter adjustment in my opinion that we will get to later.

In practice those with a skill edge able to accumulate chips actually have far more incentive to avoid the flips EARLY because of the opportunity cost to be able to build up a lot of chips over the course of the tournament.

On the opposite side of the spectrum is "utility" which states that the more chips you have, the greater edge you tend to have and the longer you can prolong variance that risks your tournament life. Because opponents are SUPPOSED to (in theory) avoid players with larger stacks, that creates an inherent advantage for having more chips that should according to this theory gain more respect as the opponents are supposed to avoid coinflips with those that can knock them out or significantly reduce their stack. Opponents should be less likely to bluff you knowing you can knock them out, less likely to try to force a race onto you, and you get the implied odds to see more flops, float more flops, double barrel without a huge hit if it fails and as a result, you can gain more chips per rotation.

But not so fast, the small stack still has the ability to be all in and double called with no individual fold equity while the others potentially can bet out a hand to force drawing hands that would have hit out. Or if you shove and someone calls and opponent tries to isolate, you might be tripling up and then some with only a single opponent to fade. Your equity goes up slightly as the short stack in some situations as you have the advantage of the last one in to shove. You certainly can make all in semibluffs on the flop for a slight overbet where your opponents cannot except vs shorter stacks like yourself when there are no other opponents in the hand. Additionally, opponents aren't worried about busting out in the earlier stages so much. It's when they invested some time into the tournament where this is prominent. Also if everyone else is shorter and moving all in preflop, there's not as much of an edge in having more chips as you might think, particularly when opponents don't understand or utilize ICM and thus don't respect your chip stack.

Even if you will have a pretty good probability of eventually having to take a coinflip, you still should often pass because you can get into plenty of coinflips later after you accumulate a lot more chips. THEN the utility can come into place later on when opponents are also scared of money bubble and final table bubble.

Plus there are plenty of unexploitable spots where you can shove and keep up with the blinds and have a low probability of being knocked out since opponents have to call AND win. They may call with a worse hand if they call too loosely or not call often enough if they call too tightly such that your odds of surviving an all in shove may be better than 50% even if when you do get called, you get called with the worst of it. Even multiple shoves all in will often give you a better chance of making money, and this is even more true when the blinds have risen.

PLUS if you establish a really tight image, and win a double up with a monster hand, you stand a greater chance of not getting called in the future when the blinds are perhap twice as large as they might be now which leads to a lot more profit as a result of that image following showing them a hand.

So tournaments are about chip accumulation and saying "no thanks" when you have a small edge especially early for all your chips or on the money bubble. There is a difference between a small edge and a slight favorite in a coinflip. If your pot odds are extremely large, you may have an edge while only being 40% to win. Take a straightflush draw where you actually move all in. Opponents will fold often enough to provide you with pretty good equity and you probably get the pot odds to call an all in for 2x pot or less, so shoving for that amount or less is a pretty big edge.

You can see Dutch Boyd put this concept to work in his twitch stream.

Squeeze play all in for 5x pot 30%

Rather than continue onto 40% raiser and 40% caller and continue through, I may not have time to do much more anytime soon so I'm going to skip to 30% raiser and 30% caller for 5x the pot.
So if opponent raises 3x and opponent calls there is 7.5 in the pot without antes and maybe 8.5 with antes. A 5x shove will be 37.5 big blinds or 42.5x big blinds. That's a pretty significant move and as a result, opponents should be able to tighten their calling ranges, and because we are risking so much, we likely will have to tighten our shoving ranges.

So 30% raiser will raise:
22+, A9+,KT+,QT+,JT,T9,98,87,76,65,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
Let's first start out with them calling 50% of the range like last time.
33+,A9+,KQ,A6s+,KTs+,QJs
We now have to be 40.74% to win for the push to be profitable.
66+,A9o+,A5s+,KTs+,QJs
You win 0.91795x the pot per shove but you only get to shove 11.9% of hands so that's .1082x pots per situation you're dealt a hand which is probably about .8 big blinds.

We'll have to try tightening the calling range and widening it to see. I suspect tighter is better since we have more chips.
Tighten it to:
66+AT+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs
Opponent is calling 36.4% of the time each which translates into you having a 60% chance of being called rather than 75%.
We need to only win just over 36.90% of the time for the 5x squeeze to be a good call because opponents folds more often. A weird thing happens in that KJo becomes profitable to shove because KQ is no longer in opponent's range so it's not easily dominated
Shove range vs this calling range: 77+,AT+,KJ+,A8s+,K9s+,QJs
You win  .081224 per situation so this is definitely a better decision for your opponent to reduce your shoving range by tightening it up.

I don't think too much tighter is better but I don't know.
For now until I have the time to do more work I will just say that the squeeze play for 5x pot requires opponents to be tighter. If opponents each play 30% of hands and there is a raise and a call
Push with 77+,AT+,KJ+,A8s+,K9s+,QJs
vs calling range of 66+AT+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs

If I had to guess I would say that given that one out of many opponents raised and called, even if individually they are looser suggests a slightly better range of hand. Players are more likely to have folded low cards and less likely to have folded high cards and since high cards ar preferable, and out of 9 opponents one is a lot more likely to hold a strong hand that you may want to err on the tighter side of both the call and shove, particularly without more information about whether a tighter opponent can force a shoving strategy to make less.

At what point is shoving with 27o profitable? Opponents would have to tighten up to only calling with 99+,AK,AQs and sometimes fold AQo for them to be tight enough to allow pushing with any two. That's pretty insane and makes me wonder if the caller should play tighter than the above strategy which would force the shover to push less often. But the work will have to be done some other time to approximate the 5x the pot squeeze shove.

