When you choose to bluff you want to have a hand not strong enough to call because you have value to continue by just calling. However, you can still bluff with the bottom end of your hand range that has value in calling and you especially can do so with hands with bad reverse implied odds and only marginal value to call. Hands like low pocket pairs has value vs one bet but not vs multiple if opponents narrow their range with streets and that prefer not to see multiple streets where play becomes more difficult you can consider raising as a bluff.
Assume opponent has 55+,AQo+,AJs+,KQs and he raises 2.2 in the ante stages in a tournament.
You can technically call if you are 32.26% to win.
That means you can call the raise with:
44+,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s
If our opponent will call a 3bet with tighter than TT+,AKo,AQs+ we can raise with any two profitably assuming we bet pot
If our opponent plays exactly this range we'd probably only want value
over the calling range which may only be TT,JJ,AQs and sometimes AK,
sometimes, AKs and sometimes QQ.
bluff equity vs opponents assumed calling range for reference:
33 35.898%
22 35.318%
Q7s 32.359%
Q6s 32.609%
Q5s 32.504%
Q4s 32.224%
Q3s 31.851%
Q2s 31.474%
K5s 31.452%
54s 31.429%
65s 31.382%
K4s 31.157%
76s 31.087%
J6s 30.983%
75s 30.174%
K3s 30.763%
K2s 30.366%
64s 30.033%
53s 29.973%
86s 29.903%
43s 29.689%
Q9o 29.890%
J8o 29.002%
85s 28.911%
74s 28.746%
96s 28.558%
T6s 28.231%
32s 27.844%
A8o 27.079%
K9o 27.776%
T8o 26.098%98o 25.545%
If our opponents make more mistakes after the flop we can bluff raise with a wider range.
On the flop:
On the flop bluff raising is a little bit different, but let's take a J72 board with 2 spades and one heart and let's look at an opponent who bets something like:
66+,22,A9s+,A5s,A2s,AJo+, J9 or a better jack J7s+,K7s,T9s,T7s,97s+,87s,57s,67s
All flushdraws we can mostly call and sometimes raise as a semibluff.
all 22 89.19% most often raise, occasionally call
all JJ 93.23% most often raise, occasionally call
all 77 90.75% most often raise, occasionally call
all QQ 68.26% usually raise, sometimes call
all KK 72.54% usually raise, sometimes call
all AA 76.59% usually raise, sometimes call
all AJ 66.71% call mostly, sometimes raise
all A2 33.70% almost always call
all 88 35.10% almost always call
all 99 38.59% almost always call
all TT 42.11% call
all AA 76.59%
all a7 40% call
backdoor spades (highcard) AK 31.42% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) AK 30.75% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (suited hearts) AK 30.56% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (highcard) t9 28.52% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) t9 28.52% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (suited hearts) t9 28.52% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (suited hearts) t8 27.22% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (highcard) t8 27.09% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (suited hearts) 98 27.06% mostly call, rarely raise
no draw AK 27.04% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (highcard) 98 26.92% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) t8 26.84% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) 98 26.64% mostly call, rarely raise
backdoor spades (highcard) AQ 25.91% mostly call, sometimes raise
backdoor spades (suited hearts) AQ 25.44% mostly call, sometimes raise
no draw t9 25.38% mostly call, sometimes raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) AQ 25.18% mostly call, sometimes raise
all 66 24.56% usually bluff raise
all 55 24.18% usually bluff raise
no draw t8 24.02% float or bluff raise mixture
all 33 23.89% usually bluff raise
no draw 98 23.84% float or bluff raise mixture
all 44 23.46% usually bluff raise
backdoor spades (highcard) AT 22.63% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (highcard) kt 22.17% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (suited hearts) kt 22.05% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (suited hearts) AT 21.95% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (suited hearts) qt 21.87% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (highcard) qt 21.75% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (lowcard) kt 21.62% float or bluff raise mixture
no draw AQ 21.58% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (lowcard) AT 21.56% usually bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) qt 21.46% float or bluff raise mixture
backdoor spades (highcard) A9 21.09% usually bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (highcard) A8 20.88% usually bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) A9 20.55% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (highcard) k9 20.40% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) k9 20.33% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) A8 20.30% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) q9 20.17% usually bluff raise, sometimes float, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (highcard) q9 20.01% usually bluff raise, sometimes float, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) A9 20% usually bluff raise, sometimes float, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) k9 19.87% bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) q9 19.74% bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) A8 19.42% bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (highcard) A5 19.05% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (highcard) A4 18.70% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (highcard) A3 18.70% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) A5 18.47% usually float, sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
no draw kt 18.31% sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
no draw AT 18.15% sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
no draw qt 18.14% sometimes bluff raise, sometimes fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) A4 18.10% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) A3 18.10% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (highcard) A6 17.88% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) A6 17.30% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) A5 17.25% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) A4 16.90% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) A3 16.90% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
no draw A9 16.64% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
no draw k9 16.47% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
no draw A8 16.43% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
