I actually think you should raise more than 3 times because:
1)Blinds continue to go up offering an advantage for waiting longer. Although you may give up 9 big blinds and then win 9, you actually will win 9 at higher levels of blinds which equates to MORE than winning back what you lost PLUS the blinds and antes for that level.
2)Your opponents may also call you with too many hands which favor being able to raise more and fold more.
3)Although the game theory ASSUMES opponents adjust perfectly and immediately (which requires them to be psychic enough to know your exact strategy at any given time but not psychic enough to know anything but your hand RANGE.), reality is the opposite. Opponents often don't make any adjustment at all and cannot know whether you switched style or had a good run of cards. So if you raise more often and fold more often, you can give yourself plenty of room to adjust the first or second time you get reraised and have to fold If you switch to the normal raise and have to fold again, opponents think you fold too much now so you can raise with even fewer hands and you are probably going to get reraised
4)Opponents theoretically should almost never just call preflop unless they have a skill and/or positional advantage. But many opponents do. That means because you won't get reraised and opponents are likely to TRY to exploit you, you don't need as balanced of a strategy. You can raise much more often.
5)Often times in tournaments it is better to raise 2 or 2.5 times the big blind. If that's the case nd the reraises are not 3x the big blind you will be able to see more flops, and have the pot odds to call ome reraises even. This adds more dimension to the game and means you can widen your range IF you have a post flop advantage.
6)More importantly is how the players in the blinds respond If they are very tight, you should target there blinds. If someone else is targeting a players blinds or raising too much, you should target them on a resteal. You do NOT need to worry as much about cards if an opportunity is profitable enough regardless of cards, or profitable enough where you can start the hand as an underdog.
7)Antes add a better payout on your raises and pots you win to where it can be profitable for BOTH players in the blinds and the initial raiser to play the hand and in the long run split the blinds. So even if you are an underdog to opponents range and equally skilled, you can still come in with only a 40% chance of being best preflop.
08If you DO have an edge in small, low varience strategies, it will have a high probability of EXTENDING your "hands left" in reality and as a result, you will be able to get your chips in the middle with not only more chips when you catch a hand but ALSO a better hand and a greater probability your hand is best.
So take a raise strategy with a grain of salt. I'd much prefer to use the 40-60% chance your hand is best preflop range ESXCEPT if it is drastically more hands than you can afford to wait for like more than 6 times as many hands or if chip stacks are shorter.
| 6 handed chart | |||||
| % chance of having the best hand preflop | |||||
| plys left | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.75 | |
| UTG | 5 | 0.1675 | 0.13 | 0.097 | 0.056 |
| UTG+1 | 4 | 0.2205 | 0.159 | 0.12 | 0.069 |
| Cutoff | 3 | 0.2632 | 0.206 | 0.157 | 0.091 |
| Button | 2 | 0.3675 | 0.293 | 0.225 | 0.134 |
| SB | 1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.25 |
| 9 handed chart | plys left | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.75 |
| UTG | 8 | 0.1082 | 0.083 | 0.062 | 0.035 |
| UTG+1 | 7 | 0.1227 | 0.094 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| UTG+2 | 6 | 0.1416 | 0.109 | 0.082 | 0.047 |
| Lojack | 5 | 0.1675 | 0.13 | 0.097 | 0.056 |
| Hijack | 4 | 0.2205 | 0.159 | 0.12 | 0.069 |
| Cutoff | 3 | 0.2632 | 0.206 | 0.157 | 0.091 |
| Button | 2 | 0.3675 | 0.293 | 0.225 | 0.134 |
| SB | 1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.25 |
or more specifically... |
40% chance of best hand
8 77+, AJ+, KQ, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+,JTs (10.82%)
7 12.27% 77+,AJ+,KQ,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,
6 14.16% 77+,AJ+,KQ,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,T8s+,98s,87s,76s
5 16.75% 77+.AJ+.kQ,Qj,JT,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,
4 20.47% 77+,At+,KT+,QT+,JT+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,
3 26.32% 22+,A9+,KT+,QT+,JT+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,97s,87s,76s,65s,54s
2 36.75% 22+,A9+,KT+,Q9+,J9+,T8+,98,87,76,A2s+,K2s+,Q7s+,J7s+,T6s+,96s,86s,75s+,64s+,53s+,43s
1 60% LOL Everything except like Q2-Q4,J or lower with 6 high or lower kicker, and a few really bad suited cards.
50% chance of having best hand
8 8.3 88+, AJ+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs
7 9.43 88+, AJ+, KQ, ATs+,KTs+,QJs,JTs
6 10.91 66+, AJ+, KQ, ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s
5 12.95 66+, AJ+, KQ, ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
4 15.91 66+, AJ+, KQ,QJ,JT, A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
3 20.63 55+, AT+,KT+,QT+,JT,A7s+,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
2 29.29 22+, A9+,KT+,QT+,JT,T9,98,87,76,65,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
1 50 Just a bunch of hands. Any king any ace, gap connectors, suited 2 and 3 gappers, etc
60% chance of having best hand
8 6.19 99+,AQ+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,
7 7.04 88+,AQ+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs, T9s,98s
6 8.16 88+,AJ+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,
5 9.71 88+,AJ+,KQ,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s
4 11.99 88+,AJ+,KQ,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s
3 15.66 77+,AJ+,KQ,QJ,JT,T9,A2s+,KTs+,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s
2 22.54 22+,AT+,KJ+,QJ,JT,T9,A2s+,K2s+,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s
1 40 22+, A2+, K9+,Q9+,J9+,T9,98,87,K2s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s,64s,54s,43s
75% chance of having best hand
8 3.53 JJ+,AK,AJs+
7 4.03 JJ+,AQ+,AJs+
6 4.68 JJ+,AQ+,AJs+
5 5.59 TT+,AQ+,AJs+,KQs
4 6.94 99+,AJ+, ATs+,KQs
3 9.14 77+,AT+,A9s+,KQs,
2 13.40 66+,At+,KQ,A2s,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s
1 25 22+,A8+,KT+,QT+,JT+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s
3 bets should be done based upon opponents range of hands. If you are just looking at "expected value" you should generally raise between 40-60% of your opponent's range depending on how often he'll fold and how much is in the middle. However, if we are talking about max patience strategy you can play much tighter, particularly if you are probably going to get called.
| hands left | 3bet X% of opponents range |
| 10 | 0.378326 |
| 20 | 0.198528 |
| 30 | 0.134443 |
| 40 | 0.101617 |
| 50 | 0.08167 |
| 60 | 0.068268 |
| 65 | 0.063091 |
| 70 | 0.058644 |
| 80 | 0.05143 |
| 90 | 0.04571 |
| 100 | 0.041163 |
| 120 | 0.034431 |
| 140 | 0.029519 |
| 150 | 0.027554 |
You also probably want to be willing to MOVE all in with around twice as often as you are willing to call since your opponents may fold.
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