Max Patience 2.0 Raise + Call All In

Our Max Patience 2.0 strategy upgraded from here looks to identify the point in which you have around a 50% chance of finding an equal or better hand than those listed given X hands left. It was adjusted for probability that hand is best by position when it folds to you. Folding a better hand is usually not advised. Calling off all your chips with worse certainly may be okay, but just be aware that you are giving up opportunity cost of finding a better spot. Since a double up will rarely double the number of "hands dealt" to you before the next all in, you are giving up more opportunity by calling than folding on a 50/50 or even a 55/45.

If a 4bet represents an all in, you only want to 3bet such that you cannot be exploited by a 4bet and as such you might only 3bet 2.5-4 times the frequency of hands that you will call all in with. If a 3bet is an all in you want your opening range when folded to to be only 2.5-4 times the frequency of that which you call.

A Max Patience strategy has the most value towards the late stages of a tournament where opponents are aggressively gunning for the win and are likely to bust themselves and make you money by just surviving. You can't afford to really be any more of a nit than this except in rare circumstances or super satellite bubbles so I consider this the baseline for the tightest possible strategy and you should probably not consider playing any tighter in most tournament situations. Of course, if you are confident you are beat don't obsess over the chart. The chart tries to give you blind values of waiting for the best possible spot but given preflop action one particular spot my actually be much less profitable so you shouldn't mindlessly follow this chart ever, either.

If you are looking to minimize chip volatility a max patience strategy isn't bad. Particularly if you map out the blind structure and determine that you should be able to survive to 5 players left without confrontation just by folding or think you only need one more double up to deep final table or win it. Even so, you should still be willing to raise about 3 times as often as you'd call all in with and in some cases 3bet 3 times as often and open 6 times as often if a 4bet is an al in shove. (Keep in mind you can shove with a wider range than you can call with). This will still give you the ability to call all in (or push) often enough to not really be exploited unless your chips are really shallow, and certainly shove often enough where opponents fold to make up for the times you've folded if you have a deep enough stack to 4bet shove. It will also keep you active enough to prolong your number of hands or letting opponents see that you can fold to a shove without being exploitable.

First, let's review the max patience call all in strategy where you are certain you get called (or calling an all in) and want to wait for the best hand that you have a 50% chance of getting or better. Typically you should push with at least 50% more hands than you call, but if opponent will always call you that number should decline closer to the call all in hand range.

Call off max patience charts
Under 10 hands left
8 (1 hand left before blind): 22+,A2+,KT+,K6s+,QT+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s
7 (2 hands left): 22+,A7+,A2s+,KJ+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs
6 (3 hands left): 33+,A9+,A4s+,KQ,KTs+,QJs
5 (4 hands left): 33+,AT+,A4s+,KQ,KTs+,QJs
4 (5 hands left): 33+,AT+,A4s+,KQ,KTs+,QJs
3 (6 hands left): 22+,A9+,A2s+,KJ+,KTs+,QJs
2 (7 hands left): 22+,A5+,A2s+,KT+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs
1 (8 hands left): 22+,A4+,A2s+,KT+,K7s+,QJ,Q9s+,JTs
1 (9 hands left): 22+,A5+,A2s+,KT+,K8s+,QJ,Q9s+,JTs

    Just over 10 hands left
8 players left to act (utg 9 handed):TT+,AK
7 players left 99+,AK,AQs
6 players left: 99+, AQ+
5 players: 99+, AQ+
4 players: 77+, AQ+, AJs, KQs
3: 55+, AJ+, ATs+, KJs+
2 (button):33+, A5s+, Kts+, qjs+,AT+, KQ
1 (small blind): 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s JTs, A4+, KT+, QJ

     20 hands left:
8: JJ+
7: JJ+, AKs
6:TT+, AKs
5:TT+, AKs
4: TT+, AK
3:88+, AQs+, AK
2:88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AQ+

     30 hands left
8: QQ+
7: QQ+
6: JJ+
5: JJ+
4: JJ+, AQs+
3: TT+,AK
2: TT+, AQ+
1: 55+,A9s+, KJs+ AJ+, QJs,

     50 hands left
8:KK+
7:KK+
6:KK+
5:KK+
4:QQ+
3:JJ+,AKs
2:TT+,AK
1:99+,AJs+,AQ+

    60 hands left
8    AA
7    KK+
6    KK+
5    KK+
4    QQ+
3    QQ+,Aks
2    JJ+,Aks
1    99+,AK,Aqs

    70 hands left
8    AA
7    AA
6    KK+
5    KK+
4    KK+
3    QQ+
2    JJ+,Aks
1    99+,AK


     80 hands left
8    AA
7    AA
6    KK+
5    KK+
4    KK+
3    QQ+
2    JJ+,Aks
1    TT+,AK

     100 hands left
8    AA
7    AA
6    AA
5    AA
4    KK+
3    KK+
2    QQ+
1    TT+,Aks

I would not wait to raise with a hand if you have some stacks. Even if opponent shoves you off of it, you have to make sure opponents aren't aware of how tight you are and let them prove you'll get action when you have a hand. So you need to raise more often. You also want to at least give yourself a chance at buying more time to wait for a hand. So raise 3 times the hands you would call a shove with.

3bet max patience strategy where 4bet is all in shove or opening raise max patience where 3bet is all in shove:

Less than 30 hands left: Consider using push/fold charts or tightened modified version of them until you buy more time or double the call all in max patience charts so that you push with twice the range you call with.