no draw q9 16.33% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (lowcard) A6 16.10% usually fold, sometimes mixed bluff raise or fold
backdoor spades (suited hearts) 86 15.42% mostly fold very rarely float
backdoor spades (highcard) 86 14.86% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) 86 14.68% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
no draw A5 14.64% no draw
backdoor spades (suited hearts) 45 14.44% mostly fold very rarely float
backdoor spades (suited hearts) 65 14.38% mostly fold very rarely float
no draw A4 14.30% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
no draw A3 14.30% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
backdoor spades (suited hearts) 96 14.13% mostly fold very rarely float
backdoor spades (suited hearts) 95 13.98% mostly fold very rarely float
backdoor spades (highcard) 96 13.77% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
backdoor spades (highcard) 45 13.76% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) 45 13.75% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
backdoor spades (highcard) 65 13.72% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
backdoor spades (lowcard) 65 13.70% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
backdoor spades (highcard) 95 13.65% mostly fold very rarely bluff raise
no draw A6 13.38% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
backdoor spades (lowcard) 96 13.30% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
backdoor spades (suited hearts) 34 13.25% mostly fold very rarely float
backdoor spades (lowcard) 95 13.12% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
backdoor spades (highcard) 34 12.48% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
backdoor spades (lowcard) 34 12.48% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
no draw 86 11.78% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
no draw 45 10.85% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
no draw 65 10.80% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
no draw 96 10.60% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
no draw 95 10.20% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
no draw 34 9.57% fold. only rare opponent specific decisions
Some opponents fold often enough on the flop or on prior streets for you to profitably be able to bet any 2 cards but even so, you don't want to give opponent reason to adjust so unless you specifically know this opponent isn't capable of adjusting or only very occasionally mix in these bluffs when you haven't bluffed in awhile, you haven't played a pot with this opponent in awhile, your opponent maybe hasn't been tilted and doesn't have a reason to change his play and you haven't had a spot where you can bluff anyone in awhile especially this opponent. In that case the cards really don't matter but even so, I see no reason why you can't at least have some standards just in case your assumptions are wrong.... At least on the flop. By the river hands will approach zero equity or 100% and have much fewer hands between. On the turn there will still be some longshot draws with one card to improve and hands like KQ that could hit the top pair and still not be good but have at least some chance (like under 10%) of winning when called.
on say a J728 board with 2 suits you might bluff hands like:
KQ with flush draw
A2-A6 with flush draw.
A9
AT
KQ no flush draw
A7
A2
Value hands after 2 streets of betting go down.
On the river it's more about which river cards you bluff and how often then what hand since bluffs will have pretty close to zero chance of winning when called. Bluffs should be much less frequent on the river than on the flop and even than on the turn.
Theoretical bluff to value ratio looks something like this. For a half the pot bet you are giving your opponents 3 to 1 and therefore they only need to be right 1/4 times. You should bluff such you are indifferent to whether or not they call because if you bluff more often they can always call and if you bluff less often they can always fold bluff catchers.
So on the river you should bluff 25% of the time to make them right on 1/4 calls.
On the turn you get to leverage the possibility of multiple bets and hands that are value on the turn may lose value when facing a n additional bet so you can bluff more as some bluff hands will improve and become value hands and some value hands will decline. The purpose of bluffing more is so that the river frequency matches the ratio needed and to have balance for multiple possible rivers to represent.
So you should actually bluff if you intend on 2 half the pot bets 1-(.75*.75)=43.75% and on the flop
1-(.75*.75*.75) =57.8125% on the flop.
With larger bets your opponents get worse pot odds and therefore have to call less often so you can bluff more often and still force opponent to break even. However, keep in mind this % is not of total hands that you have, but total hands that you bluff. So given your opponent can fold more often, fewer hands have value when called and therefore, fewer bets for value and so the total % of hands you bluff might not be any larger and may even be smaller if you bet bigger.
Minimum defend frequency=bluff catching.
Your opponent has to defend some percentage of the time to prevent you from bluffing profitably with any two cards so on the river they need to call you based upon the price you get when you bet. You are risking 1 half bet to get 2 halfbets on a half pot bet so opponents must defend you 50% of the time by calling or raising.
I don't know how it works on the river, but let's just assume it procedes similarly to how we can bluff more. I believe if we bluff more our opponent can continue more (and rebluff more). So I believe if we bet half pot bet our opponent should defend 87.5% on the flop, 75% on the turn and 50% on the river to deny us the ability to parlay multiple bets and bluff successfully with any two.
That may be a little high, but certainly if our opponent defends a pot size bet less than 50% on any street we can profitably bluff with any two and many of the bluffing hands will have some equity on earlier streets so we can bluff pretty widely and should defend at least some percentage more than 50% when our opponent bets half the pot. We not only have to protect our hands but also protect multiple streets of multiple hands and force our opponent to consider a wide range of hands that we can have.
I think to confirm this we can run a simulation but I will do that later perhaps..
You never should bluff more than 50% on the river unless you know opponent folds too often and won't adjust.
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