Why Float The Flop? Why Bluff?

If you have 7h8h and your opponent has a range of 99+ AQ+ or K9+ on a 6h Kd 2s flop you have 17.71% equity according to propokertools.com. That means if the pot is $100 and it checks to the river, you expect to win $17.71. Folding surrenders the possibility of winning that $17. While certainly it may not be worth calling $40 to win only $17.71, lets keep in mind a few things. 1)The hand range we gave your opponent may be very generous. Just because he bet doesn't mean he isn't just making a continuation bet or attempt to bluff on a "dry flop" 2)Just because your opponent bets $40, doesn't mean there isn't a decent percentage of the time that you can still win the pot on the turn. 3)If our opponent happens to have a set or top pair, we can be reasonably confident that if we continue to show weakness by checking the turn and manage to catch a straight or flush on runner runner we have the potential to get paid off huge. While implied odds are largely theoretical and don't account for our opponent hitting a bigger draw, they are significant enough in this circumstance that certainly a handful of hands at minimum will pay off a large bet on the river... assuming we make it to the river with a monster hand. 4)If we have position, we don't have to put another cent in the pot if it doesn't add equity 5)If we only call when we have a hand on the flop our opponents can continuation bet a lot. So let's say we do call, on the turn the pot will now be $180. If our opponent is the type of player who always checks the hands he is willing to fold and does, we add $140 to our stack compared to the alternative of folding. Since we are risking $40 for a chance to add $140, we need to receive a check/fold 28.6% of the time on the turn for this to be a good decision. Based upon the assumed hand range this may be optomistic. We can really only get 99-QQ to potentially fold and maybe some weaker kickers if an ace comes. Additionally, we have not considered the possibility that opponent will check/call the turn or check raise. However, with that being said there also may be an additional decision we can make on the turn. If our opponent checks to us, we can check behind. We should only do this if the hand has potential to capture showdown value. For example if we hit a pair, we have the potential to hit two pair. Checking with the intention of only calling if we hit two pair or better gives us the opportunity to win more when we hit, and not lose anything other than the initial $40 when we miss. Because we know what hands will be best against our range we can calculate there are 10 hearts in the deck that pick up a flush draw, 3 non hearted 4s that pick up a gutshot draw, 3 non hearted 5s that pick up an open ended draw, 3 non hearted 7s that pick up a pair, 3 non hearted 8s that pick up a pair, 3 non hearted 9s that pick up an open ended straight draw, and 3 non hearted tens that pick up a gutshot straight draw. That is 30 cards in the deck that potentially will allow us to continue. Of course we not only would need the pot odds to make a call on the turn but the implied odds to make up for money risked on prior streets to make it equitable.. As such, the decision to call on the flop may STILL be a little loose... HOWEVER... The reason that you might endorse it is because it makes you look like a calling station which means people may not bluff you as much which is helpful as if they see a bet they know you aren't likely someone they can bluff with a reraise. It also helps you in the future by those who know you're floating the flop by those who double barrel bluff as that may help you when you have a hand. It also isn't that losing of a decision that you may not be able to make up for it with other decisions. So should you go for it? Not necessarily. While it's nice to sometimes MIX in the occasional call on a backoor draw it isn't necessarily the best or only option. However, occasionally making this play against the RIGHT opponents who have a wider range of hands and continuation bet a lot is a great way to open up steal opportunities on the turn if they do NOT continuation bet a lot on the turn as well and fold the turn more often. Fortunately most good players that stay on the flop, fold a lot on the turn. This is because if they can't win on the turn they are going to be cognizant of players trying to trap them. Conversely players that fold a lot on the turn are more likely to fold less on the turn since they have a better hand. However, if you know enough information about your opponent or can intuit some information about them with a decent confidence range, you can run the math to see at what point it is profitable.... Running calculations to see what amount you have to risk on the turn to bluff and what happens in every situation is very taxing work, but if you map out a typical opponent from early, middle and late position and the extremes and everywhere between you will have a very good idea of a data set and decision to apply to your opponent when the game actualy starts... You can use that information to put a player into a general category and make a lot more profitable decisions. While most players are giving up $17.71 when faced with a bet, you may be able to reduce the long term loss of that pot from $17, by gaining a percentage of the pot from bluffs and getting paid off big when you hit on future streets. I will RARELY float against the profile and expected range of hands I just gave. But I will actively float people who continuation bet over 70% of the time provided they aren't starting out with an ultra tight range of hands to begin with with nothing but a backdoor draw. There are even times when it is profitable to cal with ANY TWO if your opponent doesn't adjust his style. Additionally, I will gladly "float" with a gutshot and an overcard, two overcards to the board and backdoor straight and/or flush draws, and a gutshot with a backdoor flushdraw or a flushdraw or open ended straight draw. I may draw to an underpair to hit a set but that is dangerous because hitting a set is very vulnerable to a higher set or higher pocket pair that is just as likely to hit a set on the other card as me. If it is profitable to call with any two, I'm probably going to prefer raising on the flop, preferably minraising to keep my opponent in. If my opponent has any sort of draw or overcards he probably will only hit them between 10% and 20% of the time with one card. Although I'm more leery about my opponent staying in on a flush or straight draw, There is more to be made by letting him stay in and fold, or if his pair ends up making my draw, let him check hoping I'll bet and allow me to see the river and get paid off often enough to make it equitable. Now what about just bluffing? Why float the flop when you can just bluff on the flop immediately with raises? Several reasons... First, information. Where if opponent puts $40 in and you put in $100 or $120 you are bluffing without the information of the check that comes on the turn. The second reason is opportunity to "call an audible and control the pot size enough to see the river. If for example opponent isn't going to fold to your raise on the flop OR the turn, now you know he has a big hand so if you pick up a draw and HE bets, now you can be VERY confident the implied odds are in fact there to call a pot sized bet on the turn knowing you can move all in if you hit on the river with very little chance of getting beat, and very high chance of geting called with worse. (watch out for PAIRED BOARDS that make your draw but could give opponent a fullhouse or scare him away fro a shove when he misses.) If I am going to bluff the flop, it probably will be in a big pot and an all in and it probably will be with the nut flush draw and possibly also a pair or straight draw. I want a lot of outs to bluff. I may very rarely bluff with les if the pot is bigger but I do so with the right proportion to shoves all in with a set or two pair and depending on my opponent maybe other flush draws and pairs and straight draws. If the pot is NOT big I may push a busted draw on the turn OR a made draw on the turn OR a made hand, but will again do it in a way that has an overall strategy that is profitable based upon my assumptions. Moving all in on the turn is very aggressive and very loose and not very typical of my play. However, under the right circumstances I will because it's very difficult to call as well. This is a good counter move to those that float the turn themselves or continuation bet a lot on the flop and double barrel or that continuation bet too much on the turn after I make a small reraise on the flop to set it up. Any move can be profitable under the right circumstances but you HAVE to know what those circumstances are and get yourself very well prepared if you want to make such a style work. Granted, if you are Phil Ivey and have played for decades online and offline and have such a huge database of hands and experience you may intuitively have a good idea of the right decisions, but for everyone else and even those WITH experience who may suffer from recency bias or any number of potential biases, you should know the math. Put in the work it takes to be great, or else you will be victim to those that do and spewing chips when you make mistakes AS WELL as when you get unlucky and you will find it really easy to be a "victim" to chance and overconfidence rather than proactively improving your game and KNOWING the difference between making the right decision and getting unlucky. double barrel bluff more often which is profitable when you have a hand. It alsol