    30 hands left   
8    99+,AK   
7    99+,AK   
6    99+,AQ+   
5    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KQs   
4    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QJs+   
3    66+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
2    44+,AT+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s   
1    22+,A4+,KT+,QJ,JT,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T9s+,98s,87s   
    40 hands left   
8    TT+,Aks   
7    TT+,Aks   
6    99+,AK   
5    99+,AK   
4    99+,AQ+   
3    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QJs+   
2    66+,AJ+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
1    22+,A9+,A3s+,KJ+,K9s+,QJ,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,   
    50 hands left   
8    JJ+,Aks   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    TT+,Aks   
5    TT+,Aks   
4    99+,AK   
3    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KQs   
2    88+,AQ+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
1    33+,AT+,KJ+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s   
    60 hands left   
8    JJ+,Aks   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    JJ+,Aks   
5    TT+,Aks   
4    99+,AK   
3    99+,AQ+   
2    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QJs+   
1    44+,AT+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s   
    70 hands left   
8    JJ+,Aks   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    JJ+,Aks   
5    JJ+,Aks   
4    TT+,Aks   
3    99+,AK   
2    99+,AQ+,Ats+,KQs   
1    55+,AJ+,KQ,A9s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s   
    80 hands left   
8    KK+   
7    JJ+,Aks   
6    JJ+,Aks   
5    JJ+,Aks   
4    TT+,Aks   
3    TT+,Aks   
2    99+,AQ+   
1    66+,AJ+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs   
    100 hands left   
8    KK+   
7    KK+   
6    KK+   
5    JJ+,Aks   
4    JJ+,Aks   
3    TT+,Aks   
2    99+,AK   
1    88+,AQ+,Ats+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs

The Nutball Tournament System - Preflop 1

Based upon the work on optimal preflop strategies I have begun reworking GTO to account for implied/reverse implied odds with a fairly deep stack. This will introduce the preflop strategy of the "nutball tournament system". I also will try to simply the 3bet and 4bet rather than having separate strategies depending on where the raiser came from.

In reality the weak kicker high card hands are just as likely to win a bluff, but not very likely to get to showdown when high card wins. They also can lose a lot of value when they hit their hand, and can never really win a big pot without being at risk that their hand is second best. As such, in no limit hold em with deeper stacks, we much rather prefer a more aggressive approach with connected and suited cards with drawing potential rather than just looking at the hand with the most theoretical equity when it's checked to river.

The separator || signals where the hands that theoretically have value over an approximately optimal 3bet vs those that are "bluff" raises. The hands before represent "value" the hands after represent "bluffs". This is done so you know how to adapt vs different opponents.

If opponents calls or raises more than 50% of the time you raise, some of the bluff raises should disappear, but a couple more hands may have value vs a caller or raiser. If the opponent folds too often, you can add some bluff raises.  It isn't that some of those hands won't be  best now half the time, but it is that when good opponent gives you action he probably has those "bluff" hands beat or at least is a coinflip vs them and unless you really hit the flop it's hard to know where you are at.

No Antes:
8: JJ+,AK || 77-TT A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,[67s-KQs]
7: JJ+,AK,Aqs || 55-TT, A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,[67s-KQs]
6: JJ+,AQ+ || 33-TT, A4s+,KTs+,QTs+,[45s-KQs]
5: TT+,AQ+ || 22+,A4s+,K9s+,Q9s, [45s-KQs]
4: 99+,AQ+,AJs,KQs || 22-88, A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+, [64s-J9s]+,45s
3: 88+,AJ+,ATs,KQs || 22-77, KQ, A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+, [64s-J9s]+,45s
2: 66+,AT+,KQ,A9s,KJs+ || 22-77, [78-QJ], A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+, [53s-J9s]+
1: 44+,A7+,KT+,QJ,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+ || 22,33,A2-A6,k2-K9,Q8-QT,J7+,T7+,97+,[45o-87o], Q2s+,J7s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,54s,43s


3bets
Giving you a good idea of how to balance your ranges with help from Ed Miller in the book "the course" I came up with a few tweaks and the following ranges.

When facing tight raise
If you have QQ: if left card is black, 3bet, if left card is red, flat.
Otherwise:
3bet: AA,KK,[QQ],A5s,{T8s}
flat: 22-JJ,[QQ],AK,Ats+,Kts+,Qts+,{JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s}
{only flat the suited connectors in position and only raise T8s in position}
When facing loose raise
3bet: QQ+,AK,A2s-A5s,{T9s,87s}
flat: 22-JJ,AQ,A6s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,{98s,76s}
{in position only, otherwise fold}

4bets:
When Facing a 3bet:
4bet:QQ+,AK+,AQs, A5s,T8s
flat:88-TT,[QQ],AQ,AJs,{AJo,ATs,KQs}

(play this way or tighter without antes but obviously it is more opponent dependent)
You may have implied odds to flat with mid pairs too, plus a slight chance of seeing a showdown or going with a few really good flops like having an overpair and some back door outs to straight or flush.
I may be slightly too aggressive with not having AJ in middle or early position. But if you bet bluff or raise bluff lots of flops or set up bluffs on turn by checking, calling (floating), or minraising, suited connectors will very frequently have backdoor draws and gutshots or better which allows you to do well in games where it is uncommon to see a lot of showdowns anyways and top pair less than top kicker is often not good anyways.
As you get closer to shallow stack, the headsup hands like weaker aces and kings and queens become more powerful and the suited connectors and small pairs lose value.

