Tournament Strategy Design

One way to model tournaments is to look at the blind levels and have an assumed/estimated rate of chip accumulation. You may accumulate more on different levels based upon your expected chip stack in big blinds, the size of the antes and what stage of the tournament.



Then you can determine you need to double up 3 times throughout the tournament in about 187 hands. You can then determine the probability that you are dealt a given hand X or more times.



Based on this information we need to double up about 3 times given the structure and we have a 64.8% chance of being dealt JJ or better 3 times or more and a 46.2% chance of being dealt QQ+. As you have gone through more hands without doubling up or if you are behind on the rate of chip accumulation you might decide you need to widen your range. you should constantly adjust based upon projected hands left. You can try to double up more or less than this amount and you could easily be dealt 99 and have it be stronger than JJ in certain conditions plus you have postflop to consider, but it's worth thinking about. So let's say you haven't doubled up and have accumulated chips at the expected rate minus a double up and you have 120 hands left projected. Now you can widen your hand selection. Or perhaps you've doubled up and only need to double up 2 more times, you can narrow your hand range or widen it depending on hands left. This is one way to approach risk. Perhaps you want a greater probability of cashing first and so you want a stronger hand and a greater probability of surviving. Or perhaps you want a greater probability of winning and think you can parlay an earlier double up into a greater edge and less risk overall. You can make adjustments. Perhaps there are lots of postflop situations and can get your money in better. Perhaps you aren't likely to get action with your big hand so you need to widen your range or find a way to increase your edge. But this is a good baseline to start with. Slower structures you can be more selective assuming you can still get paid off when you have a hand.