Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Entire Tournament Maximum Patience Preflop

A list detailing the entire preflop strategy for tournament survival as well as a loose, tight, and equilibrium strategy preflop for cash games.

By hand range percentage (except 3bet which is % of opponent's range)


hands left odds of hand being best given range to equal odds of being best (maximum patience/all in to call or push)











3bet X% of opponents range


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1 0.111 0.889 0.667 0.519 0.423 0.356 0.307 0.269 0.24
1 1 1 1 1 0.92 0.81 0.72
0.888889
2 0.173 0.827 0.584 0.443 0.355 0.296 0.254 0.222 0.197
1 1 1 1 0.89 0.76 0.67 0.59
0.826823
3 0.342 0.658 0.415 0.301 0.235 0.193 0.164 0.142 0.126
1 1 0.9 0.71 0.58 0.49 0.43 0.38
0.658369
4 0.46 0.54 0.322 0.228 0.177 0.144 0.122 0.105 0.092
1 0.97 0.68 0.53 0.43 0.36 0.32 0.28
0.540194
5 0.544 0.456 0.263 0.184 0.141 0.115 0.097 0.083 0.073
1 0.79 0.55 0.42 0.34 0.29 0.25 0.22
0.455621
6 0.607 0.393 0.221 0.154 0.118 0.095 0.08 0.069 0.061
1 0.66 0.46 0.35 0.29 0.24 0.21 0.18
0.39305
7 0.655 0.345 0.191 0.132 0.101 0.081 0.068 0.059 0.052
1 0.57 0.39 0.3 0.24 0.2 0.18 0.15
0.345195
8 0.692 0.308 0.168 0.116 0.088 0.071 0.06 0.051 0.045
0.92 0.5 0.35 0.26 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.14
0.307534
9 0.723 0.277 0.15 0.103 0.078 0.063 0.053 0.045 0.04
0.83 0.45 0.31 0.23 0.19 0.16 0.14 0.12
0.277179
10 0.748 0.252 0.135 0.092 0.07 0.056 0.047 0.041 0.036
0.76 0.41 0.28 0.21 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.11
0.252217
11 0.769 0.231 0.123 0.084 0.064 0.051 0.043 0.037 0.032
0.69 0.37 0.25 0.19 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.1
0.231344
12 0.786 0.214 0.114 0.077 0.059 0.047 0.039 0.034 0.03
0.64 0.34 0.23 0.18 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.09
0.213639
13 0.802 0.198 0.105 0.071 0.054 0.043 0.036 0.031 0.027
0.6 0.31 0.21 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08
0.198435
14 0.815 0.185 0.098 0.066 0.05 0.04 0.034 0.029 0.025
0.56 0.29 0.2 0.15 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.08
0.185242
15 0.826 0.174 0.091 0.062 0.047 0.038 0.031 0.027 0.024
0.52 0.27 0.19 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07
0.173686
16 0.837 0.163 0.085 0.058 0.044 0.035 0.029 0.025 0.022
0.49 0.26 0.17 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07
0.163482
17 0.846 0.154 0.08 0.054 0.041 0.033 0.028 0.024 0.021
0.46 0.24 0.16 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.06
0.154408
18 0.854 0.146 0.076 0.051 0.039 0.031 0.026 0.022 0.02
0.44 0.23 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
0.146284
19 0.861 0.139 0.072 0.049 0.037 0.03 0.025 0.021 0.019
0.42 0.22 0.15 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06
0.138971
20 0.868 0.132 0.069 0.046 0.035 0.028 0.023 0.02 0.018
0.4 0.21 0.14 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
0.132352
21 0.874 0.126 0.065 0.044 0.033 0.027 0.022 0.019 0.017
0.38 0.2 0.13 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
0.126334
22 0.879 0.121 0.063 0.042 0.032 0.025 0.021 0.018 0.016
0.36 0.19 0.13 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05
0.120838
23 0.884 0.116 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.024 0.02 0.018 0.015
0.35 0.18 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05
0.1158
24 0.889 0.111 0.057 0.039 0.029 0.023 0.02 0.017 0.015
0.33 0.17 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
0.111164
25 0.893 0.107 0.055 0.037 0.028 0.022 0.019 0.016 0.014
0.32 0.17 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
0.106885
26 0.897 0.103 0.053 0.036 0.027 0.022 0.018 0.015 0.014
0.31 0.16 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04
0.102842
27 0.901 0.099 0.051 0.034 0.026 0.021 0.017 0.015 0.013
0.3 0.15 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
0.099273
28 0.904 0.096 0.049 0.033 0.025 0.02 0.017 0.014 0.013
0.29 0.15 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
0.095714
29 0.907 0.093 0.048 0.032 0.024 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.012
0.28 0.14 0.1 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
0.092614
30 0.91 0.09 0.046 0.031 0.023 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.012
0.27 0.14 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
0.089628
31 0.913 0.087 0.045 0.03 0.023 0.018 0.015 0.013 0.011
0.26 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03
0.086824
32 0.916 0.084 0.043 0.029 0.022 0.018 0.015 0.013 0.011
0.25 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
0.084235
33 0.918 0.082 0.042 0.028 0.021 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.011
0.24 0.13 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
0.081658
34 0.921 0.079 0.041 0.027 0.02 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.01
0.24 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
0.07939
35 0.923 0.077 0.04 0.026 0.02 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.01
0.23 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03
0.077166
36 0.925 0.075 0.038 0.026 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.01
0.23 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03
0.075072
37 0.927 0.073 0.037 0.025 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.009
0.22 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03
0.073151
38 0.929 0.071 0.036 0.024 0.018 0.015 0.012 0.01 0.009
0.21 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
0.071199
39 0.931 0.069 0.035 0.024 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.01 0.009
0.21 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
0.069349
40 0.932 0.068 0.035 0.023 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.01 0.009
0.2 0.1 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
0.067744
41 0.934 0.066 0.034 0.023 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.01 0.009
0.2 0.1 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.06614
42 0.935 0.065 0.033 0.022 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.01 0.008
0.19 0.1 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.064644
43 0.937 0.063 0.032 0.022 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008
0.19 0.1 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.063115
44 0.938 0.062 0.032 0.021 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008
0.19 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.061751
45 0.94 0.06 0.031 0.021 0.015 0.012 0.01 0.009 0.008
0.18 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.060354
46 0.941 0.059 0.03 0.02 0.015 0.012 0.01 0.009 0.008
0.18 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.059019
47 0.942 0.058 0.03 0.02 0.015 0.012 0.01 0.009 0.008
0.17 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.057825
48 0.943 0.057 0.029 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.01 0.008 0.007
0.17 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.056598
49 0.944 0.056 0.029 0.019 0.014 0.011 0.01 0.008 0.007
0.17 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.055576
50 0.946 0.054 0.028 0.019 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007
0.16 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.054447
60 0.954 0.046 0.024 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.006
0.14 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.045512
65 0.958 0.042 0.021 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005
0.13 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.042061
70 0.961 0.039 0.02 0.013 0.01 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005
0.12 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.039096
80 0.966 0.034 0.017 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004
0.1 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.034286
90 0.97 0.03 0.015 0.01 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004
0.09 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
0.030473
100 0.973 0.027 0.014 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003
0.08 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.027442
120 0.977 0.023 0.012 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003
0.07 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.022954
140 0.98 0.02 0.01 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003
0.06 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.019679
150 0.982 0.018 0.009 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002
0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.018369