Antes:
8: TT+,AQ+,Ajs | 22-88, A9s+,[45s-KQs]
7: TT+,AJ+,Ats+,KQs | 22-88, {A9s-J9s}+,[45s-KQs]
6: 88+,AJ+,Ats+,KQs | 22-88, A4s+,{A9s-J9s}+,[45s-KQs]
5: 77+,AT+,KQ,A7s+,KTs+ | 22+,[KQo-T9o],A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,[64s-J9s]+,54s
4: 77+,A8+,KT+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs |22+,[45o-KQo],K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,[53s-J9s]+,43s
3: 66+,A8+,KT+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+ |22+,[45o-KQo],K4s+,Q8s+,J8s+,[53s-J9s]+,43s
2: 22+,A2+,k2+,Q2+,J5+,T7+,97+,86+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s,43s
1: A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T5+,96+,85+,75+,64+,54,T2s+,93s+,84s+,74s+,63s+,53s+,43s

3bet or flat:
when facing tight raise
3bet: QQ+,AK,A2s-A5s,T9s,87s
flat: 22-JJ,AQ,A6s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,76s,65s,54s
when facing loose raise
3bet: TT+,AQ,AJs,A2s-A5s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
flat: 22-TT,AJ,KT+,QT+,JT,T9,98,87,76,65,54,A6s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s,97s,86+,75s

When Facing a 3bet you might construct some balance like this as the "default" range with no information.
4bet:QQ-KK,[AA] AK+,AQs, A5s,T8s
flat:88-TT,[AA] AJ-AQ,ATs,KQs.
(or looser, but obviously this is more opponent dependent)


Theoretically the wider your raising range the more you should defend by calling or 4betting, but there's some give and take. If opponents are letting you rob them preflop without reraising you a lot, let them "exploit you". Unless it becomes a regular pattern no big deal, and even if it does you can simply tighten up your raise range AND widen your 4bet range.

If left ace is any card but a spade 4bet, if it's a spade flat call. That's just to get you an idea, but facing bets is more about situations.

There are several considerations when facing a 3bet. I really hate it because everything is wrong unless you have a lot of information on your opponent or a monster hand. Even with information it's easy to be mislead intentionally by a crafty opponent who uses his image to exploit.
So that's why 3betting can be pretty profitable and why facing it is challenging.
You can inflate the pot with a superior holding to a loose opponent or take it down preflop with a good chance of taking it down after the flop since opponents will miss the flop a lot if premium pairs aren't a large percentage of your opponent's holdings to begin with.
But if that were the case and he were tight preflop, he wouldn't be a good candidate to 3bet without a much stronger hand.

Shovebot Charts

I'm looking at the charts at http://pushfoldcharts.com/ and wanted to record them here just in case the site shuts down.

10 Big Blinds Left
Players	With Antes	Without Antes
8	33+ A8s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs T9s	99+ ATs+ A5s AJo+ KTs+ QTs+
7	22+ A8s+ A5s ATo+ K9s+ KQo Q9s+ J9s+ T9s	88+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs
6	22+ A8s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s	44+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs
5	22+ A2s+ A9o+ K8s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s	22+ A8s+ A5s ATo+ K9s+ KQo Q9s+ J9s+ T9s
4	22+ A2s+ A5o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s	22+ A7s+ A5s-A3s ATo+ K8s+ KJo+ Q8s+ QJo J8s+ T8s+ 98s
3	22+ Ax+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s	22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
2	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K8o+ Q6s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 65s	22+ Ax+ K5s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 97s+ 87s 76s
sb	22+ Qx+ J2s+ J6o+ T2s+ T7o+ 94s+ 97o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 63s+ 53s+ 43s	22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J3s+ J8o+ T4s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+

8 Big Blinds Left
Players	With Antes	Without Antes
8	22+ A8s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s	55+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs
7	22+ A3s+ A9o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s	33+ A8s+ A5s-A4s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs
6	22+ A2s+ A8o+ K9s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ T8s+ 98s	22+ A8s+ A5s ATo+ K9s+ KQo Q9s+ J9s+ T9s
5	22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s	22+ A7s+ A5s-A3s ATo+ K8s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s
4	22+ Ax+ K6s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s	22+ A2s+ A8o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s
3	22+ Ax+ K3s+ K9o+ Q6s+ QTo+ J7s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 86s+ 76s 65s	22+ Ax+ K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
2	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q4s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 76s 65s	22+ Ax+ K4s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 86s+ 76s 65s
sb	22+ Jx+ T2s+ T4o+ 92s+ 96o+ 83s+ 86o+ 73s+ 75o+ 63s+ 65o 53s+ 43s	22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J7o+ T4s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+

6 Big Blinds Left
Players	With Antes	Without Antes
8	22+ A3s+ A9o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s	22+ A9s+ A5s ATo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs T9s
7	22+ A2s+ A8o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T8s+ 98s	22+ A8s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s
6	22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ T8s+ 98s 87s	22+ A3s+ A9o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s
5	22+ A2s+ A3o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s	22+ A2s+ A8o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T8s+ 98s
4	22+ Ax+ K5s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 97s+ 87s 76s	22+ A2s+ A4o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
3	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K7o+ Q6s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s	22+ Ax+ K6s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 97s+ 87s
2	22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J6s+ J8o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 86s+ 76s	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K7o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 86s+ 76s 65s
sb	22+ Tx+ 92s+ 94o+ 82s+ 85o+ 73s+ 75o+ 62s+ 65o 52s+ 54o 43s	22+ Qx+ J2s+ J4o+ T2s+ T6o+ 93s+ 96o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 63s+ 53s+ 43s

