Let's say you're on the final table bubble with KJ on the cutoff. It folds to you and you have 10 big blinds. In most situations, it should obviously be a shove. But you have a feeling you'll get called with nearly 20% of hands. A range of 77+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A7o+,K9o+,QJo vs KJo is going to be behind with 42.665% to win. Foretunately, you have fold equity still. If 3 opponents fold 80% of the time each, that's about a .80^3=~51% chance they all fold.
However, on the bubble there are bubble factors you're supposed to adjust for. The chips you lose are supposed to be worth about 1.6 times more than the chips you win because losing chips threatens you being unable to fold up the money and make considerably more.
So when you lose, you aren't losing 10, you're losing 16.
If you get folds 51% of the time and pick up 2.25 (EV of 2.25*.51=1.1475), and you get called and win 12.25 .49*.42665 or expected value of 12.25*.49*.42665=~2.56 and called and lose 16 for EV of -16*.49*.57335=~-4.5, the total sum is 1.15+2.56-4.5=-.79. So the individual result of shoving with KJo is actually losing money. While technically acceptable to shove with some losing hands to force opponent to widen call off range and collectively make more shoving WITH KJo than without it, I think it's a fair assumption that opponents are highly unlikely to adjust very much to you.
Also, opponents probably SHOULD be calling you much tighter than this due to bubble factors themselves, but if you think they probably won't, then shoving becomes incorrect, because their decision to call with hands like A7 and QJ ends up hurting BOTH of you.
A standard "push/fold" chart that doesn't account bubble factors will say to push with
22+ A2s+ A2o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s
But I believe pushing this wide on the bubble is almost certainly a mistake.
Nevertheless, there is a very strange concept with regard to tournaments. If everyone is pushing with wider and calling with wieder, the probability of you being able to continue without having to withstand multiple all ins is low. If you preserve a raise/fold range you can either play very tightly and call off appropriately according to the bubble factors and rarely have an opportunity to steal. This is because the assumption is that "all skill is equal" and thus, all players will play the same way. This isn't the case, so what are the implications? The implications are now that either you have to wait for the best spot you can afford to wait for, or you have to try to play much looser before you have 10BBs.
If tight play forces you to go into this ultra tight blind yourself to death strategy or close to it, it would seem that it's of a huge advantage to eliminate the skill factor of short stacks and put them at the mercy of their cards by raising more widely, particularly in early position than any "chart" might suggest.
There's a reason Phil Helmuth has so many bracelets, so you have to at least entertain some of the ways he plays. When he has 8 big blinds, he will still minraise/fold. That is on much slower structures, mind you, but nevertheless, I think the idea of raise/folding down to 9 big blinds isn't all that bad if
1)You are much more likely to have a monster
2)Opponents are unlikely to really adjust their call range all that much between a minraise and a shove
3)You are close to the final table and thus survival is important, but the difference in chips is not nearly as important as the difference between living to see another hand... A double up will make you so much more likely to final table, and a steal will buy you a lot more hands that will make a difference in how other short stacks are now forced to make a move (and they probably are more likely to move in and bust than you). Consider buying 9 more hands when you win, and pretty much having roughly the sam amount of fold equity if you fold and have 6 big blinds or under 4 if you pay big and small blind and
4)You can raise without having the pot odds adjusted for the bubble factor to call. This is tricky. I tend to have a very polarized range. Either I am getting desperate and will raise with any two from UTG or UTG+1 but will do so infrequently enough that there's a real good chance I have a very strong hand, or I have the very strong hand that I've been waiting for. For example, in 3 rotationsI might try this once with air. If there's 7 opponents that's 21 hands. In 20 hands you have about a 50% chance to get a hand in the TT+, AQs+ range (not including AKo). In 30 hands, JJ+, Aks. Since you're also going to be raising with some hands like 88,99 and widening that range in later position when it folds to you, there's a more likely chance you have a premium hand or strong enough hand to call than a poor hand.
Let's look at the math.There are many different ways to dissect this problem depending on how you view bubble factors and whether or not you want to include your equity from raising preflop. I want to just isolate making the raise from the decision once you are raised.
So your risk is worth 1.6 times more than you gain. You are not risking 6 to win 8+2.25+ your 2 back or risking 6 to win 12.25. Instead you are risking 9.6 to win 12.25. With 1.276 to 1 odds adjusted for bubble factors, you are going to have to be 44% to win. With a hand as bad as 23o, you most certainly are not, so there is an argument to folding. You have to then argue why raise at all? Well, if you only raise about twice every 21 hands with a polarized range of either "any two" or TT+,AKo,AQs+ your opponent is pretty much going to have to all in or fold. So he either risks 8 and is against a very tight range where he is behind, or he picks up 4.25. He is risking 8 (and then some because others could wake up with a hand) to win 4.25. If you adjust his decision for bubble factors, he is risking 12.8 to pick up 4.25. But of course when he shoves and gets called he can still win. So if your opponent gets called 60% of the time that he shoves, being 35% to win when he gets called isn't enough. He needs to be 35.7% vs your range of TT+,AQs+,AKo. If we want to get really accurate, we can say there's a 58.2347% chance that you get dealt TT+,AQs+,AKo+ in 21 hands. If you don't raise in 21 hands you will have to raise with whatever you can come up with. So if you factor that in, he only needs to be 34.25%. I actually think his chances are much worse since you probably will widen range when folded to in later position, so the probability of you not raising within 21 hands is probably much lower.
In theory, he should require the exact same range as you to be able to move in on your raising range, and probably tighter because he has to concern himself with other opponents.
So if there are 6 opponents left to act and they need TT+,AQs+,AKo, what's the chances that you get reraised? In reality it SHOULD be only 22% . Slightly more because opponents that have you covered can call off lighter than you as bubble factors are smaller to them than they are to you if they have you covered in chips.
Raising "any two" vs these opponents should be profitable since 77.9% of the time you pick up 2.25 and 22% you lose 2*1.6 or 3.2. That means you can pick up 1.046 big blinds every 21 hands. Hopefully you get a walk, or find another spot, or also at some point find a spot to get your money in good by opponent that makes a mistake, but losing chips at less than 2 big blinds per rotation on average when you are on the final table bubble is not all that bad. You are losing about .26444 per rotation which means if blinds stay the same, you can survive in this manor an average of 45.37 hands if you have 12 big blinds. Obviously blinds go up and as you become shorter, decisions become more desperate. But even so, everyone else will grow more desperate, and you are still giving yourself a good chance of making the final table and make a lot of money from moving up the money.
You can look at this "hands left" and adjust for the blinds going up by calculating your "burn rate" based upon your strategy at the given level and adjust as you become more desperate. I would say when you move to all in or fold mode to just calculate being on autofold from there.
With 45 hands left or even 35 hands left you can afford to wait for JJ,QQ, KK or AA...
If you can find an equivalent spot where your overall expected value is as good as getting your money in with jacks you should go for it. If it's less, you may have to reconsider even if you have JJ+ if the supernit shoves.
But since there's added value in raising, or having fold equity PLUS being ahead when called, you can widen the range, and adjust for spots. However, what you cannot do is try to justify waiting for any better than this.
No comments:
Post a Comment