A word on how this list is made. The "maximum patience" is first calculated by determining the top hand range that you have a 50% chance of seeing. For example with 10 hands left you have a 50% chance of seeing the top 7.41% of hands which is roughly 88+, AQ+, ATs+, KTs+,QJs+. From there we recognize that with 2 opponents left the odds the preflop hand starts out as best is 85.72%. With 8 opponents left the chances are only 54%. So we determine this with 2 through 8 opponents left including 1 player left twice and average this total to get 74.8% chance that our hand is best. Based upon this we want to adjust our hand range by players left to EQUAL a 74.8% chance the hand is best. So we come up with the following hand range:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.25 0.14 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.0356

That means if you have 10 hands left you should be looking for that hand range given that many opponents. That is the BEST hand you should wait for or "maximum patience" hand range. I consider this to typically be your 4bet raising hand range. In reality you are so very likely to get called unless you are very deep stack that this can be the same as the hand range we also call a 4bet with or raise with intention of calling a 3bet push.

Sometimes you might loosen up this hand range a little bit for pushes vs keeping it the same for calls. If you think opponent will fold your 4bet or 3bet all in such as 50% but I didn't do that here. Now if you are going to move all in or call an all in with this hand range, you should raise with about 3 times the hand range. WHY? Without knowing our opponents if we raise and fold 2 times and move in on the third we give up 3 big blinds twice and on the third time we make 9 big blinds plus what's in the middle.

We need to make up for all the folding we do waiting for a hand and thus need to be able to take a steal per rotation on average. If we are raising once per rotation about, then we can give up 2 steals, pay 1.5 big blinds twice or 3 big blinds and then we will need to gain 9 back on the third.
 Another way of looking at it is forcing opponent to not profit from their 3bet. We let our opponent take 3 big blinds plus what is in the middle twice or 4.5 twice or 9 big blinds and then on the 3rd we take it all back plus a blind and a half. So if you would 4bet all in with 20% of hands, you should raise with 3*.20=.60=60% of all hands.