4 Big Blinds Left
Players	With Antes	Without Antes
8	22+ A2s+ A8o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ T9s	22+ A4s+ A9o+ K9s+ KJo+ QTs+ JTs T9s
7	22+ A2s+ A7o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s	22+ A2s+ A8o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s
6	22+ A2s+ A5o+ K5s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+	22+ A2s+ A7o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s
5	22+ A2s+ A3o+ K4s+ K9o+ Q6s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s	22+ A2s+ A4o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s
4	22+ Ax+ K3s+ K8o+ Q6s+ Q9o+ J8s+ J9o+ T8s+ 98s	22+ Ax+ K6s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ T9s
3	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q4s+ Q8o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 87s	22+ Ax+ K4s+ K8o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T9s 98s
2	22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q6o+ J4s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 97s+ 87s	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q6s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s
sb	22+ 9x+ 82s+ 83o+ 72s+ 74o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 54o 43s	22+ Jx+ T2s+ T3o+ 92s+ 95o+ 84s+ 85o+ 74s+ 75o+ 64s+ 53s+

2 Big Blinds Left

Players	With Antes	Without Antes
8	33+ A2s+ A4o+ K2s+ K7o+ Q4s+ Q8o+ J6s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 86s+ 76s	44+ A3s+ A9o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+
7	33+ A2s+ A4o+ K2s+ K7o+ Q4s+ Q8o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 97s+ 87s 76s	55+ A2s+ A9o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+
6	33+ A2s+ A3o+ K2s+ K6o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J6s+ J8o+ T6s+ T9o 97s+ 86s+ 76s	44+ A2s+ A7o+ K5s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s
5	33+ A2s+ A3o+ K2s+ K6o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 97s+ 86s+ 76s	44+ A2s+ A7o+ K6s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s
4	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J3s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 86s+ 76s 65s	33+ A2s+ A3o+ K3s+ K8o+ Q6s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s
3	22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q2s+ Q6o+ J4s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 86s+ 76s	44+ A2s+ A3o+ K3s+ K7o+ Q7s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T8s+
2	22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q3o+ J2s+ J5o+ T2s+ T6o+ 94s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 75s+ 64s+ 54s	33+ Ax+ K2s+ K6o+ Q5s+ Q8o+ J8s+ J9o+ T8s+ 98s
sb	Any two	22+ 8x+ 72s+ 73o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 53o+ 42s+

Headsup charts:

BB		Push
16		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K7o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J6s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 65s 54s
15		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K6o+ Q4s+ Q9o+ J6s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s
14		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q4s+ Q9o+ J5s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 87o 75s+ 64s+ 54s
13		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s
12		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 87o 75s+ 64s+ 54s
11		22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J4s+ J8o+ T5s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 87o 74s+ 64s+ 53s+
10		22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J3s+ J8o+ T5s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 64s+ 53s+
9		22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J8o+ T5s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 64s+ 53s+
8		22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q4o+ J2s+ J7o+ T4s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 64s+ 53s+
7		22+ Qx+ J2s+ J6o+ T3s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 84s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+ 43s
6		22+ Qx+ J2s+ J4o+ T2s+ T6o+ 94s+ 97o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+
5		22+ Jx+ T2s+ T5o+ 93s+ 96o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+
4		22+ Jx+ T2s+ T3o+ 92s+ 95o+ 83s+ 85o+ 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+
3		22+ Tx+ 92s+ 93o+ 82s+ 84o+ 73s+ 75o+ 63s+ 65o 53s+
2		22+ 8x+ 72s+ 73o+ 62s+ 63o+ 52s+ 53o+ 42s+ 32s
1.5		22+ 5x+ 42s+ 43o 32s
BB		Call
16		33+ A2s+ A3o+ K8s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs
15		33+ Ax+ K7s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs
14		22+ Ax+ K6s+ K8o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs
13		22+ Ax+ K5s+ K8o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo
12		22+ Ax+ K4s+ K8o+ Q8s+ Q9o+ J9s+ JTo
11		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K6o+ Q7s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T9s
10		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K6o+ Q6s+ Q8o+ J8s+ J9o+ T9s
9		22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q4s+ Q8o+ J7s+ J9o+ T8s+ T9o 98s
8		22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J6s+ J8o+ T7s+ T9o 98s
7		22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J5s+ J8o+ T7s+ T8o+ 97s+
6		22+ Qx+ J2s+ J6o+ T5s+ T7o+ 96s+ 98o 86s+
5		22+ Qx+ J2s+ J3o+ T2s+ T6o+ 94s+ 96o+ 85s+ 87o 75s+ 65s
4		22+ Tx+ 92s+ 95o+ 82s+ 85o+ 73s+ 75o+ 63s+ 65o 53s+ 43s
3		22+ 8x+ 72s+ 73o+ 62s+ 63o+ 5x+ 42s+ 43o 32s
2		Any Two
1.5		Any Two

The book "Kill Everyone" has some good charts I will also put up.
17CSI (25.5 BBs or 38BBs with antes) play normal poker, obey rule of 5% and 10% (or 3% and 6%) you can speculate on small pairs if it costs you less than 5%, never speculate if it costs more than 10% and anywhere between is judgement. For suited aces and connectors 3% of stack you can speculate, 6% you can't and anywhere between is judgement.
12-17CSI(18-25.5BBs OR 27-38BBs antes) -Raise to steal blinds more frequently, don't limp with SCs and pairs.
7-12 CSI (10.5-18BBs OR 15.75-27BBs with antes)
never limp SCs and pairs, raise a lot
2-7 CSI (3-10.5BBs or 4.45-15.75 w antes) shove or fold (see charts)

I will take these charts down upon request.

 

 

 

Tournaments: When "Optimal play" is suboptimal

Let's imagine that there is a field that plays "shovebot" poker. They adjust slightly against players that seem like obvious nits by calling slightly less often than equilibrium and against seemingly obvious super agro players, but they mostly shove the "unexploitable strategy". How do you get an edge?
If you are a short stack, do you just play "shovebot" yourself and hope a run of good cards or bad run causes opponents to make calling mistakes?

Probably not. If you play like everyone else, you won't gain a large enough edge to overcome the rake.

In my opinion, instead you should play ultra nitty and just shove with much a stronger range of hands initially. In order for this to work, opponents have to adjust to what they think they see, and they have to take awhile before they draw any conclusions about your play. This is pretty common in my opinion. Poker players are always trying to find what they think is probably a slight edge.

As a result, opponents will expect you to widen up your ranges as you get shorter, and they are more willing to call too lightly if you are tight. They probably adjust at least slightly from the shovebot/callbot strategies, but not enough to compensate for just how nitty you will be initially. They also may very well be shoving a larger percentage of the time because you are shortstack so you have a good chance to get action. You certainly are giving up some value by playing this way, but there's a reason for that.

First of all, because of elevated blinds, you can actually play an unprofitable strategy and break even or show a slight profit. For example, if you have 10 big blinds with no increases in blind structure, you expect to blind down from $100/$200 blinds in a cashgame to 6 big blinds and have an average of 74% to double up plus a blind and a half, you will expect to only get back to 9.99 big blinds in expected value. You are effectively spinning your wheels.

BUT, if blinds go up 20% your $2000 blinds down to $1200 may see blinds rise to $120/$240 and now if you get it all in at $1200, your double up plus blinds and antes will get your EV such that you should on average get back to $2042.4 instead of $1998. Because the blinds will actually cost you a bit more, this may not seem like much, but they also may rise more than once to where it is profitbale again. An unprofitably weak/tight strategy becomes marginally profitable. Additionally, an all in with AK,AA,KK,QQ, type of hands are now more likely to get 2 callers which will give you added equity. Finally, as you become shorter stacked relative o the blinds MORE hands become profitable to shove with since you are getting a good price to call and a good price to shove even with no chance opponent folds when you know they have the better hand.

So this provides an interesting concept. Let's say you have an opportunity to take a 2:1 payout on a coinflip with $100. If you win, you get $300 from which to play up to $199 on a 3:1 payout on a coinflip. IF you lose, you miss out on the shot to take the 3:1 coinflip at all. Alternatively, let's say you can pass up the $100 risk in order to ensure 100% chance of $100 on a 3:1 coinflip. Which should you do? If it is that black and white and there are no future implications after that, you should actually pass on the first coinflip.  But it's not that black and white.

Regardless, it's worth thinking about. I think overall, if you understand that you can actually play an "overly tight" strategy that is expected to lose money, and gain money because of the increasing stakes you can also think about the implications AFTERWARDS.

Even if you are even tighter to where even with the increasing blinds and antes you don't expect to get back to even, you will have a great shot to double up if you get your money in with a monster hand. Even if you get called twice, you will have a great shot to triple up.

More importantly, you will have a resulting nitty image that you can exploit at higher blind levels. It won't take nearly as many additional steals since the blinds will rise before you can make up for the lost equity from being "too tight". Even if you just slightly widen your steal range from equilibrium, your opponents SHOULD probably tighten up significantly enough to where it may even be profitable for awhile to move in with any two. But you don't want to make it too obvious that you are doing that.

Nevertheless, if you can get away with more steals following a double up, you can gain a greater edge than just playing "shovebot poker".

"shovebot poker" is not based upon your probability of being able to get a better hand in the future, but instead basically is based upon where you are break even or have marginal edge if opponent plays perfectly against that strategy, and have an edge to the degree by which opponent deviates from. Well there is lost opportunity cost of being able to find a more profitable spot in the future, even though that is a double edged sword. Shoving more gets more chips which buys more time a large percentage of the time but when you are called your odds of being knocked out are good which causes you to pass up both future profitable shoving opportunities as well as hands that may provide a much better chance to double up and the resulting image that buys you a license to steal from playing tighter.

I don't often like to play supper nitty, but I love to play that way before the ante stages or just into the ante stages if you are short stacked and you don't have enough chips or a tight enough image to get respect yet.

I think the ante stages is the most profitable spot in tournaments... You get 1:1 on steal attempts, 2:1 on in position calls when blinds fold, good steal opportunities on opponents who know this can call a lot more, around 3:1 on call from the blinds and even your 3bets have better odds on steal attempts even when you get called on 3bets there is enough money in the pot where you are earning money even if you know you are behind where it's still better than folding.

Opponents tend not to adjust optimally to this. Those playing lots of hands benefit at the expense of those that don't. You can either have a ton of chips or a tight image, but you cannot afford to have neither in my opinion at the ante stages. There simply isn't much of an edge in shovebot poker, too many people at least intuitively play closely to this style when they're short stack if they are not following the charts close to exactly. It's not terrible to try it, get on a run and then hopefully get a lot of chips, but I prefer to play really tight, hope to get my money in good, get a really tight image, and then use that tight image to steal when blinds are higher, antes are in, and I have a lot more information about my opponent then they will have about the style I'm prepared to play.