Finally, the 3bet range can be all in and effectively should be 1 minus the odds our hand is best as a percentage of opponent's range. In other words if the most we can wait for is a 10% chance our hand is best, w3e should 3bet (presumably all in) with 90% of his range. Or only fold the bottom 10%. If we can wait for a 90% chance our hand is best, we only want to 3bet (presumably all in) with the top 10% of his range. That means if he raises with 50% of all hands we should only 3bet all in with 5%.
Since in most cases a 3bet is either a bet in which we are pot committed to calling an all in or a large push all in we have a much better chance of opponent folding. I would say it is perfectly okay to 3bet with 1.5 times the range given or 50% more. As such, here is a modified chart of the 3bet that may be better:


hands left 3bet X% of opponents range
1 1
2 1
3 0.987553
4 0.810291
5 0.683432
6 0.589575
7 0.517793
8 0.461301
9 0.415768
10 0.378326
11 0.347017
12 0.320458
13 0.297653
14 0.277863
15 0.26053
16 0.245224
17 0.231611
18 0.219426
19 0.208456
20 0.198528
21 0.1895
22 0.181257
23 0.173699
24 0.166746
25 0.160327
26 0.154263
27 0.148909
28 0.14357
29 0.138921
30 0.134443
31 0.130237
32 0.126353
33 0.122486
34 0.119085
35 0.115749
36 0.112608
37 0.109727
38 0.106799
39 0.104023
40 0.101617
41 0.099209
42 0.096966
43 0.094672
44 0.092627
45 0.090531
46 0.088528
47 0.086737
48 0.084897
49 0.083364
50 0.08167
60 0.068268
65 0.063091
70 0.058644
80 0.05143
90 0.04571
100 0.041163
120 0.034431
140 0.029519
150 0.027554


Postflop play may allow you to limp or minraise with a lot more hands and even call raises with more hands as well depending on opponent. Theoretically min-raising with more than 3times your 4bet range is exploitable, but with escalating blinds and plenty of time to adjust your raising range it probably is not in reality. Yet against liberal re-raisers it is probably not necessary nor the best course of action.  The minraise you are looking to see more flops in position and exploit or at least fight for the equity you have left by making loose calls, bluffs and semi-bluffs on later streets mixed in with large value raises as well. But if you are being "maximally patient" you probably could also see a TON of flops and give them up, finally hit a monster flop and get paid off the entire stack. Such possibilities may make seeing lots of flops acceptable.

Unfortunately I find it is also a distraction to play that many flops and unless you are extremely disciplined it may result in you getting your money in much worse, or much better, but overall it potentially will be a much more volatile strategy which you probably don't want if you are going for patience.

The thing about "maximum patience" is it's a strategy that is proven to work, it provides structure which will give you the disciplined, and probably will work under all conditions. It may not be the best possible strategy out there, or massively profitable as some strategies that walk the fineline between just loose enough to exploit opponent to the max, and having them adjust or you yourself getting too loose assuming they adjust.

Maximum patience very well could be massively profitable in some circumstances and is almost always profitable in tournaments. Think about it this way as you fold, a lot other people will knock each other out of the tournaments which may earn you money. You still will potentially see a flop in the big blind and a lot of walks which may get you chips. Those flops you see are free opportunities to potentially hit the flop big and earn a lot of money but most likely should be looked at as situations to simply hope to see as many cards as you can for free and if you get fold you can let them bluff you because the cost of doing business is already factored in. When you raise and get called, you basically should look at it as you are trying to break even on the hand rather than make a killing. Remember when you risk 3 big blinds, you can easily fold 2 times and then on the 3rd get 9 big blinds and not only break even but keep up with the blinds I consider it likely that you will gain much more than that.  Afterall the pot will probably be 7.50 big blinds after a 3x raise and simply two half pot bets will be 3.75 and 7.50 or 11.25. So if you can expect probably more than 11.25 when you have a hand worth going to the river to, you get to wait and fold 3 times on the flop and on the 4th you can play. Of course the problem with that is you do not have 100% equity when you play and occasionally you still may have to fold, so you have to basically see the showdown on the 4th time for that price BUT occasionally also make a big river bet and get action enough to make up for the lost equity.

The top 25% of flops is perfectly fine to wait for. Playing the top 50% of flops and 25% of turn and 12.5% of rivers is another way to approach it with a bet on every street. This means you lose 7/8 hands but on the 8th make up for all your losses. That strategy can absolutely work wonders especially if people notice and THEN you start playing to win 2/8 instead or switch up to be the 7/8 where you win and on the 8th your opponent catches a hand. If you are able to understand how to use each strategy post flop you can I like being tighter on the flop but giving appearance that I will call with nothing to potentially bluff some flops.

However, as a flop more clearly defines your hand it is often pretty silly to try to fight this hard for one card, and waiting for a better flop usually pays off. Of course that depends upon the opponent. If you sense that he will observe that you are playing fit or fold poker and not continue after the flop, you have to change it up vs this opponent.

In reality you can probably get a lot more out of a lot of those flops by flat calling about half the time or more if opponent bets and looking to take down with a bluff on the turn or take a free card if you pick up a draw. You can exploit opponent. You can call light because if you hit the draw you can move all in and rarely need to get called with a worse hand for it to be profitable, and rarely need to bluff if at all with the same move. Just understand both sides of the coin can work and don't be afraid to switch gears every now and then to adapt to the situation.




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