The slower the structure, the more patient I think you can be since the probability that you pick up a hand before blinding down to 60% of your stack is much larger, and the players that do play shovebot poker are more likely than not to give you action if they act before you do. However, I may still take advantage of my image and shove on the button after awhile. I can't wait forever without getting some respect. So I may shove with any ace on the button like everyone else, but I don't love to do it.

Regardless, you can really milk a shortstack by being patient and you will be surprised just how quickly you can get back in it and use that tight image almost immediately afterwards to power the table a little. Doing so successfully may quickly within just a few rotations of the blinds get you from what was 6-8 big blinds at the levels to 25 big blinds and higher. Of course the blinds will go up maybe 50% by then so you may still become short, but a few extra shoves and a slightly tighter calling range by your opponent is enough to buy enough extra chips to where you have bought yourself just as much time, if not more than if you played the full pushbot chart, and you do so with a much better chance of survival and you can basically triple up while only being called all in once by a single opponent with far the best of it.

Well, you may have to go back to nitty again if blinds rise faster than you can keep up with them, which may happen if you get too short or if structure is too fast. If you have played a lot of hands by then, your opponents are probably starting to change their opinion of you. This is perfect to increase your chance of getting action and once again get them to underestimate the strength of your hand.

If you saw opponent play about 20% of hands, you might incorrectly conclude their strength of hand is that range. But what if they played 10%, then 30% and now are back to 10%? By the time you have enough information to approximate their range, they could have easily switched gears. What about 5% than 35%? It's hard to distinguish a good run and bad run of cards from playing loose and then tight...

But if you showdown a good hand for the second time all in, now you can play even wider than equilibrium initially, and then closer to equilibrium rather than playing tight again when you get short and let opponent try to make false inferences about how you adjust to stack sizes.

If you happen to play at a slow enough structure, OR pick enough good spots in larger than unopened pots, or you 4bet light a light 3better, or you double up twice in a short enough period of time, or if you get a few showdowns in some pots, you will end up with more than 30 big blinds and NOW you can play more actively, and do a lot less minraising and more 2.5x-3x, and a lot less shoving and more flat calling.

Eventually you can go full nutball and try to run over the entire table. But short of shoving way too much and then getting lucky to win when you get called, you probably aren't going to get a lot of chips by the shovebot method and you aren't going to have that big of an edge. Maybe a guaranteed edge is worth something and enough people speculate on concepts like this that may not be correct that it's best to play shovebot poker. I don't know.

What I do know is that you need to find an edge somewhere. And it can't be some minor, wimpy edge or you are better off in cash games. Certainly there is an edge over players that don't even know this concept and are as tight as your image WITHOUT actually loosening up ever to exploit their image. Certainly there is an edge over people that take the opposite extreme and go buck wild with shoving or calling too widely. I believe that some edge may come from live reads even if you play close to the shovebot poker because you can shove wider when you opponents show weakness and shove tighter when.

But online I think the largest edge comes from the ante stages with an average stack or better and an average image or tighter from opponents that don't correctly adjust when the structure allows for lots of play. You get 1:1 on steal attempts, 2:1 on calls from button when blinds fold, 3:1 from calls in the blinds, good odds on resteal, 3betting light can give your opponent good pot odds with a 2.5x reraise and they still will often fold since it is likely to be a pot that could be for their entire stack, squeezing optimally is something that can be calculated and handled with more precision than most would think about.

The next largest edge comes from using your image to steal far more liberally to get even just a few extra steals when everyone is short stack and the blinds are much higher than anyone else can get away with stealing. Another edge comes from exploiting a large chipstack to put fear equity on opponents, particularly near the bubble and in the money.

Some edge comes from punishing the limpers BEFORE the ante stages and playing tighter than opponents even earlier on since the pot odds aren't as good and they tend to get a little carried away with top pair with very deep stacks in those stages. I also tend to think throughout the tournament there is a larger edge after the flop than preflop and an edge that favors aggression throughout the tournament. I think you may be able to get a small edge by limping in where opponents have a good resteal stack and instead shoving yourself to raises or folding, and very occasionally calling. I also think checking enough dry flops with position can induce bets when your range is ahead of opponents which can allow you to extract value when you have a hand, and float the turn or raise the turn without a hand as well.

Some edge comes from even a "boom or bust" mentality at the right time. You may end up bluffing off your tournament life and you may even take a -EV line, but if the bust out is low enough percentage, and when it works if you have many profitable future implications, it may be worth it. For example if you double up and have tight image and you start raising 4 times in a row, you know opponents will 3bet light at some point, so you can 4bet really light. Or you can call and check raise a lot of flops or whatever to play back at them. More importantly if people don't play back at you that can be a very profitable advantage. If you get a few more steals as a result, it's worth a -ev decision short term for more EV+ decisions in the long run.

You may resteal an aggressive stealer when you are in the big blind more often once blinds get large enough. You may check raise the steal attempt after calling in big blinds if they always continuation bet, or check call and check raise flop if they autodouble barrel, or lead out and check raise turn if they always float flop-bet turn. aggressive plays that work often enough even if they can get you into major trouble may allow you to get away with more in the future. Perhaps you get more "walks" by restealing from big blinds liberally which allows you to maintain your stack without playing a single hand for several rotations throughout the tournament. Perhaps you get more steals by 4betting light. Perhaps this strategy backfires and you bust out but when it doesn't you do well enough to really power the table in a way that really lets you crush the game.

But overall I think I would prefer to speculate on an image play over opponents speculating on playing "suboptimal" preflop. Your edge has to come from somewhere and it has to be large enough that it's more profitable to play tournaments over cash games.

Maybe you have enough of an edge when everyone has enough chips that if you just play the shovebot strategy that you will still maybe triple or quadruple your stack a lot of the time before you go into shovebot mode and that plus a few suboptimal preflop players allows you enough of an edge that it's best not to try to speculate on these kind of ideas??

I don't know, but I personally would rather shift gears and use the table image as well as looking at my more predictable opponents to subtly exploit so they aren't aware enough of it to adjust.

Squeeze Play All In 30% raiser 30% caller

30% raiser and 30% caller seems like a very common squeeze play spot to me. It's usually about what you look for or looser, but it's hard to find too much looser of that type of action. At least somewhere between 20% and 30% is common. Whenever a raiser is loose, good players tend to call him or raise in position lighter.  The reasons someone might just call instead of 3bet is as an exploitative move. If the hand has a lot of strength vs opener's range but not a lot of strength vs the range that the player will continue with given a raise, the call may be better. Also, another reason to just call is if the opponent is exploitable after the flop, but raising will create a bloated pot which is far more likely to result in an all in, where just calling may be a better spot to gradually accumulate chips without all in showdown.

until the squeeze play is made often enough to cause either one or both of the players to adjust.

This will be very interesting to see how light opponent has to call to prevent squeeze from working with any two and how often he should call.
30% of hands represents a range such as:
22+,A3+,KT+,QT+,JT+,A2s+,K9s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s
Some people may prefer suited connectors over suited aces and suited K9,Q8 and such, but either way you're looking at not too much needing to change to represent a fairly normal raise range and positional caller maybe calling frequently because of position and the antes.

HALF this range is
33+,AT+,KQ,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s or perhaps something like 22+,A9+,KQ,A6s+,KTs+,QJs, With more hands it becomes less clear which hands opponents should call with and as you change the calling range, the pushing range chnges which changes the calling range until you go around in circles without getting anywhere, or you end up with a strategy that requires occasionally pushing with some hands but not always and occasionally calling with some hands but not always.
We will ignore this and instead just assume opponent calls with 33+,A9+,KQ,A6s+,KTs+,QJs Profitable to shove with: 44+,A2+,K8+,Q9+,J8+,T8+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T6s+,97s+,86s+,76s. That's 39.97% of hands.

You can shove with any two if opponent plays slightly tighter than 10% of hands. 
So vs hand ranges around 66+,AT+,KQ,A9s+,KJs+, you can shove with almost any two profitably.

Now you can widen or tighten the initial calling range slightly and then shove all hands profitable vs that range to see if you can get the shoving strategy to be less profitable. If so, the initial strategy is farther away from "optimal" or "equilibrium" play than the new strategy.  We are looking for the most optimal play we can find within a reasonable amount of time. I'm lazy so I'm only going to look at a few possible alternatives and not check everything between.

Let's try a tighter range first. 55+,AT+,A9s+,KQs That's 132 combinations out of 1326 total or about 9.95% of hands.Now we can push with A2+,K2+,Q2+,J3+ and we can already tell without doing any more work that opponents are making it too easy for us by tightening up and we will be able to make more from what has to be a more exploitative strategy. Equilibrium in a given situation should attempt to minimize the maximum possible profit of the advantaged side. In this case, it's an advantage to the shover.

What if we loosen up? Assume opponent calls with 22+,A8+,KJ+,A4s+,K9s+QTs+,JTs+ That's 242 out of the initial 394 opponent played or 61.42% of the hands in the range. You're much less likely to get a fold, so your hand has to have more value when you do shove. 36.5% equity needed. Although the shover can no longer shove with any two, the advantage of this for the shover is more hands have value vs the calling range.
You can shove: 33+,A4+,K9+,QT+,JT,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+.

So now what's better, shoving 33+,A4+,K9+,QT+,JT,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+
VS 22+,A8+,KJ+,A4s+,K9s+QTs+,JTs+?
Or shoving 44+,A2+,K8+,Q9+,J8+,T8+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T6s+,97s+,86s+,76s
vs calling 33+,A9+,KQ,A6s+,KTs+,QJs

First let's calculate equity per shove and then multiply it by the percentage of hands we shove.
Shoving  33+,A4+,K9+,QT+,JT,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+ yields
0.14660517x pot per situation or 1.1bb. You do this by plugging in expected value when called vs fold equity. Some time I might go into a more detailed explination of how this is solved.

Shoving 44+,A2+,K8+,Q9+,J8+,T8+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T6s+,97s+,86s+,76s yields .1354s pot per situation or 1.016x BBs

Since the goal is to identify where neither side can improve their strategy, we must recognize the calling range where we make less profits to be closer to  optimal as opponent has more effectively neutralized our edge and we must respond by adjusting the optimal shoving strategy vs that range.


Conclusion:
For a 2x pot squeeze play:
44+,A2+,K8+,Q9+,J8+,T8+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T6s+,97s+,86s+,76s is the approximate shoving equilibrium vs 30% raiser and caller (22+,A3+,KT+,QT+,JT+,A2s+,K9s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s)
and all in calling range of 33+,A9+,KQ,A6s+,KTs+,QJs
Nearly any two is profitable if 2 opponents playing 30%  of hands plays tighter than
66+,AT+,KQ,A9s+,KJs+

Again, we have more evidence that opponent calling with about half the range of hands is close enough to equilibrium vs a 2x shover that moving forward we can make this assumption for 40% and 50% hand ranges, and solve for the optimal shoving strategy vs that calling range.